Matchup: Patriots @ Colts
Sunday Night Football
New England @ Indianapolis
This is a game to consider "stacking" on FanDuel with one of the season's highest over-unders (58) beneath Lucas Oil Stadium's dome. Weather can have a big impact on box-score production this time of year. Patriots and Colts skill-position players don't have to sweat it. ... The Pats' point totals over their last five games are 43, 37, 27, 51, and 43. During that span, Tom Brady has completed 133-of-197 throws (67.5%) for 1,601 yards (8.13 YPA) and an 18:1 TD-to-INT ratio. He's right there with Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning as this week's top quarterback play. ... Brady's target distribution during this five-week stretch: Rob Gronkowski 49; Julian Edelman 43; Brandon LaFell 39;Shane Vereen 29; Tim Wright 13; Danny Amendola 9; James Develin 5; Brian Tyms and Aaron Dobson 2. ... Gronk should duke it out with Jimmy Graham to be this week's top tight end scorer. The Colts allow the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends. ... The lone intimidating member of Indianapolis' back seven is Vontae Davis, who doesn't "shadow" opposing top receivers, instead playing strictly RCB. I'm not betting against LaFell as a WR2/3 play in a game with such a high-scoring projection, but he will likely square off with Davis more than New England's other pass catchers. I'd avoid LaFell in daily leagues this week. ... Edelman ordinarily contends with LCBs (Greg Toler) and slot corners (Darius Butler). While Davis is the No. 2 overall cornerback in Pro Football Focus' grades, Butler is 83rd among 106 qualifiers, and Toler is 91st. Fire up Edelman in both PPR and non-PPR lineups this week.
Amendola's snap rates in the three games before New England's Week 10 bye were 38%, 51%, and 53%. His target totals were 3, 2, and 3. Amendola is a WR5/6. ... Patriots No. 2 tight end Wright's snap percentages during that three-week span were 33%, 29%, and 14% with corresponding target counts of 0, 7, and 0. It would not surprise me if the Patriots increased Wright's usage following the open date, but it's also not something on which I'd be willing to gamble. Wright is a fantasy TE2 until we get sincere evidence that he's a big part of New England's offense. ... It's worth noting that when these clubs met in last January's playoffs, the Patriots attacked the Colts with a voluminous power rushing attack. LeGarrette Blount and Stevan Ridley rumbled for 38-218-6 on the ground while Vereen was a bit player, handling seven touches and totaling 33 scoreless yards. Attempting to forecast Bill Belichick and OCJosh McDaniels' game plans is typically not advised, but there is some reason to believe new Pats power runnerJonas Gray may make for a worthwhile flex option in non-PPR leagues. Indianapolis is allowing a middling 4.25 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season. Through three appearances, Gray has piled up 131 yards on 32 runs (4.09 YPC). ... The Patriots play offense in a very opponent-specific manner, which creates weekly risk for Vereen. But Vereen is averaging 13.3 touches per game since Ridley (ACL) was lost for the season three games ago, and I'd expect Vereen to finish in that workload range against the Colts. He's a flex play in standard leagues and a lower-end RB2 in PPR.
Fantasy's No. 1 overall quarterback scorer, Andrew Luck will enter Sunday night's game having accounted for at least two touchdowns in 9-of-9 games this season. Luck struggled in last January's bout with New England, throwing four interceptions and absorbing four sacks, but still emerged with 336 all-purpose yards and a pair of scores. I don't like Luck quite as much as Brady, Peyton, or Rodgers among Week 11 quarterback starts, but he isn't far off. On the season, New England ranks No. 14 in pass defense, tied for seventh in interceptions (10), and No. 11 in passer rating allowed (85.7). This isn't a great matchup for Luck, but it isn't a scary one, either. ... Luck's target distribution with Reggie Wayne in the lineup this year: T.Y. Hilton 74; Wayne 72; Coby Fleener 41; Dwayne Allen 38; Ahmad Bradshaw 35; Hakeem Nicks 36; Trent Richardson 26; Donte Moncrief 12; Jack Doyle 9. ... The only game in which the Patriots have used Darrelle Revis to shadow an opposing No. 1 receiver was in Week 5 against Sammy Watkins. Otherwise, New England has played straight up in the secondary, leaving Revis at LCB with Brandon Browner at right corner and Kyle Arrington stationed in the slot. Hilton is a "movement" Z receiver and moves around a ton. He will run some routes against Revis, but also plenty against Arrington and Browner. Regardless, Hilton has earned every-week WR1 treatment. ... Wayne doesn't run well anymore, but he still has good hands, gets open underneath, and sees a lot of targets. In projected shootouts like this, Wayne is a solid WR3 in both PPR and non-PPR leagues. Coming off a Week 10 bye, Wayne's 36-year-old legs should be as spry as they've been all year. … Hakeem Nicks is done.
With Wayne (elbow) out in Week 8, Moncrief played 61% of the Colts' snaps and went 7-113-1 on 12 targets. With Wayne back in Week 9, Moncrief played 33%, was barely heard from before garbage time, and secured his lone target for two yards against the Giants. Despite enormous physical gifts, Moncrief can't be trusted as more than a WR5 until the Colts formally demote Nicks and put their stud rookie on the field. ... You know the drill with Allen by now. He's touchdown dependent, but always a good bet to score touchdowns. He's hit pay dirt in all but two games this season. Allen is essentially a poor man's Julius Thomas. ... Keep in mind Allen was on I.R. at the time, but Fleener did see 11 targets in last January's meeting with New England and caught six for 74 yards. In a high-scoring affair, Fleener is an attractive TE1 streamer against a Patriots defense allowing the 13th most fantasy points to tight ends. ... In the three games since ILB Jerod Mayo went on I.R., New England has coughed up 362 yards and two touchdowns on 75 carries (4.83 YPC) by opposing tailbacks. This is a really nice matchup for Ahmad Bradshaw, who tends to handle more work when the Colts are involved in close games and when they play from behind. Either scenario is realistic versus New England's red-hot offense. Expect Bradshaw to operate as Indy's clear-lead back in Week 11. ... Although the matchup looks good on paper, T-Rich tends to be more productive when the Colts are sitting on leads and salting clock. This game seems doubtful to play out in a way that benefits Richardson. In last January's playoff meeting with the Pats -- when New England was even worse in run defense than it is now -- Richardson carried the ball three times and gained one yard. Bench T-Rich in Week 11.
Score Prediction: Patriots 34, Colts 30
