Matchup: Colts @ Texans
Thursday Night Football
Indianapolis @ Houston
Thursday Update: Thursday morning reports indicate the Colts plan to start Matt Hasselbeck against the Texans, giving Andrew Luck's balky throwing shoulder another week of rest. Although Hasselbeck performed reasonably well in last week's spot start against the Jaguars, the dead-armed 40-year-old's field presence severely curbs the big-play potential of receivers like T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief. Hilton and Moncrief remain start-able fantasy commodities on volume alone. As of Thursday around noon, the Vegas total on this game had dipped to 41 points -- lowest of Week 5 -- with Houston now a four-point favorite. Arian Foster should be in store for a generous workload in a game that now best projects to see the Texans either keeping the game close or leading.
Riddled with injury question marks, Thursday night's Colts-Texans game opened Wednesday with a 45-point Vegas total and a "Pick 'Em" line. The total has since dipped to 44.5 with Houston installed as a two-point favorite. ... We don't know whether Andrew Luck (shoulder) will play, and we won't know until pre-game inactives are announced. From a game-projection standpoint, we can only deal in what we do actually know. ... We do know Houston has struggled in all phases of defense, ranking 22nd in Football Outsiders' pass-defense DVOA, and 23rd against the run. The Texans got run out of the building at the Georgia Dome last week, falling behind the Falcons 42-0 until Brian Hoyer engineered three garbage-time touchdown drives. Now facing that same Houston defense on a short week, the Colts' offense should be able to generate ball movement regardless of which quarterback is under center. All Indy skill-position players get a big boost if it's Luck. If it's Matt Hasselbeck -- who missed practice this week with an undisclosed illness -- fantasy expectations still must be lowered across the board. ... This was Luck's target distribution in Weeks 1-3: T.Y. Hilton 28; Donte Moncrief 26; Andre Johnson 18; Phillip Dorsett 12; Coby Fleener 7; Frank Gore and Dwayne Allen 6; Josh Robinson 5. ... This was Hasselbeck's last week: Hilton 13; Fleener 12; Moncrief 9; Gore 7; Dorsett 3; Johnson 2.
With Allen (ankle) listed as probable, Fleener is out of streamer consideration despite last week's big game. In Weeks 1-2 with Allen playing, Fleener posted stat lines of 1-5 and 0-0 on 59% of the snaps. Fleener's playing time ballooned to 88% with Allen out in Weeks 3-4, recording 4-51 and 9-83-1 numbers. Allen is always a decent bet for red-zone TDs when Luck plays. It's hard to imagine using either if Hasselbeck gets the nod. ... The Texans played solid run defense in their first three games before getting creamed by Devonta Freeman and Terron Ward for a combined 33-140-4 rushing line last Sunday. Small-sample early-season data suggests Gore will be a better bet for touchdowns if Luck gets the start, while he should see more passing-game involvement if it's Hasselbeck. ... Although neither had huge games, Hilton and Moncrief are both at worst WR2s regardless of the identity of the Colts' Week 5 quarterback. The matchup is right and both wideouts were peppered with volume from Hasselbeck last week. They'll both be better bets to hit big plays if Luck is Indianapolis' starter.
Despite three straight miserable efforts from Ryan Mallett, coach Bill O'Brien made the pre-Week 5 decision to start Mallett against the Colts after benching him three quarters into last week's shellacking in Atlanta. Mallett lacks anticipation, athleticism, touch, an ability to locate passes consistently, and -- perhaps worst of all -- a genuine comprehension of his own limitations. I could give you a bunch of stats on how porous the Colts' pass defense has been, and it wouldn't matter. Mallett isn't worthy of fantasy consideration going into this game, no matter Thursday night's results. Mallett will remain in danger of weekly in-game benchings. ... Last week's performance by Arian Foster can be thrown out as we focus on the future. The Texans were non-competitive, and Foster played poorly in his first game back from groin surgery, losing a fumble that was returned for six and managing ten yards on eight carries. Foster didn't appear noticeably inhibited during the game and ripped off a 15-yard reception on which he looked like vintage Arian. Of more concern for Foster's Week 5 outlook is the surprising stoutness of Indy's run defense, which ranks No. 11 in Football Outsiders' DVOA and has held opposing running backs to 3.66 yards per carry through four games. Still, Foster is to be treated as a matchup-proof RB1 in season-long leagues whenever he's seeing full workloads. After Foster was limited to 11 all-purpose touches in his 2015 debut against Atlanta, expect him to push toward the 17-20 touch range Thursday night. If Luck is inactive, Foster would stand to benefit because the Texans would be more likely to stay competitive and/or win outright, resulting in positive game script.
Mallett's target distribution on the season: DeAndre Hopkins 40; Cecil Shorts 24; Nate Washington 18; Jonathan Grimes 13; Garrett Graham 11; Chris Polk 10; Keith Mumphery 9; Foster 5; C.J. Fiedorowicz 4. ... Hopkins has been a vacuum in the early going, seeing weekly target totals of 13, 11, 15, and 22. That won't change with Washington (hamstring) and Shorts (shoulder) out against the Colts, who may be missing top CB Vontae Davis (foot). Expect Mallett to continue leaning heavily on his top wideout. Leading the NFL in targets through four games and ranked No. 4 in fantasy wideout scoring, Hopkins is an every-week WR1. ... Although Indianapolis has been trounced by opposing No. 2/slot-type receivers this year -- e.g. Percy Harvin 5-79-1, Eric Decker 8-97-1, Kendall Wright 7-95-1, Allen Hurns 11-116-1 -- that is in large part due to Davis' presence, and the Colts' lack of a viable No. 2 corner in the absence of LCB Greg Toler (neck). Toler will return on Thursday night, while Davis is questionable at best. Fifth-round pick Mumphery is the favorite for second receiver work against the Colts, but could share time with fellow rookies Jaelen Strong and Chandler Worthy. At 6-foot, 215, Mumphery ran 4.54 coming out of Michigan State. Through his first four NFL games, Mumphery has managed six catches for 79 scoreless yards on 12 targets. Mumphery is best approached as a desperate dart-throw WR3 option for fantasy owners in dire need of receiver help.
Score Prediction: Colts 23, Texans 20
