The Final Volume
It's hard to believe, but there are only five days left in the season. This will be the final issue of Saves and Steals in 2015. I'll return next January to help you prepare for the season. In the meantime, we have a lot to cover from a dramatic week. Let's get to it.
I suppose I'm contractually obligated to begin with my two cents on the Papelbon-Harper fiasco. On Monday, I noticed a lot of twitter arguments over the use of “choke” to describe Papelbon's actions. Whether you want to say Jonathan Papelbon choked Bryce Harper or merely shoved him in the neck, the distinction seems unimportant.
Harper hit a routine fly out. There is no reason to run that play out. Sure, jog to first just in case (which he did). Don't hurt or tire yourself over a ball that is caught over 99.9 percent of the time. Harper was just as likely to reach base on a swinging strikeout. That's how often those pop ups are flubbed.
Papelbon getting on him about that is ridiculous. Papelbon assaulting Harper after being told to shut up (in more colorful terms) is even more ridiculous.
Papelbon described the fight as a spat between two brothers. Let's not mince words. It's simple, these are two extremely successful athletes who have earned their arrogance. It's quite likely that their personalities simply conflict. Given the backdrop of a failed season, it's hardly a surprise tensions boiled over.
Papelbon stole the headlines, but Bruce Rondon, Greg Holland, and Huston Street require a few words too. I've complained bitterly about the discrepancy between Rondon's stuff and his results. The Tigers brass is also frustrated. They've sent their embattled closer home to do some self-reflection. I can almost guarantee the Tigers will add multiple relievers over the offseason. I could see them going in on Darren O'Day and/or Tyler Clippard. A trade for Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, or Joaquin Benoit would hardly surprise me.
Holland will miss the rest of 2015 and all of 2016 for Tommy John surgery. The Royals will non-tender him after the season. Wade Davis' value just exploded in all formats. Street will miss the rest of the regular season for a mundane reason – a grade one groin strain. It's the mildest of strains, but it still takes time to heal. Setup man Joe Smith is already sidelined with a sprained ankle. We'll get to the Angels backup plan in a moment.
The steals front lacks controversy. Dee Gordon is just one stolen base behind Billy Hamilton for the league lead. Of course, Hamilton is out for the season. All Gordon need do is stay healthy and continue reaching base for five more days. Kevin Pillar was the base stealer of the week. He was the only guy to swipe three bags without getting caught.
Since this is the final issue, I'm going to completely rework the tiers based on actual performance rather than projected outputs. It's possible that some of the Tier 5 pitchers are available on your waiver wire. Street would be a Tier 2 reliever. Holland and Papelbon would be Tier 4 due to poor ratios and a lack of saves respectively.
Editor's Note: Play one-day fantasy baseball for cash! FanDuel is hosting a $100,000 league for Wednesday's MLB games. It's just $5 to join and first place wins $10,000. Starts tonight at 7:05pm ET. Enter now!
Tier 1: Elite (7)
Trevor Rosenthal, St. Louis Cardinals
Mark Melancon, Pittsburgh Pirates
Andrew Miller, New York Yankees
Jeurys Familia, New York Mets
Craig Kimbrel, San Diego Padres
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
This season, Rosenthal and Melancon are neck-and-neck for top honors. Neither are truly elite relievers, but a high quantity of saves overcomes the (very) modest shortcomings in their skill sets. Melancon leads the league with 51 saves while Rosenthal checks in second with 48 saves. Rosenthal offers a stout strikeout rate, but his 1.27 WHIP is below average. Melancon kept runners off the bases, but his 7.23 K/9 posed a modest challenge for his owners.
Miller would be the top dog if he hadn't missed a healthy chunk of the season. He still closed out 36 games with a 1.82 ERA, 14.71 K/9, and a 0.84 WHIP. Owners of Dellin Betances were undoubtedly disappointed by his eight save season. He still did his best to cover his cost with elite ratios.
Familia was the revelation of the season for the Mets. I worry we've seen his very best, but he should be a valuable closer next season too. With 42 saves, a 1.88 ERA (2.79 FIP), and a 1.00 WHIP, it's possible he'll be overrated in 2016 drafts. He certainly wasn't this year. His overall numbers are just shy of the top relievers.
Jansen would have been among the top three if he hadn't missed the first month and a half. Despite rehabbing for one-quarter of the season, he still saved 34 games with a 2.36 ERA, 14.13 K/9, and 0.77 WHIP.
After a terrible start to the year, Kimbrel recovered. He still had his worst full season, but that's a testament to his past exploits. With a 2.62 ERA, 13.11 K/9, 1.06 WHIP, and 38 saves, his owners still got full value from his pricey draft cost.
For Chapman, the letdown came from a lack of opportunities. His 1.69 ERA, 15.75 K/9, and 1.19 WHIP are fairly typical for him. If he had saved another eight games, he would have been a candidate for the top reliever.
Tier 2: Full Timers and Tolleson (6)
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers
Shawn Tolleson, Texas Rangers
David Robertson, Chicago White Sox
Brad Boxberger, Tampa Bay Rays
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
After a breakout 2014 season, Britton broke out yet again. A surge in strikeout rate has propelled him to the top of my closer leaderboards. Home runs remain a problem for the sinker specialist. It's not a huge issue since nearly 80 percent of his balls in play are on the ground. I do wish he had saved more than 34 games in 61 appearances.
Rodriguez used to be one of the hardest throwing relievers in the league. Back then, a 94 mph fastball qualified you as a fireballer. Now we kind of just shrug at that heat. K-Rod averaged below 90 mph this year, but he's become a masterful changeup specialist. He should remain relevant for years to come. His 2.25 ERA, 9.64 K/9, 0.86 WHIP, and 38 saves make him one of the top values in fantasy baseball.
Technically, Familia was the most valuable reliever to land a closer job mid-season. However, he snagged his job in early April. Tolleson's first save was on May 20, and he tabbed 34 of them over the season. He profiles as a setup man more than a closer, and I expect the Rangers to add a ninth inning guy over the offseason. If they don't, he's a serviceable closer.
Robertson began the year as a clear top five closer. As the summer waned, he ran into trouble with home runs. A 3.23 ERA is below average for a reliever, but his 0.93 WHIP, 12.03 K/9, and 33 saves were still valuable.
Boxberger and Allen both had mixed seasons. High strikeout rates and healthy save totals ensured their owners were well compensated for their investment. Both pitchers had trouble with their ERA and WHIP. Two category relievers are fine so long as you have other guys to pick up the slack.
Tier 3: The Mid-Tier (4)
Santiago Casilla, San Francisco Giants
Wade Davis, Kansas City Royals
Ken Giles, Philadelphia Phillies
Luke Gregerson, Houston Astros
Based on his stuff, Casilla is one of the least impressive closers in the league. Actually, his profile is similar to Tolleson. There was a brief moment when Sergio Romo nearly nudged Casilla into the eighth inning. His 37 saves, 2.84 ERA, 9.63 K/9, and 1.30 WHIP are a perfect representation of the mid-tier closer.
Davis and Giles are elite relievers who spent most of the year as setup men. They've both closed just 14 games. Giles has a 1.61 ERA with 11.15 K/9 and a 1.18 WHIP. He throws gas, and his breaking ball is among the best in the league. With five games to go, Davis outdid Giles with a 0.97 ERA, 10.30 K/9, and a 0.82 WHIP.
Gregerson and Casilla are the bread of this Davis & Giles sandwich. The righty saved 30 games with 8.69 K/9, a 3.20 ERA, and 0.97 WHIP. All those numbers are right around league average for a full-time closer.
Tier 4: Mid-Season Guys (4)
Hector Rondon, Chicago Cubs
Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays
Brad Ziegler, Arizona Diamondbacks
A.J. Ramos, Miami Marlins
Rondon is the outlier in this group. He started the season as a closer, mysteriously lost the job, then later recovered it. He's not a dominating reliever like Chapman, but he does get the job done. His 1.72 ERA, 9.00 K/9, and 1.01 WHIP are all useful. So are his 28 saves.
The remaining trio matriculated to the ninth inning mid-season. Osuna has taken advantage of a hot Blue Jays roster to lock down 20 saves. He has a 2.36 ERA, 9.57 K/9, and 0.87 WHIP.
In many ways, this was Ziegler's best season. He's the poor man's Britton without the strikeouts. A 1.91 ERA and 0.94 WHIP are fantastic, but that's not his true talent level. Expect regression next year. Actually, expect to find him back in the eighth inning. His 29 saves were offset by a low 4.64 K/9.
The overall numbers for Ramos are better than his ranking. I inched him down below the others in this tier due to an ugly rough patch. He would have lost his job if Carter Capps had been healthy at the time. Still, anybody who grabbed his 2.37 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 10.80 K/9, and 30 saves off the waiver wire deserves a pat on the back. I picked him up in a half dozen league, but I only had the patience to out-wait Steve Cishek in one of them.
Tier 5: The Replacements (9)
Kevin Jepsen, Glen Perkins, Minnesota Twins
Arodys Vizcaino, Atlanta Braves
John Axford, Colorado Rockies
Tom Wilhelmsen, Seattle Mariners
Robbie Ross, Boston Red Sox
Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics
Casey Janssen, Washington Nationals
Trevor Gott, Mike Morin, Los Angeles Angels
Neftali Feliz, Detroit Tigers
Perkins is healthy(ish), but Jepsen remains the ninth inning guy. For those who are curious, Perkins' work would rank him in Tier 3. Jepsen has succeeded in spite of himself. Suspect command and a low strikeout rate suggest he isn't a late inning reliever. He's saved 14 games for the Rays and Twins.
Vizcaino has probably shown just enough to keep the Braves from exploring the closer market this offseason. With his 98 mph fastball, 10.16 K/9, 1.74 ERA, and 1.26 WHIP, he was a solid fantasy find in August.
Can you believe how many pitchers Axford outperformed. Granted, we're left with the dregs after the Ax. His 4.36 ERA, 9.89 K/9, and 1.55 WHIP remind me of vintage Kevin Gregg. Sure, you got 25 saves out of him, but at what cost?
Wilhelmsen is probably unavailable tonight after recording five outs yesterday. Carson Smith also snagged four outs. Anybody could step up tonight. Wilhelmsen's 12 late-season saves probably salvaged a few fantasy seasons. His ratios leave something to be desired.
The Red Sox never solved their bullpen once Koji Uehara hit the skids. Ross is the latest nom du jour. He's saved six games. His 3.92 ERA, 7.99 K/9, and 1.31 WHIP aren't encouraging.
Doolittle missed almost the entire season. He saved just two games. He serves as a sort of inflection point. From a full season perspective, you were better off not rostering the remaining names. Of course, you probably only targeted them once they earned ninth inning duties. And that's totally valid.
Janssen hasn't saved a single game, but he's probably the guy for the final handful of games. Papelbon has been suspended into oblivion, and Drew Storen lost a fight with a wall. Janssen has a 5.08 ERA, 6.00 K/9, and 1.18 WHIP.
Gott is a hard thrower who doesn't strike me as ready for a high leverage role. He has a low swinging strike rate over 45 innings despite a 97 mph fastball. Mike Morin could also snipe a save opportunity despite a high ERA.
Last and least is Feliz. The former Rangers closer will hold the fort after Rondon was sent home. Unlike Janssen and Gott, Feliz actually saved some games this season – 10 of them. He also has a 6.08 ERA, 7.42 K/9, and a 1.50 WHIP. It wasn't worth it.
*****************************
Injured
Joe Nathan, Detroit Tigers
Adam Ottavino, Colorado Rockies
Jason Grilli, Atlanta Braves
Koji Uehara, Boston Red Sox
Greg Holland, Kansas City Royals
Huston Street, Los Angeles Angels
Britton is back, but we've lost Holland and Street.
The Deposed
Chad Qualls
Joaquin Benoit
LaTroy Hawkins
Miguel Castro
Steve Cishek
Addison Reed
Neftali Feliz
Fernando Rodney
Brett Cecil
Jenrry Mejia
Drew Storen
Tyler Clippard
Joakim Soria
Jim Johnson
Tommy Kahnle
Alex Wilson
Edward Mujica
Carson Smith
Glen Perkins
Bruce Rondon
Jonathan Papelbon
Technically, both Rondon and Papelbon were “excused” from the rest of the season. I'm counting it.
*****************************
The Steals Department
Last week, we discussed targeting pitchers and catchers instead of speedy hitters. With so few games left on the calendar, it's the only way to predictably gain stolen bases off the wire. Otherwise, you just have the roll the dice on a guy like Pillar or Inciarte and hope they take three bags. They probably won't.
Target Reds against Jon Lester today. Tyson Ross should pitch on Sunday against the Padres. We'll probably see A.J. Burnett against the Reds on Friday. I expect Jake Arrieta and Gerrit Cole to be reserved for the play-in game. Remember, Kurt Suzuki, Derek Norris, Miguel Montero, A.J. Pierzynski, Francisco Cervelli, and Brayan Pena are all exploitable catchers.
