Drop Trends and Roundtable
Last week I mentioned that we've significantly expanded the number of articles we've been doing in the Season Pass section this season and now I want to provide you with samples of some recent articles from the Season Pass so that you can get a sense for exactly what it is we do.
The first sample is from our weekly roundtable, which is basically a conversation between four Rotoworld writers on a topic of the hosts choosing. This week it was Michael's turn to host.
Here is the first part of that roundtable:
As the NHL hits the halfway mark of the season, what non-star player do you think is ready to their game to the next level?
You can follow us at @RyanDadoun, @mfinewaxhockey, @CoreAbbott, and @kbrownroto.
Kevin Brown: This may be cheating, but I think David Perron’s move to the Penguins has him set up to take a huge leap forward. We have already seen what a similar move has done for Patric Hornqvist, whose spot Perron is likely to fill in the short term, and the improvement in supporting cast he’ll receive by going from Edmonton to Pittsburgh is off the charts. I think it’s at least plausible that he averages a point-per-game from here on out.
Ryan Dadoun: Moving from Edmonton to Pittsburgh provides about the biggest fantasy boost possible for a winger, so I agree that Perron should do considerably better. I'll throw Jonathan Drouin into the mix. He was injured early, but he has played alongside Stamkos lately and has a lot of upside. Now that he has 30 games under his belt, I think we should start to see more from him.
Corey Abbott: I think we might have to wait another season before Jonathan Drouin shows everybody what he's capable of. Tampa Bay still doesn't give him much ice time and he gets shuffled around quite a lot. I think their cautious approach will hurt his value and they will be a little more liberal with him next year. I like what I've been seeing from Derick Brassard. He centers the top line alongside Rick Nash and he has a cushy spot on the power play as well, where he leads the team in points. Brassard is already on pace for a career year and he could end up with close to 70 points if he continues to produce at his current rate.
Michael Finewax: The selection of Brassard is not bad. I thought he would have lost some time on the power play with the return of Derek Stepan but that has not happened as both are in the top five in power play time. Perron is a no-brainer as he gets a primo opportunity with Sidney Crosby. I think that Drouin is still at least a year away and he could still hit the proverbial wall as a first year NHLer.
The player I see taking his game to the next level may surprise you but it's Dougie Hamilton. The Bruins have been using him to quarterback the power play and he leads the Bruins in ice time with the man advantage. He is tied for 18th in scoring among defensemen and is only 21. He certainly has a lot of talent around him with the likes of David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, Milan Lucic etc.
Kevin Brown: I love Hamilton as well and he’s someone I highlighted in my column this week (shameless plug). The conventional thinking is that the return of Zdeno Chara from injury is taking a chunk out of his production, but a close look at the numbers reveals that’s just not true. He’s racking up shots on goal like crazy and I think it’s just a matter of time before he explodes.
That said, I’m also hesitant to agree on Drouin for this season since his role alongside Stamkos seems so tenuous. I probably wouldn’t take much for coach Jon Cooper to bump him off that unit, which would almost certainly torpedo his short-term value. I really like Drouin as a keeper league target, but I’m less enthused about him this year.
Ryan Dadoun: I agree that Drouin is far from a safe bet, but his upside is high and he has the potential to see a substantial jump in production compared to where he's coming from. When I think of the way certain players get eased into the NHL, I tend to think back to Stamkos given that they severely limited his playing time in the first half of his rookie campaign and his production was nothing special as a result (six goals and 19 points in 47 games through January), but his playing time skyrocketed after that, allowing him to record 27 points in his last 32 contests. Now, a lot has changed with the Lightning since then and Drouin isn't the equivalent of Stamkos, but it's an example of how a talented player can take off after some growing pains if they're given the opportunity.
If you want to read more, the rest is in the Season Pass section.
I also wanted to provide you with a section of the Drop Trends. As I said last week, the Drop Trends are basically the reverse of the Waiver Wired article. In the Drop Trends we look at the players that were dumped the most on Saturday and discuss whether it's wise to follow the pack or be a contrarian.
From this week's article:
Saturday's drop list was dominated by Kris Versteeg, who will miss a month due to a hand injury. That will be discussed in detail below, but just speaking in general terms, handling injuries is one of the most difficult tasks for a fantasy owner. If you have a free injury slot than it can be a simple matter, but a lot of the times you won't have that luxury. Deciding who is worthy of occupying a bench spot while he remains on the sidelines is challenging, but it ultimately comes down to how long he's projected to miss and how valuable he is when he's healthy. If dropping him now means you'll have a significantly worse team in several weeks, then as hard as it is, it's often better to keep the player in question on the bench.
Does that apply to Versteeg though? Well let's get into that...
Kris Versteeg (CHI - LW/RW)
Dropped: 4,314 times
Why: He will miss about a month with a hand injury.
Recommendation: The mass exodus isn't surprising, but it is nevertheless an overreaction. He might not be a star player, but he has 27 points and a plus-14 rating in 34 games this season. That's hard to replace and if there's any way you can afford to rid his injury out, you'll likely be better in the long-term for it. Part of the reason people are dropping him might be linked to Chicago's decision to call up Teuvo Teravainen. They might be thinking that Teravainen will stick around when Versteeg is healthy and thus diminish the veteran's role and value. That's certainly a risk, but it's far too early to jump to that conclusion. Teravainen has significant upside, but it remains to be seen if he's ready for a top-six role and even if he is, the Blackhawks might not feel comfortable using the 20-year-old in that role during the final months of the season when they have a veteran option that's worked out rather well for them. At the least, I recommend you hold onto Versteeg for a little bit longer so you can get a sense for if Teravainen will work out before jumping ship.
Jake Allen (STL - G)
Dropped: 1,585 times
Why: Martin Brodeur and Brian Elliott might be squeezing Allen out of the picture.
Recommendation: Any time a team carries three healthy goaltenders, it turns into a nightmare scenario for fantasy owners. Ultimately, Elliott is still likely to get the bulk of the Blues' starts while Allen and Brodeur will both get opportunities to serve as the team's backup for now. Neither Brodeur or Allen have much fantasy value in that scenario though and I consequently can't fault people for dropping Allen, even if I'm not yet convinced that Brodeur has firmly pushed Allen to the number three spot.
Here's a link to the rest of it, although it requires the Season Pass.
Some of the other stuff we do on the season pass includes rankings of players by their fantasy value, both by position, overall, and in keeper leagues. We also have two weekly Prospect Report articles (one that focuses on the CHL and another that highlights AHL/NCAA/European players), and an article entitled hits, blocks, and draws that focuses on players that excel in those less popular (at least in fantasy circles) categories.
And of course, as mentioned last week, we've upped the number of articles we're doing on the main site too. This weekly Tuesday column is relatively new and next week it will be back to being original content rather than samples.
