Dose: Durant Heads Home
This is a strange week of basketball. From 12 games on Martin Luther King Jr. Day to just two games last night, we hit an unofficial breather exactly at the halfway point of the season.
This means playoff league owners should already be making moves with those final weeks in mind. If you’re sitting in the top half of the playoff bracket, don’t worry about the next month or two if it means getting a difference-making player that’s undervalued right now.
Roto league owners need to look at their standings and be realistic about what they can achieve. The ‘sprint’ starts in the last third or quarter of the season – but in this next month you can still make real progress in a bad category. Consider this your last time to take a 30,000-foot view.
Lastly, once you’ve figured out where you stand, be willing to make a decisive move even if it means going against the conventional play. Give more value in a trade if it helps in the categories you are best suited to advance in. Target bottom-feeding owners that are trying to save their seasons. Go for the gut pickup that helps your category deficiency, dropping a lower-end but recognized fantasy asset you wouldn’t otherwise drop.
Cashing in a 12-team league usually requires a top-3 finish. Winning significant money requires that you’re better than 11 other owners. The best of the best need a little bit of luck to win, and in competitive leagues you almost always have to hit on a couple of well-thought out gambles.
On that note – here’s to health, wealth and lots of luck for the rest of the year.
Also, I want to take a moment and thank you guys, the readers, and all of my many bosses at NBC/Rotoworld. We were able to bring home the Fantasy Basketball Writer of the Year award for yours truly at the FSTA conference in Vegas, and we also got the award for best content as a site with multiple sports.
One of my mentors, Evan Silva, won the award for best football series (Matchups). His in-depth analysis inspired me to go deep in the Dose and later on in the Bruski Breakdown. If you’re not following him for football you’re dead money – plain and simple. Matthew Pouliot entered the FSWA Hall of Fame, and all of us at Rotoworld wouldn’t be here if it weren’t for him.
I know for a fact that without this forum and the knowledge we all collectively share, there’s no way I progress to the point where that award is a possibility – so thank you all.
And with that little bit of business out of the way, let’s Dose already.
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THE CIRCUS HEADS TO WASHINGTON
Before I go in on the Thunder here, Kevin Durant (19 points, eight boards, eight assists, 9-of-24 FGs, 0-of-8 3PTs) landed funny on his right (shooting) elbow in last night's win over the Heat. He stayed in the game at the time but then left with about a minute to go and the game decided. The Thunder turn around and play tonight in Washington, where all sorts of media is going to be because of his free agency situation. Though Durant said he’d play it would be an interesting time for the Thunder to keep him away from the circus. It’ll be up to Durant but it’s something to watch for.
Going in on them, the Thunder are going to be a high-powered mess and that’s something we cover at the end of my podcast this week. They brought in Dion Waiters (1-of-9 FGs) and he’s very duplicative of Reggie Jackson (16 points, 7-of-9 FGs, one assist, two threes), and neither of them are going to be able to get into much of a rhythm playing next to each other – let alone next to ball-dominant guys like Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. I’d expect both guards to struggle in fantasy leagues and in general, though the Thunder are going to run through the second half of the season like their pants are on fire – which is great for fantasy values of the key guys since they’ll play more and play harder.
For what it's worth I hung onto Reggie Jackson in a deeper, 12-team big money league. The wire options weren't great and the trade deadline is right around the corner. I think it's a 50/50 proposition that he gets dealt, which would likely help his value, and more on that in a second. Waiters is dead weight to me even if Jackson gets dealt, and it's more accurate to say that I'm willing to tip my cap to him if he proves me wrong.
The Thunder’s problem is that they continue to lack an inside presence. Kendrick Perkins still gets minutes because OKC can’t and won’t quit the guy, and as fun as Steven Adams (10 points, three boards, one block, 19 minutes) is he doesn’t give you much on offense.
I had been entertaining the idea of re-opening the Thunder’s championship window, after closing it years ago when the they passed up on re-signing James Harden so they could keep Perkins. Basically I saw a small sliver of opportunity where Scott Brooks was forced to play Adams and the young guys were getting developed due to injuries. Durant and Westbrook would come back to a more balanced and battle tested team with Perkins getting 10 or less mpg. So I 'entertained' the idea.
Not anymore.
They’re looking at all sorts of panic moves (see Lopez, Brook) and they have to figure out how to not get fleeced on a Reggie Jackson deal. That or keep him around and see where the chemistry between he, Waiters and the rest of the team goes. That’s before we get to coaching and organizational question marks.
Serge Ibaka continued to play away from the hoop and finished with nine points, four rebounds, one block and one three. Now that he’s relied upon to spread the floor for the Westbrook and Durant Show his aggressiveness seems to be down. He’s blocking just 2.2 shots per game compared to 2.7 the year before and 3.0 the year before that, and he’s down 1.6 boards per game with that number being split right down the middle on the offensive and defensive ends. His field goal percentage is down by 6.5 percent (47.1) over last season and this is my most recent reminder that hitting an extra 3-pointer per game isn’t always a good thing for a big man.
HOT OR NOT
I don’t think the Heat are going to make the playoffs. I wouldn’t bet my dog on that or anything, but they’re a Dwyane Wade or Chris Bosh injury away from that being an easy call. Heck, an injury to Luol Deng might do it. Wade returned to action from a hamstring injury in last night's loss to the Thunder, scoring 18 points on 8-of-18 shooting with two rebounds, six assists and one steal. Owners should already be plotting sell-now scenarios once Wade can string a bunch of solid games together.
Deng (29 minutes, eight points, four rebounds, one three) played through the flu and isn’t traveling for tonight’s game against the Hornets, but the bigger news was Hassan Whiteside’s Grade-1 ankle sprain. Whiteside is day-to-day and it sounds like he escaped serious injury. He was on his way to a nice game with 10 points on 5-of-5 shooting, two boards and one block in 11 minutes, and combined with his Boogie-aided Sacramento stinker this is both a buy-low and must-add moment if he was dropped. The Heat are going to rely on him and he may be one of the healthier guys on the squad, which is scary given his not-so-great history himself.
Mario Chalmers sucked again, scoring six points on 2-of-4 shooting with one rebound, three assists, one trey and four turnovers. I’m still not dropping the guy. Unless something funky happens he’ll be running the show at some point, and probably doing a not-so-great job at doing it, but with numbers that easily work in fantasy leagues.
If you’re in need of a big man give Chris Andersen (seven points, six boards, one block, 29 minutes) a look. He’s been returning low-end value and he should max out his minutes if Whiteside misses time.
JUST DON’T BREAK ANYTHING
I don’t know about you guys but if you bought what I was selling during the preseason about Kawhi Leonard you’re elated that he’s back and paranoid about every little piece of contact he faces. And no, he won’t hit my preseason ratings because he has probably already missed too many games, but hopefully you guys see what I see in regards to his fantasy potential. He scored 17 points on 6-of-13 shooting (including three treys) with a season-high 15 rebounds, three assists, two steals and one block in just 31 minutes, as he returns second value in a year marred by stops and starts.
The rest of the Spurs’ box score was standard fare in their win over the Nuggets, which is to say you never truly know what you’re going to get. Tim Duncan scored 16 points with five rebounds, two steals and one block, and Manu Ginobili was active off the bench with 11 points, four rebounds, eight assists and one steal. Owners in 8-cat, 12-team leagues that didn’t panic about Ginobili’s potential for missed games have enjoyed a very useful, top-100 player.
Tony Parker has been a cut or three below Ginobili not just for the missed games, but his production hasn’t been all that great when on the floor. That said, he might be ready to step into some mid-to-late round production after an 18-point, four-rebound, and seven-assist night in 32 minutes. I think he’ll trend toward late-round production because he doesn’t need to carry the load and he’ll probably take some more time off, but he should certainly be owned in all 8-cat standard formats. In 9-cat, he should probably be owned but it’s not clear-cut with just top-175 value on a per-game basis so far.
Danny Green had an off-shooting night with just six points on 2-of-12 from the field to go with two treys, two boards, two assists, one steal and one block. I’ve written numerous places that his year is not a fluke and ‘if’ you want to call this a buy low line I’m all about it.
OIL AND WATER
The Denver Stiffs had a good writeup on the Nuggets, and specifically in regard to Brian Shaw’s pregame discussion that reading between the lines focused on Kenneth Faried. Watch the pregame video for yourself if you’re so inclined, but the gist is that he wants more energy from Denver’s energy guy and these two just aren’t on the same page.
The good news is that Faried played great and finished with 26 points on 9-of-17 shooting (8-of-12 FTs), 14 rebounds and no steals or blocks in 37 minutes. The Manimal has been a top-50 play over the past month and it still doesn’t feel like he has reached his ceiling, but make no mistake this isn’t a peachy scenario for him. It feels like Shaw could turn on him at any time and at the same time Faried isn’t selling out (as in playing break-neck ball) for a guy that hasn’t had his back.
There has been a considerable amount of Jusuf Nurkic remorse after his slower week, and he made a noticeable effort to stay out of foul trouble and ended up with zero steals and zero blocks in the process. I’m nowhere near panicking as the guy has barely fallen below the cut line in 12-team formats, during what may end up being his worst week on a go-forward basis. He lasted 26 minutes on the court and went for 10 and nine with two assists, looking plenty skilled to handle the position going forward. It's just a matter of time before he learns the nuances of staying on the floor without losing his aggression.
Arron Afflalo had a solid night with 21 points, three treys, four boards, two assists and three steals, but as usual you guys know he is a late-round player at best due to well-covered fantasy deficiencies. Jameer Nelson put up an empty eight-point, three-rebound, and six-assist line devoid of any money counting stats, and he's a guy that belongs on the wire. Randy Foye played 14 minutes with five points and one assist, and he’ll surely be looking to cut into the guard rotation after carrying the team last season.
NEWS AND NOTES
LaMarcus Aldridge’s thumb injury has been kept under wraps in Portland, and all anybody knows is that he will have an MRI later this week. He was evaluated by a specialist yesterday and this sounds like the swelling needs to go down before they can do the MRI, but that’s a total guess.
All in all it smells like a week-to-week situation rather than day-to-day, and there’s not a whole lot to get excited about in his absence. I’d order the pickups as follows: Chris Kaman (must-own), Meyers Leonard (12-team speculative add), Dorell Wright (flier, 12-teams), Thomas Robinson (14-16 teams), Joel Freeland (16 teams), Victor Claver (30 teams).
George Hill (groin) was a full participant in practice yesterday and he has a pretty good shot of playing tonight. This puts the craptastic group of C.J. Watson, Donald Sloan, Solomon Hill and Rodney Stuckey out to pasture. If you want to ride C.J. Miles until the wheels fall off go for it. He’s been solid lately but his injury and consistency issues are well-documented. Hill’s return isn’t going to help that, and Hill himself should be owned across the board.
Kevin Martin (wrist) and Nikola Pekovic (ankles) are game-time decisions for tonight’s game against the Mavs. Martin’s theoretic return will certainly hurt the value of everybody from Thaddeus Young in the frontcourt all the way down to Mo Williams at point guard, but there’s no way on God’s green earth that you’ll rip Gorgui Dieng away from my rosters. Pek isn’t going to stay healthy and there’s no guarantee that he has the cachet to keep the youngster off the floor.
Kobe Bryant (rest) is questionable for tonight’s game against the Pelicans but Byron Scott thinks he will play. Owners should plan for exactly that and depending on Kobe’s willingness to pass, that can either be a good thing for the rest of the rotation or a bad thing. ‘Facilitating Kobe’ could be the rising tide to lift all boats, but I don’t want to get all crazy predicting improvement for Scott’s hard-to-watch basketball team. Ronnie Price (elbow) is questionable, boosting Jeremy Lin’s recommended-own status in most standard formats. Tarik Black (ankle) is out, leaving a big hole in the frontcourt for Robert Sacre to step into.
Jrue Holiday (ankle) is questionable for that game and he’s in the secret injury club, since we’ll all be kept in the dark until the final moments. Anthony Davis (toe) is probable and that means the end of Alexis Ajinca’s reign of terror in the NBA.
Deron Williams (ribs) has been ruled out for tonight’s game against the Kings and that means more Jarrett Jack show. Williams is traveling with the team and owners will want to walk Jack all the way to the cliff because of his ceiling if everything breaks correctly for him in Brooklyn.
Kemba Walker (knee) was able to practice and that bodes well for his chances of playing tonight against the Heat. There hasn’t been a real fantasy beneficiary so owners can watch and see how he and Big Al Jefferson play after a few weeks on the shelf for the Big Cat.
Tobias Harris reportedly suffered a “pretty bad sprain” last week and as usual nobody knew about the severity of it until this week. Orlando and New Orleans have surpassed Milwaukee as the worst-injury reporting cities in the NBA.
