Don't count your chickens
As a follow-up to Ryan Dadoun's edition of In the Crease on Tuesday, we are going to look at some teams that have begun the season strongly that will be in a serious battle to maintain their early playoff spots.
We are a long way away from stressing over where a team sits in the standings, as there is still plenty of time for jockeying for positioning. However, it's interesting to speculate which teams are for real and which ones are just riding a wave of success.
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Toronto Maple Leafs
The inconsistent consistency of the Maple Leafs is really something. Toronto still gets outshot by the opposition most nights, so there's a heavy reliance on goaltenders Jonathan Bernier and James Reimer to steal games. The Leafs have six wins when they have had less shots than their opposition, which ties them for first in the league. Playing with fire like this leads to varied results, so some nights they can defeat teams like Chicago, Boston and the Islanders while on others they lose to struggling clubs like Colorado and Arizona. Toronto has been rolling of late with a 7-2-1 record in their last 10 outings.
The Leafs' offense has done an excellent job of keeping them close on some occasions when their goalies haven't had to stand on their heads and Phil Kessel has unsurprising been a major part of that. He's tied for third in NHL scoring with 21 points in 16 games. However, the team needs more secondary production. A healthy Joffrey Lupul would help, but he can't seem to avoid getting hurt. More is also expected of Nazem Kadri, who has seven points in 16 contests. Leo Komarov has provided the team with some depth scoring, with 11 points in 16 games, and he has good value in deeper leagues where hitting is a category.
The collapses of the Leafs have been well documented over the past few seasons so they'll be under the microscope as the 2014-15 campaign progresses, especially during the second half. The Atlantic Division is extremely tight at the moment and that is unlikely to change. Boston, Detroit and Ottawa are all within two points of the Leafs for the third slot. Keeping a playoff spot will be a difficult task.
New York Islanders
The Islanders have had a dream start for a team that finished 26th overall last season and doesn't have their first-round pick for the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. New York gave up that pick to Buffalo in the Thomas Vanek trade. New York sits one point behind Pittsburgh for top spot in the Metropolitan Division and they have won four straight.
The club's determination to not make their 2015 selection a lottery pick led to plenty of off-season roster changes. Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy have brought offense from the back end, while Nikolay Kulemin was recently promoted to the top line alongside John Tavares and Kyle Okposo. Mikhail Grabovski will always have highs and lows associated with his game, but he's chipped in seven points in 12 games. Jaroslav Halak has battled some consistency issues, but he's been stopping everything of late with back-to-back shutouts.
The Islanders have received a breakout performance from Brock Nelson, who has racked up seven goals and 15 points in 15 games. He's sporting a 20.6 shooting percentage, which is a 10-point improvement from the 2013-14 season. It's far-fetched to believe that Nelson is a point-per-game player, so a slowdown should be expected. He'll have a good season because he gets plenty of action on a good power play, but if you were planning to sell high on him then that probably isn't a bad idea.
New York will need more stability in their crease and for scoring beyond the Tavares line to keep up in order to maintain their position as a playoff club. It's a feasible goal even if they fall into a Wild Card spot, but the competition between the Islanders, Capitals, Rangers, Flyers and Devils is sure to heat up in the Metropolitan Division.
Calgary Flames
The Flames were viewed as a potential lottery candidate going into the 2014-15 season. Seeing them with a 9-6-2 record and the third spot in the Pacific Division is probably the surprise story of the early part of the year. Sure, Nashville leads the Central, but they were viewed as a playoff contender with Pekka Rinne back and a revamped forward corps.
Calgary has been led in scoring by defensemen Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie. Giordano leads all blueliners in scoring with 19 points in 17 games, while Brodie ranks third with 14 points. Rookie Johnny Gaudreau and sophomore Sean Monahan have been valuable offensive contributors as well, while number one netminder Jonas Hiller has also been a significant factor in the team' early success.
The progress Brodie has shown has been remarkable, but he'll probably top out at 40-45 points. Going off the pace that someone is in line for this early in the year can yield some pretty ridiculous results. Can you imagine if Giordano scored 24 goals and 91 points this year? The point is he is sure to slow down. The Flames captain averaged 0.73 points per game last campaign and that would have given him a total of 60 had he played in all 82 games. Giordano could be a 50-plus point performer this season, but again I wouldn't blame fantasy owners for selling high on him. There will also be a point where Gaudreau hits a wall, especially since he's accustomed to a lighter college hockey schedule.
The Flames will face plenty of competition in a deep Western Conference. San Jose and Los Angeles are divisional foes that sit just behind Calgary in the standings, so a slip out of the playoff picture is very possible even if Hiller continues his superb play.
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets started the year with a 2-5-0 record before turning things around. Winnipeg has won six of their last nine contests to jump into the last Wild Card spot in the Western Conference. They've done it by improving their defensive play, but offensively the team still leaves a lot to be desired. Winnipeg ranks 29th in the league with 1.75 goals for per game.
Bryan Little leads the team with 11 points in 16 games, while Andrew Ladd and Blake Wheeler have 10 apiece. Evander Kane has been injured, but he and Mark Scheifele need to get going offensively.
Ondrej Pavelec has been impressive in his past six outings, but his previous nine games ranged from good to horrible. Despite being a starting goalie, Pavelec was avoided in most drafts going into the year because of his .901 save percentage and 3.01 goals-against average last season. He has posted much better numbers this season, but it's hard to believe he's transformed himself into a top-10 talent and he he remains a serious question mark for the Jets moving forward.
Winnipeg entered the season with the dubious expectation of finishing last in the Central Division, but Minnesota and Dallas have been slow out of the gate and an awful start for Colorado has given them some hope. The talent on those squads could drop the Jets down the standings if they can bounce back and San Jose is currently on the outside of the playoff picture as well. Winnipeg's offense should get better, but I still have serious doubts when it comes to Pavelec and he will be the key to the team's success or failure.
