The DNP Parade
The previous two 'Numbers Game' columns examined team-by-team matchups, but this week shifts focus toward players who might benefit from the absence of a teammate. Any fantasy owners still fighting their way toward a championship should basically have Rotoworld's injury report as their home page, but just in case here's the link. In addition to the many injured players listed, there are plenty of players at risk of DNP-CDs down the stretch -- the Wizards, for instance, have decided to rest John Wall for Wednesday's game vs. the 76ers.
I.
This won't be a comprehensive list of DNP risks, by any means, but we'll go in-depth enough to decide which players will and won't gain significantly in a certain teammate's absence. Let's begin with John Wall, who ranks second in assists per game and total assists (behind Chris Paul). Wall hasn't missed any games this season so there's no history to refer to for comparison, but Ramon Sessions is the clear-cut winner in his absence, especially with Garrett Temple (hamstring) still on the sidelines.
Here are some key statistical splits for Sessions since joining the Wizards:
On a per-36-minute basis with John Wall off the court, Sessions is averaging 14.6 points on 42.9 percent shooting, 0.7 triples, 4.6 rebounds, 6.0 assists and 1.6 steals.
The 76ers' defense has been surprisingly stout since the All-Star break, but over their past 10 games they're yielding 20.5 points to opposing point guards, the third-highest amount of any team (behind only the Bulls and Blazers). Sessions isn't a must-start option by any means, especially with Wall likely to return on Friday, but he's definitely worth a look for streaming-position value or in daily leagues.
Owners in the deepest leagues might also consider Will Bynum for a temporary dose of low-end value. He should serve as Sessions' primary backup but there's huge risk here, as he's yet to score in eight minutes of action since joining the Wizards on a 10-day contract. He has limited 3-point range and rarely steals the ball, making him little more than a desperation play.
In other Wizards' DNP news, Paul Pierce (rest, various nagging injuries) has practiced for two straight days and could return to action on Wednesday. Otto Porter Jr. has been solid over the past three games with averages of 13.0 points, 1.3 triples, 7.0 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 2.3 steals and 0.3 blocks in 32 minutes per game. That's good enough for standard-league value but not nearly enough to keep him around once Pierce returns and Porter's minutes drop back into the 15-25 minute range.
Nene (shoulder) is also questionable to play vs. the 76ers. If he can't suit up Drew Gooden should once again be a sneaky value in deeper leagues -- he has five-game averages of 10.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 0.6 steals, while knocking down an impressive 2.0 three-pointers on 62.5 percent shooting beyond the arc. That's not sustainable but there's enough upside here to gamble on him when Nene sits.
II.
Let's move from the Wizards to the Spurs, where Tony Parker is questionable to play on Wednesday after leaving Tuesday's game with Achilles tightness. The Spurs are in a tight race with the Clippers for playoff positioning, which may be why Tim Duncan and co. haven't suffered any DNP-CDs lately, but it's hard to imagine Parker playing at less than 100 percent health. Assuming he does sit out, Cory Joseph is favored to start at PG with Patty Mills absorbing more minutes in an expanded bench role.
CoJo started the second half of Tuesday's game but finished with only 15 minutes -- this game-flow from PopcornMachine.net shows that he played only 9:20 in the second half, compared to 17:30 for Mills (who played the entire fourth quarter).
Gregg Popovich is likely to split minutes evenly between his two reserve PGs if Parker sits out, as he sounds inclined to get them both as much court-time as possible prior to the playoffs. Here are some telling quotes that Pop gave after Tuesday's easy win vs. OKC.
On Patty Mills: "You’ve got to keep giving him shots to get out there. You can’t let him just sit on the pine."
On Cory Joseph: “He’s earned the spot. If I don’t play him it's like, 'What do I gotta do around here?’ You’ve got to reward a guy and let him get minutes."
Mills has been in a horrible shooting slump and can safely be avoided outside of the deepest leagues, but CoJo has enough mojo to at least get owners' attention. He's started 16 games in Parker's stead this season, during which he's averaged a healthy 13.2 points on 56.2% shooting, 4.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 0.6 steals and 0.4 blocks in 34.6 minutes per game. That FG% is likely unsustainable and he was starting prior to Mills' return from his shoulder injury, however, and the prospect of a pure minute-share at PG reduces Joseph to 'gamble' status.
III.
The Hornets may get Cody Zeller back from his shoulder injury soon, but Al Jefferson (knee) has already been ruled out for Wednesday's game and his return date is up in the air -- all we know is that he "intends to play again this season." That's not very encouraging, especially since coach Steve Clifford said Big Al would need weeks of rest to experience any lasting relief.
The obvious winner here is Bismack Biyombo. We've discussed his rapid emergence as a fantasy force in previous columns, so I'll limit myself to presenting his stats in the past two games without Jefferson: 10.5 points on combined 7-of-10 shooting, 10.5 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.0 steals and 3.5 blocks.
It's worth noting that the Hornets, who have a 33-44 record overall, have gone 8-4 with Al Jefferson out of the lineup. For your consideration, here is a comparison of net ratings for Big Al and Biyombo:
Al Jefferson is also taking 15.5 shots per game this season, posting a healthy 26.7% usage rating, so his absence leaves an offensive void which Biyombo can't fill. That means more shots for Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson in particular -- Walker is already a must-start player, and the increased offensive workload makes Henderson, who dropped 29 points on Tuesday, a much safer option in standard-depth leagues and daily formats.
IV.
The Warriors and Hawks have clinched their respective Conferences and Golden State is a lock for home-court advantage throughout the playoffs, so both teams have some incentive to rest key players in their remaining handful of games. The best argument against DNP-CDs would be the danger of tampering with a team's rotations and chemistry just prior to the playoffs, but fantasy owners will need to stay on their toes over the final week of the regular season.
The Hawks, generally speaking, are at greater risk of DNP-CDs over their final five games. Wednesday's contest vs. the Nets wraps up a back-to-back set, and they have another one looming on Sunday and Monday (Apr. 12/13). It's hard to imagine Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, DeMarre Carroll and Al Horford all playing in both of those Sunday/Monday games, not to mention Paul Millsap (shoulder), so owners should prepare for a likely missed game.
Dennis Schroder is the most appealing of Atlanta's fill-in starters -- per 36 minutes he's averaging a solid 17.8 points, 1.2 threes, 3.8 rebounds, 7.7 assists and 1.2 steals (though he's also shooting 42.0% from the field with 3.5 turnovers). Kent Bazemore and Mike Muscala are also solid fill-in options, and Mike Scott is worth a look in a pinch, but I'll talk more about them later in the column.
As for the Warriors, coach Steve Kerr has actually been pretty stingy with DNP-CDs this season -- he's threatened to rest players more often than he's actually done it. Stephen Curry has one true DNP-CD this season, on Mar. 13, and guys like Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Andrew Bogut and Andre Iguodala also have 1-2 coach's decisions on their record. Golden State has zero back-to-back sets remaining, which helps their cause, but it would still be surprising if Kerr doesn't bench some guys this week -- Bogut is a prime suspect but everyone I just mentioned is at risk.
If key players are rested, here are some descending lists of which players should gain the most in their absence (from most to least):
Steph Curry = Shaun Livingston, Leandro Barbosa, Justin Holiday
Klay Thompson = Justin Holiday, Leandro Barbosa, Shaun Livingston, Brandon Rush
Harrison Barnes = Andre Iguodala, Brandon Rush, Shaun Livingston
Draymond Green = David Lee, Marreese Speights, James Michael McAdoo
Andrew Bogut = Festus Ezeli, Marreese Speights, David Lee
V.
DeMarcus Cousins (foot) and Rudy Gay (concussion, headache) have both been ruled out for Wednesday's tough matchup vs. the Jazz. This leaves a ridiculous hole in the Kings' offense so it will be an all-hands-on-deck situation, as is clear from the following offensive data from NBA.com/stats:
Gay and Cousins are averaging a combined 45.2 points per game this season, which accounts for 44.7% of the Kings' total points per game (101.1). Their combined usage rate of 60.7% is even more astounding.
Who will step up? Omri Casspi is coming off a career-high 31-point game and he fits well in George Karl's offense, so he's a prime candidate to score 20+ points until the big guns return to action. Derrick Williams has been criticized by Karl recently but he bounced back on Tuesday with 18 points on 8-of-12 shooting, eight rebounds and one block, and he too should play a much bigger role vs. Utah.
Ray McCallum has been flirting with standard-league value over the past 10 games, averaging 10.6 points (43.2% FGs, 57.1% FTs), 0.8 threes, 4.2 rebounds, 4.0 assists and 1.1 steals. He'll need to be more aggressive, which is good and bad -- an increase in points, 3-pointers and assists should be at least partially offset by greater weighting for his lousy percentages. In points-leagues and daily-leagues, at least, McCallum is a smart bet tonight. Ben McLemore's already-steady value also gets a nice boost tonight, especially with Nik Stauskas also on the sidelines with back spasms. Keep McLemore locked and loaded in all formats.
Deep-league owners should also keep an eye on Carl Landry. After Cousins, Gay and Darren Collison (core-muscle surgery), Landry has the team's highest usage rate at 18.1%. He doesn't do much beyond score and rebound, but that should be enough for short-term value with so many scorers out of commission.
VI.
Wednesday's news cycle included the awful story of Chris Copeland and his wife being stabbed at a nightclub in New York, which resulted in their hospitalization with non-critical injuries. Copeland also reportedly broke his elbow and will require surgery, which will likely end his season. Copeland has been a solid team player despite falling out of the Pacers' rotation earlier this season, and we wish he and his wife a speedy recovery.
The same incident led to the arrest of Hawks' veterans Thabo Sefolosha and Pero Antic, who obstructed a crime scene and reportedly got physical with police officers in the wake of the attack. Presumably both guys will be out Wednesday pending further punishment from the Hawks and/or the league. Antic's absence, depending how long it is, may make it harder for Atlanta to rest Al Horford -- with Paul Millsap (shoulder) also out indefinitely, they'd have to deploy a makeshift frontcourt of Mike Muscala, Elton Brand and Mike Scott. If that does come to pass fantasy owners should give long thought to deploying Scott as well as Muscala, who had 16 points, seven rebounds, four steals and a block as a fill-in PF on Tuesday.
Thabo Sefolosha's probable absence on Wednesday shouldn't have a huge impact. He logged 20 minutes on Tuesday and that playing time will be dispersed amongst Kent Bazemore, DeMarre Carroll, Kyle Korver and Shelvin Mack. Bazemore is the biggest beneficiary but we saw what he could do with Sefolosha out for 6+ weeks with a calf injury earlier this season, and it wasn't inspiring. He'll be a shaky option unless Korver and/or Carroll are also given a precautionary day of rest in the back-to-back set.
Kent Bazemore in nine starts this season: 10.6 points on 40.7% shooting, 1.2 threes, 4.7 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.8 blocks.
Mike Muscala in four starts this season: 10.5 points on 52.9% shooting, 0.5 threes, 8.3 rebounds, 1.0 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks.
That’s all I have time for today, but stay tuned to RW’s injury report and player news page and you won’t miss a beat, even at this chaotic juncture of the season. As usual, you can also send me specific questions or comments on Twitter @Knaus_RW. Good luck.
