DFS Soccer Week 6
We’ve had quite the storylines over the past two days with four different Premier League squads featuring in the Champions League. The storylines were that English teams were once again struggling in Europe. Many still consider the Premier League to be the strongest soccer league in the world but over the past several seasons there has been a ton of evidence to suggest otherwise. One such piece of evidence is how poorly the English teams have performed in the Champions League compared to other big leagues. Week 1 of UCL this year was no different. Manchester United, Arsenal, and Manchester City all lost, while Chelsea were the only ones to earn a win. In comparison, Spanish teams dominated, earning three wins, a draw, and a loss while earning an expected goals ratio of 11.3 to 2.3 (actual goals were 12-4). Despite the obvious struggles, the Premier League is still, in my opinion, the most fun league to watch. There are never easy games, and every week you’ll have some great matchups that are bound to produce unpredictable results. Enough about what we learned this week, let’s look at this week’s Daily Fantasy Soccer slate, which is as unpredictable as ever.
We have:
Swansea – Everton
Aston Villa – West Brom
Stoke City – Leicester City
Bournemouth – Sunderland
Newcastle – Watford
Man City – West Ham
Both DraftKings and MondoGoal are having their biggest slates as just the Saturday games and that’s wise with the NFL running on Sundays now. Here are the goalkeeper charts for this week:
*Reminder: Names above the red line represent players who are priced favorably and should be used. The further a player is above the red line, the better value he is. The charts are based off of sports book odds for clean sheets for goalkeepers and goals for strikers.
DraftKings
DraftKings has done an extremely good job of pricing their goalkeepers this week. There is virtually no “great value” play and all players are very close to the mean value. The best choice here is Joe Hart, although very expensive, as he provides the best chance at a clean sheet. Manchester City will be tired from having to play Juventus in midweek, so there is a chance they finally concede in the Premier League, but there just isn’t a better cash game play than Hart.
MondoGoal
MondoGoal hasn’t priced their goalkeepers as well and there is a lot of value to be exploited here. Hart is again an option, but Boruc, Guzan, and Krul all present decent value on the site. The ones to be avoided at all costs are Adrian and Pantilimon.
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Scorers
DraftKings
Things are a little more interesting here and this is one of the coolest scoring charts we’ve seen this season. There are only four values here, and three of them are huge. Sergio Aguero is by far the best option if he plays, and if he doesn’t, you can pivot to Wilfried Bony. The sports book loves Callum Wilson, while Rudy Gestede makes for a good GPP option. On the bottom of the chart, there are eight players with approximately the same chance to score, all around 30%. Statistics tell us at on average, 2 or 3 of those will score this weekend, but choosing which ones score is no easy task. In this scenario, I prefer Bafetimbi Gomis and Jamie Vardy due to them playing in high-scoring attacks, but each striker has a decent chance at a goal here and it’s hard to separate them. I’d stick to Aguero and Wilson in most lineups.
MondoGoal
The striker pricing on MondoGoal is similar to that on DraftKings and the values are the same, with Mame Diouf added to the mix. Gomis here is much pricier and really makes for a poor option, as he’s close to Aguero’s price while being half as likely to score. Despite that, he still has a decent chance to score and stacking Gomis, Wilson, and Aguero might not be the worst decision in a GPP. In cash games though, Aguero and Wilson will get my preference.
That’s it for me this week. Good luck and let me know on Twitter if you have any questions!
