My Definitive NFL Week 2 Spread Picks
Welcome back to my weekly column where I pick my top five most confident plays (SuperContest style) for the upcoming NFL slate, including my mortal lock pick of the week.
Not going to try and defend myself. Last week was an absolute train-wreck. I went 1-4 last week against the spread, and fell to 0-1 with my mortal locks. Week 1 has always been the most challenging week for me to handicap because there’s so much unknown. Every team gets so much smoke blown up their you-know-whats to the point where you’re not even sure who’s good or bad anymore. But after Week 1, the picture isn’t as fuzzy, and I feel a lot more confident in my Week 2 picks than my Week 1. I had the Jets -1 last night, but won’t be including that pick in this week’s column. Let’s go.
Season Record: 1-4
Mortal Locks: 0-1
Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-3)
In case you missed my Chargers-Jaguars opponent breakdown, I am not a fan of the San Diego Chargers sans Keenan Allen. I dropped some knowledge in my write-up, but in summary, Phillip Rivers isn’t nearly as effective without Allen. They jumped out to an early lead over Kansas City last week, but simply fell apart offensively once he got injured. It’s not the same team as it was at the beginning of Week 1.
I typically don’t buy into public narratives, but I truly believe the Jaguars are pissed off about last week’s game against Green Bay. They had a chance to win the game on the last drive, but ultimately failed. I personally think the Jaguars outplayed the Pack, but didn’t end up capitalizing on key opportunities like Green Bay did. Traveling west, I don’t think the Chargers will be able to create an intimidating home-field advantage, so that aspect favors Jacksonville. But bottomline, the Chargers stink without Keenan Allen, and looked lost at times without him. Jaguars look legit, so I”m going to take the points with Jacksonville +3, and make it my mortal lock for Week 2.
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (-2.5)
If you recall, the Chiefs trounced the Texans in last year’s Wild Card game to the tune of 30-0. In front of their own fans in Houston, it was truly embarrassing.
But if you’ll also recall, the Texans offense was completely decimated at that point last year. Though that game wasn’t very long ago, a lot has changed for the Texans since. The biggest difference is an upgrade at quarterback in Brock Osweiler after Brian Hoyer had five turnovers in the playoff loss. Houston also added running back Lamar Miller and drafted receiver Will Fuller in the first round to add more weapons to an offense featuring DeAndre Hopkins.
I’m going to take the Texans at home in this game. Grab this number before it jumps to -3. But for now, Houston -2.5.
Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions (-6)
I refuse to believe that the Titans offense is actually as abysmal as it was last week against Minnesota. And I refuse to believe that the Colts, who the Lions beat last week, are any good. The creation of this line smells like a good ol’ fashion case of recency bias fueling the number. The public will see Tennesssee, a franchise that hasn’t been good since Steve McNair was at the helm, facing a Lions team that put up a lot of points and won on the road against Indianapolis last week. I know the Colts have Andrew Luck, but the defense is an absolute sieve. Matthew Stafford, don’t get me wrong, has looked great since offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter took over mid-season last year. But the Titans defense is much better than Indy’s, and I like for them to keep it close to the point where they can cover the six-point spread on the road. I actually wouldn’t be completely surprised to see the Titans win outright. They want to run the ball, and I think they can against a Lions defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league. My pick: Tennessee +6
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
I think public perception plays into this line as well. The Steelers just steamrolled the Washington football team on Monday night, so the image of Antonio Brown running rampant all over Washington’s secondary will be fresh in everyone’s mind.
Bengals-Steelers is arguably the best rivalry in the NFL at this point, with Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis facing off against Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin for what feels like the 100th time. Lewis has been employed by the Bengals since 2003, while Tomlin has been with the Steelers since 2007 so both coaches are very familiar with each other. I think this game will come down to the last possession, as is the case with a lot of rivalry games, so I’ll take the points with Cincinnati +3.5.
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (-13.5)
I love the Panthers in this one. Carolina has the benefit of three extra days of preparation for this game, since they played last Thursday, against a San Francisco team that will be traveling east on a short week. Give me Riverboat Ron Rivera over Chip Kelly any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Carolina -13.5.
Locks:
Jacksonville +3
Texans -2.5
Tennessee +6
Bengals +3.5
Panthers -13.5
Mortal:
Jacksonville +3
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