Core Values: Can Phil Kessel lead Maple Leafs' resurgence?
In the salary cap era, where NHL teams have to be efficient with their money, it's important for each club to have a core group of players who set the foundation on which to build the rest of the team. This group often includes the players who consume the bulk of a team's cap space, while also providing the greatest on-ice impact.
With that in mind, Eye on Hockey introduces our summer series: "Core Values." We'll take the rest of summer to evaluate the group of five to seven players who make up the core of each team. Using criteria like point production, average age, how the players were acquired, total cost and cap hit, we'll detail which teams have the strongest cores and which need work. On top of that, we'll also gaze into the future to look at the players who could one day be part of this crucial group for each team.
What is one to make of the Toronto Maple Leafs? It seems every year, there’s a different answer. Last season, riding a wave of guarded optimism after ending a seven-year playoff drought the year before, the Maple Leafs appeared to be building towards something. A strong start to the season behind some sensational goaltending kept it going, but this was a team that was always teetering on the brink.
When the Maple Leafs collapsed late in the season, it seemed almost inevitable. Getting routinely out-shot, night in and night out, Toronto was playing a dangerous game.
The on-ice personnel has shifted some this offseason with multiple minor changes through free agency and trades. The Maple Leafs also made changes to the coaching staff and front office, but kept head coach Randy Carlyle and general manager Dave Nonis.
Was there enough change to expect different results from a season? That’s tough to say. There’s still plenty of debate about which was more to blame for atrocious possession figures, the players or the system. After the offseason, the bottom of the lineup looks a bit better, while the top is largely unchanged.
The Maple Leafs already have some solid personnel at their disposal including one of the league’s more prolific goal scorers in Phil Kessel and budding No. 1 in Jonathan Bernier.
Improving possession is going to be the key to better results for the Maple Leafs. How they go about doing that is going to depend on some philosophical changes from the coaches and improvement from a number of players in the lineup. It’s easier said than done.
The top of the lineup has enough weaponry to get some results, but the depth will have to shine as the Maple Leafs look to shake off last year’s collapse.
Core Values: Toronto Maple Leafs
Players (Age, term remaining on contract): RW Phil Kessel (26, 8 years), D Dion Phaneuf (29, 7 years), LW James van Riemsdyk (25, 4 years), G Jonathan Bernier (26, 1 year), LW Joffrey Lupul (30, 4 years), C Nazem Kadri (23, 1 year), D Jake Gardiner (24, 5 years)
Total cap hit for 2014-15: $34,350,000 (49.7% of salary cap consumed by seven players)
Average age: 26.1
Total point production in 2013-14: 127 goals, 170 assists, 297 points (51.2% of team’s total production)
About the core
Phil Kessel: Kessel’s existence in Toronto has been a strange one. He has had to live up to the trade that cost Toronto two first-round picks and will continually be at the center of debate when it comes to this team. That said, the Maple Leafs have gotten such incredible output from Kessel for the duration of his time there. Since joining the Leafs in 2009-10, Kessel is the fifth leading goal scorer in the NHL over that span with 156 tallies. He is among the elite players when it comes to scoring goals and that’s hard to find. As a result, the Leafs are going to be paying him big time. Kessel will enter the first year of his eight-year, $64 million extension this year. Kessel has been at or near a point-per-game average over the last three seasons, so he’s worth the high price. Excluding the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign, Kessel has scored at least 30 goals in each of the last five full years and matched his career high of 37 in 2013-14. He’s still only 26 years old and has some really good years ahead of him. As controversial as his arrival was, it can be argued that Kessel has been better every year since he showed up. He’ll need to be again this year to help the Leafs climb out of the hole. How he was acquired: Traded from the Boston Bruins for two first-round picks and a second-round pick on Sept. 18, 2009
Dion Phaneuf will face increased pressure playing under his new contract. (USATSI)
Dion Phaneuf: Another controversial figure in Leafsland, Phaneuf is the club’s captain and top defenseman. He is also starting the first year of a new contract this season and comes with a cap hit of $7 million per year for the next seven. He is given the toughest defensive assignments and has faced among the most difficult competition of any defenseman in the NHL. Phaneuf had 31 points last season and averaged a team-high 23:34 of ice time. The defense overall wasn’t great or Toronto at season and while Phaneuf certainly struggled at times amid a late-year swoon, it’s hard to view him as the problem. There will always be pressure mounted on Phaneuf, perhaps more than ever with his new contract. Since joining the Leafs, Phaneuf has 143 points in 302 games. An uptick in production next season may help offset some of the shortcomings defensively, especially if it comes against top competition again. How he was acquired: Traded from the Calgary Flames with Fredrik Sjostrom and Keith Aulie for Matt Stajan, Nicklas Hagman, Jamal Mayers and Ian White on January 31, 2010
James van Riemsdyk: Having a pair of high scoring wings on your top line helps a lot and van Riemsdyk has provided a great secondary threat playing alongside Kessel. He had a career year in 2013-14 with his first 30-goal season and 61 points. Van Riemsdyk’s points-per-game average has gone up every year of his career and at 24, it looks like the former No. 2 pick has truly found his stride as a pro. Though the Leafs lack a true No. 1 center, JVR and Kessel have managed well with either Nazem Kadri or Tyler Bozak, which shows that they’re more than capable of carrying this team offensively. With 93 points in 128 games in Toronto, van Riemsdyk has quickly made a huge impact on his team and should continue doing so for the duration of his contract which looks awfully good at a $4.25 million cap hit for a top scoring winger. How he was acquired: Traded from the Philadelphia Flyers for Luke Schenn on June 23, 2012
Jonathan Bernier: When you have a team that gives up as many shots as the Maple Leafs did last season, you have to have good goaltending. The Leafs got it for a lot of the year from Bernier, who was in his first campaign as a primary starter. Prior to last season, Bernier had never made more than 25 appearances in a year. He got into 55 games last season, posted a 26-19-7 record, .922 save percentage and 2.70 goals-against average. He saw 1,788 shots, so he was seeing nearly 30 shots per 60 minutes, those are just the ones on net. Additionally, with Bernier between the pipes, the Maple Leafs gave up 2,734 shot attempts against at even strength, or about 45.5 per 60 minutes. Welcome to Toronto, Jonathan. His even-strength save percentage also shows how valuable he was to this team as he had a .933 mark at evens. The Leafs have to find a way to lighten the load here. He played outstanding hockey last year, but Bernier can’t face this kind of onslaught regularly. The franchise may have pulled the plug too early on James Reimer, but Bernier has earned the net with his play and should probably keep it. Up next will be pinning down an extension soon. How he was acquired: Traded from the Los Angeles Kings for Ben Scrivens, Matt Frattin and a second-round pick on June 23, 2013
Joffrey Lupul: This is the part where the core starts getting a little iffy to pick. Lupul has been pretty solid when healthy, but he barely has been in Toronto. A player can’t really control his health too much and with four years remaining on his contract, Lupul will remain an integral piece for the Leafs if he can stay in the lineup. Encouragingly for Toronto fans, Lupul has outpaced his career points-per-game average with the Maple Leafs at a solid 0.82. That comes off of 147 points in 179 games. Over the last three seasons in which he’s been a member of the Maple Leafs full-time, he’s missed 61 games. Lupul will turn 31 just before the season and is Toronto’s second highest paid forward. He can be an offensive leader again if he can stay out of the trainer’s room, which again, may not be in his control. A healthy Lupul could go a long way for this team, though. How he was acquired: Traded from the Anaheim Ducks with Jake Gardiner and a fourth-round draft pick for Francois Beauchemin
Nazem Kadri: I went back and forth between Kadri and Tyler Bozak for this slot due to the contract situation, but I decided to go with youth and upside here even though Kadri has just one year left on his contract. Additionally, Kadri’s been the better producer of the two despite often playing mostly on the second line and away from the Maple Leafs’ star wings. A full-time NHLer for the first time in 2012-13, Kadri has 94 points over his last 126 games with the club. That’s quite substantial. This year, perhaps even a little more was expected after he was a near point-per-game player in 2012-13, but notching his first 20-goal, 50-point season is still pretty good. There are always rumors out there about Kadri and his relationship with head coach Randy Carlyle, which has sparked trade rumors, but he is unlikely to be moved. Kadri is an effective, skilled center who can help the club start beating their possession woes. How he’s utilized this year will be especially interesting to watch. Also of note, Kadri is the only homegrown drafted player tabbed for this core. Maybe that’s part of the problem, too. How he was acquired: 2009 NHL Entry Draft, first round, seventh overall
Jake Gardiner: Gardiner’s status with the team never seemed quite secure last year and really didn’t as trade rumors persisted prior to his signing a five-year extension this summer. That should put them to bed. He only has 167 games of NHL service under his belt, but Gardiner looks like a real gem for the future of the Maple Leafs’ somewhat shaky blue line. His ability to generate offense should improve based on his mobility and puck skills. There’s certainly plenty of risk in Gardiner’s game, but he plays a style that is becoming increasingly valuable in the NHL. The Leafs actually have a fair amount of speed in their lineup. Having a distributing defenseman who can rush up the ice himself is great in this more transition/rush-centric league. Having already played plenty of top-four minutes by age 24 bodes well for Gardiner’s future. Now that the Maple Leafs have made a long-term commitment to Gardiner, that could help boost his confidence and focus. He already has two seasons of 30 or more points under his belt and there’s no reason he can’t be a regular 40-point scorer (or so) over these next few years as his game matures. How he was acquired: Traded from the Anaheim Ducks with Joffrey Lupul and a fourth-round pick for Francois Beauchemin
Who’s next in line
Morgan Rielly's progression could be exciting to watch for Leafs fans. (USATSI)
This is an interesting group for a number of reasons. This space is often reserved for the younger players in the organization, but a pair of seasoned veterans also belong in this mix.
Sticking with the youth theme, Morgan Rielly has a chance to be a special player. He showed a lot of flashes as a 19-year-old rookie last year with 27 points in 73 games. He has some real skill to his game and great distribution skills, though he still needs to grow as a defender. As he continues getting a feel for the NHL game, he can get more involved offensively and give the forwards some support from the backend.
Among the “older” players in this group, Tyler Bozak was edged out for a core spot. His contract and role suggest that the team has him among their core players internally. Bozak often bears a lot of criticism, but he had 49 points in 58 games last year and has been a serviceable pivot for Kessel and van Riemsdyk, which is where he sees a lot of time. At 28 and with four years remaining on his expensive contract, Bozak could afford to show some progression this year if he remains the top-line option.
Cody Franson is another veteran among the secondary group here. A solid two-way defender playing on a one-year contract this season, Franson has good size and is mobile enough. He’s also coming off a career-best 33 points. Defensively, he had as up and down a season as most of his blue line mates last year, but he can help. He’ll be a UFA at the end of the season, so Franson’s remaining time in Toronto could be brief.
In goalie years, James Reimer is still decently young. He had some real rough patches last year for sure, but if he’s Toronto’s No. 2, that’s not a bad guy to have. At 26-year-old, Reimer is on a new two-year deal and will compete for reps with Bernier. He has starter experience and could be solid in relief.
Below the NHL level, the Maple Leafs have to have high hopes for most recent pick, William Nylander. The talented Swede might have a shot at cracking the Leafs lineup immediately, or he could possibly be sent to the AHL. Either way, if Toronto can start his North American development, they’ll be happy. Nylander had an up-and-down draft year, but there’s a lot of skill in his game and his potential is immense.
Overview
The core is expensive for this team, but there’s a lot of money worth spending in it. The issue is that the Leafs are expensive outside of the core as well. Toronto had to become too reliant on free agency and trades to make their current roster after years of lost draft picks through trades or misses in the first-round.
As a result, the payroll is kind of bloated. The chief culprit of the bloat is David Clarkson. He became a symbol of the Leafs struggles last year and still has six years remaining on his contract. Without a massive -- and I mean massive bounce-back -- that deal could remain an anchor for the Leafs. They can’t expect him to earn the $5.25 million against the cap, but need him to be vastly better than last year.
Tyler Bozak is another player with a fairly expensive contract relative to his production. He showed some signs of progression last year and could be an important player again in the coming season.
The Maple Leafs also went to work on bringing in really cheap veterans. Whether or not it pays off will remain to be seen, but if they provide some help in lower-lineup positions, there’s plenty of upside in what the Leafs did this summer.
Perhaps the biggest impact addition is Stephane Robidas, who has been a brilliant shutdown defender over the years. He’s coming off two leg fractures in one year, though. The risk in his contract is notable and at $3 million against the cap the Leafs need him to be an above average top-four defenseman at age 37.
The team also spent a few dollars collectively on Daniel Winnik, David Booth, Mike Santorelli, Petri Kontiola and brought back Leo Komarov on a multi-year deal. Matt Frattin and Roman Polak were also added via trades.
The defense may benefit from the experience of Robidas and Polak, but they are going to have to improve wildly as a unit to help keep the organization moving in a positive direction. A year of progression from Morgan Rielly and Jake Gardiner could help to that end.
Toronto is good net and they have some offensive power in the top six. So where does that leave them for the rest of the year? It’s kind of tough to say right now. Carlyle still being around, even with new assistants, makes you wonder how different the team will be in terms of systems and approach to the game.
In a summer where there could have been some sweeping changes, new president of hockey operations Brendan Shanahan appeared to take some half measures with the minor tweaks. They could pay off, but this is a team that still has a ways to go to becoming sustainably competitive.
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