Closing Time: Dylan Bundy, plugged in and electric
Red flags are always present when we discuss Dylan Bundy. He’s had a Tommy John surgery and some shoulder problems. He’s also on a Baltimore club that’s struggled to develop young pitchers.
But if you catch Bundy on the right night, it’s so easy to fall in love.
Bundy had his good stuff against the Jays on Wednesday, mowing them down over seven brilliant innings (4 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 8 K). He worked ahead in the count, commanded his expansive repertoire. Bundy hit the strike zone on 69-of-99 pitches. The run he allowed came on three pedestrian singles.
Plugged in and electric. Have some fun with the video.
Bundy was the fourth overall pick in the 2011 draft, big things expected. We’re always looking for upside with the middle and back-end of our staffs, which makes Bundy an obvious mixed-league scratch ticket. Although he was aggressively added over the past 12 hours or so, he’s still unowned in two-thirds of Yahoo leagues.
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Bundy skeptics will point to a likely innings cap, but that’s not something I’ll worry about right now. If he can log anywhere from 100-150 quality innings — and there’s an excellent chance he’ll do just that — I’m thrilled. We can backfill the rest of the work later. Right now, it’s all about identifying plausible upside and making the proper move.
The schedule isn’t easy coming forward — a trip to Boston, a trip to Toronto. That’s life in the AL East. But when Bundy’s on his game, as he showed Wednesday, the matchups aren’t a big deal. He’s going to control a large share of his outcomes.
• J.A. Happ had an interesting start opposite Bundy. He allowed three runs, bitten by a couple of homers. The Adam Jones dinger was a Camden Yards cheapie all the way. Happ lasted seven innings, struck out nine, didn’t walk anyone.
The Regression Police had a field day with Happ this spring, confident he won’t repeat his dazzling 2016 season. That’s the likely way to bet, of course, but “regression” should always start a conversation, not end one. Happ can give back a fair amount of his 2016 success and still provide a profit for us. I’m in his corner.
• Sam Dyson went on the alert list after an Opening Day blown save, and the story blew up Wednesday. Dyson was even worse in his second appearance, allowing five runs in a horrendous 22-pitch effort. Dyson couldn’t find the strike zone — he walked two batters, one of them on four pitches with the bases loaded — and eventually was beaten by Francisco Lindor’s grand slam. Check, please.
Texas manager Jeff Banister gave Dyson a vote of confidence after the game, but this isn’t a poker tournament. Verbal declarations aren’t binding. Matt Bush, who looked good Wednesday (1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 K) is the logical addition, with Jeremy Jeffress the longer shot. Save speculators, do what you need to do.
• The Chris Sale/Jameson Taillon matchup was the juiciest on Wednesday’s card, and it lived up to the hype. Sale and Taillon took full advantage of the Fenway weather (40-degree temps, wind gusting in), trading bagels over seven breezy innings.
Sale had one of those nights where you wonder how he ever loses — just three hits, one walk, seven strikeouts. He commanded all of his pitches, and the Pirates took a bunch of defensive, hopeless swings. Fenway Park will surely show its teeth at times this year, but Sale would have been effective in any park Wednesday. He’s a known commodity, not much to say here.
Taillon wasn’t as sharp as Sale (5 H, 3 BB, 6 K), but he made some excellent pitches when needed. The emerging ace also enjoyed two key breaks — Andrew McCutchen nailed a runner at home, and a Mitch Moreland blast (a sure homer on a most nights) died at the right-field wall. Taillon’s ground-ball tilt also bailed him out, leading to two double plays. Taillon wasn’t cheap at the draft table, but I expect it was money well spent.
The game wasn’t settled until Sandy Leon clocked a walk-off homer in the bottom of the 12th. Leon had three hits on the night, alive and kicking in the No. 9 slot.
Leon is a borderline call in standard one-catcher formats, but he was a $1 target of mine in the two-catcher world. His plus defense is likely to keep him on the field — he’s already comfortable with Sale, that was obvious Wednesday — and any spot in the Boston lineup is a valuable one, even at the bottom.
Obviously Leon’s 2016 season had fluky tints to it (and wasn’t supported by his minor-league resume); it’s unlikely to repeat. But I expect a reasonable average from the switch-hitter, with double-digit homers possible. Another good spot to fade the Regression Police; sometimes the hate goes too far.
• If you prefer your pitching lottery tickets to come from the National League, Brandon Finnegan might be your speed. Finnegan was an interesting arm at times last year (3.98 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), though his K/BB ratio lagged under two. It’s not that his 2016 resume was playable — it’s that it showed potential for something better down the line. Finnegan turns 24 in a week, and he was a first-round pick three years ago.
Finnegan dominated the Phillies on Wednesday (7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K), showing what’s possible when his command is present. Cincinnati isn’t the easiest place for young pitchers to cut their teeth, but I don’t blame anyone who’s buying in. Let’s take a long look when Finnegan and Taillon match up in Pittsburgh next week. The interesting lefty is available in 81 percent of Yahoo leagues.
