Closing Time: Adam Wainwright rebounds, Mallex Smith runs
There are all sorts of things to admire about Adam Wainwright, St. Louis right-hander. Hard worker. Good teammate. Solid hitter. And for many years, a reliable fantasy option — hell, many years, an ace.
Until the opening weeks of 2016, mind you. That’s when it all went poof. But Wainwright appears to be back on the beam, pitching to a high level in June.
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Wainwright didn’t receive a decision in Thursday’s loss to Houston, but it was hardly his fault. He threw seven clean innings at the Astros (4 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 6 K), taking his ERA under 5 in the process. He has a 1.80 ERA in June, with a snappy 21 strikeouts against just five walks.
Most of Wainwright’s batted-ball trends are moving in the right direction this month. His ground-ball rate has spiked significantly over the last three starts, line drives are down, and infield flies are up. His command has been better with most of his pitches, especially his curveball.
Skeptics will point to the zero home runs Wainwright has allowed this month, but to me, that sort of statistic is generally a marriage of luck and good pitching. When a pitcher like Wainwright is hitting his spots, home runs will be less plentiful. Heck, his career HR/FB clip is a mere 7.6 percent — there’s no way I’m going to judge him against a league-average baseline. (And when he hits the decline years of his career, I suppose his personal baseline could be over the league average).
Wainwright won’t get anything easy against the Cubs next week, and the surging Royals will also test him after that — especially in Kansas City. But I’m ready to restore the veteran righty to set-and-forget status. If I were Shuffling starting pitchers at the moment, he’d sneak into the low-teens, something in the $14-15 area.
• We had some overnight fun with the Andy Behrens/Mallex Smith on-again, off-again contract status, but it looks like Smith is finally here to stay as a fantasy factor (Behrens, too, is here to stay). Smith actually stole another base Thursday, as this CT was in production — that makes him a perfect 6-for-6 in June. Smith was trying to steal bases in the earlier months, mind you — he just wasn’t successful all that often (6-for-13). The Braves are also letting him cut his teeth as the leadoff man; that’s where Smith has been in his last four starts.
A .247 average obviously doesn’t move the needle, but if Smith is going to run this often and this successfully (and remember his insane steal totals in the minors), we want in. He’s also hit three homers, though that belies the lack of power he showed in the bush leagues.
Anyway, now is your time. Now is your Mallex Moment. Make the add in 94 percent of Yahoo leagues. (Your 2 pm ET update: Smith has stolen yet another bag. This is not a test, this is the real thing. Please add him. And Behrens, please drop him.)
• The Royals continue to play outstanding ball at home (sweeping the Tribe), and Whit Merrifield is a key to the story. He’s 5-for-13 on the current homestand, with a couple of home runs and five runs scored. You get the prep school name and the peppy game, and he also qualifies at two Yahoo positions (second base, outfield). He’s slotting first or second every night for the Royals.
• If you came for the Willson Contreras party, let me direct you to the Behrens Wing of the blog. He has you covered, right over here. Enjoy your shiny Cub (and maybe an Old Style or two), responsibly. Sounds like Contreras will be a mix of Mike Piazza, Kyle Schwarber and Mike Engleberg. Can’t miss.
