Best Case/Worst Case: QBs

It’s the time of year for mock drafts and projections. Rotoworld has those in spades in our overflowing DRAFT GUIDE. This is not a mock draft or projection hub. It’s a thought exercise, one that isn’t interested in predicting the most likely outcomes. That’s what projections are for. Here we aim to consider what a player’s season might look like if everything breaks right, or if it all goes up in smoke.

Note: 1-32 rankings based on Rotoworld’s quarterback rankings, with slight alterations to take into account recent events, and ensure every team is represented.

1. Peyton Manning

Best Case: Manning can’t match last year’s “Create A Player 99 Overall” numbers, but still eases by 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns. He remains league MVP, and without peer at his position.

Worst Case: The glacier starts to melt. Manning goes from looking like he’s 38 in the pocket to producing like he’s 38 in the pocket, losing even more zip on his passes while taking more than 21 sacks for the first time since 2002. Manning doesn’t fall off his career cliff, but can finally see it over the horizon.

2. Aaron Rodgers

Best Case: Rodgers recovers from his injury-ruined 2013 to reclaim his place atop the league’s quarterback mountain. He wins his second MVP award in four seasons as the Packers ramp their offensive machine back up to its 2011 levels.

Worst Case: Now 30, Rodgers loses some of his escapability, taking hits that lead to missed games for the third time in five years. Fantasy owners are saddled with a top-three quarterback who again isn’t on the field enough to produce like one.

3. Drew Brees

Best Case: Brees posts the fifth 5,000-yard season of his career — four more than anyone else in league history — as his 40-plus touchdowns lead him past Manning and Rodgers in the trio’s now annual quarterback game of thrones.

Worst Case: Coach Sean Payton’s talk about installing a more balanced offense wasn’t lip service, as he dials back Brees’ pass attempts to the 550 range. It results in “just” 4,400 yards and 35ish touchdowns. Fantasy owners regret their pick, but only a little bit.

4. Matthew Stafford

Best Case: Sporting improved fundamentals and a new level of maturity and discipline for a new-and-improved coaching staff, Stafford crashes Manning, Rodgers and Brees’ royal rumble by leading the league in most every meaningful passing category.

Worst Case: Stafford doesn’t bother learning new tricks, instead relying on his usual trick-shot passes. His feet improve enough to get his completion percentage back over 60, but Stafford again has the looks of a gunslinger who doesn’t care much for accuracy or safety. He begins trending from upside project to missed opportunity.

5. Andrew Luck

Best Case: It’s Luck, not Stafford, who hijacks Manning, Rodgers and Brees’ MVP race, joining LeBron James and Sidney Crosby as recent Chosen Ones to lead their teams to the promised land. Luck approaches 5,000 yards while posting a 38:14 TD:INT ratio.

Worst Case: Luck isn’t enough to make up for the Colts’ run game and offensive line deficiencies, while the latter costs him time with injury for the first time in his NFL career. The future remains bright, but Luck gets to take off his shades for a little bit.

6. Cam Newton

Best Case: If 2013 was liftoff, 2014 is overdrive. Newton worries not about his “lack of weapons,” putting the threat in dual-threat. He’s again indestructible despite carrying his team on his back, racking up 3,500 yards passing, 900 yards rushing and 35 total touchdowns. Newton is no longer a hypothesis, but a theory.

Worst Case: Carolina’s talent drain on offense takes its toll on the league’s young Gibraltar. Newton remains a top-10 fantasy quarterback, but his supporting cast makes his output sporadic, and altogether not worth the hassle. Wait till next year.

7. Matt Ryan

Best Case: With Roddy White and Julio Jones healthy, the band is back together and the reunion album goes straight to No. 1, earning an 87 on MetaCritic. Ryan is no longer simply passing for the sake of it. He returns to the top five in touchdowns, not just attempts.

Worst Case: Ryan doesn’t plunge to 2013’s depths, but begins to settle in as a rich man’s Matthew Stafford, racking up numbers that seem rather empty in “real life,” but golden in fantasy. A matchup-based starter you need to pair with someone else.

8. Tony Romo

Best Case: With the Cowboys constantly playing from behind for pass-obsessed OC Scott Linehan, Romo cruises to a new career high in attempts. He turns them into top-three fantasy glory, and the most points of his 10-year career.

Worst Case: Linehan follows through on his pledge to commit to the run, curbing Romo’s week-to-week roto consistency. Romo still has matchup appeal, but isn’t someone you can leave alone at your quarterback position, particularly with his back woes beginning to limit his mobility.

9. Nick Foles

Best Case: It wasn’t all a dream. The lead-footed Foles is the quarterback for Chip Kelly’s offense, and Chip Kelly’s offense piles up yards and touchdowns. Although Foles can’t come close to repeating his absurd 27:2 TD:INT ratio, he’s a top-five fantasy quarterback.

Worst Case: Everything is different. Foles’ would-be interceptions are no longer nullified by drops or penalties, while he looks clumsy piloting an offense that’s supposed to boast a running threat at quarterback. Foles isn’t benched for Mark Sanchez or Matt Barkley, but his stats and standing suffer in equal measure. Kelly renews his search for a franchise signal caller.

10. Tom Brady

Best Case: With his veteran weapons healthy and his younger weapons a year older, Brady shakes the rust of his inconsistent 2013, again looking infallible atop one of the league’s most dynamic offenses. There isn’t a bigger fantasy bargain at quarterback.

Worst Case: The Pats continue to double down on the run, holding Brady to fewer than 4,000 yards for the first time since 2010, and only the second time in the past 10 seasons. When Brady is called upon to throw, he sails even more passes than he did in 2013. Both sides begin to consider a world without Tom Brady at quarterback.

11. Robert Griffin III

Best Case: There’s drama, but it revolves around which team records Griffin is going to break, not his knee or relationship with the coaching staff. New head man Jay Gruden follows through on his pledge to curtail RGIII’s designed runs, but it hardly matters as he has his quarterback dial up over 500 throws. With five rushing touchdowns sprinkled on top of his 30 passing scores, RGIII is a top-five fantasy quarterback.

Worst Case: The absence of Mike Shanahan doesn’t cure Griffin’s knee or accuracy issues. RGIII remains tentative, both as a passer and a scrambler. He faintly improves on his dismal sophomore campaign, but looks nothing like the lightning bolt he was as a rookie. People begin wondering if he ever will again.

12. Jay Cutler

Best Case: Smokin’ Jay finally stays hot for a full season. Throwing to the two tallest buildings in the world in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, Cutler surpasses 4,500 yards for the first time since 2008, and flirts with 40 touchdowns. You can shout it from the mountain: Quarterback whisperer Marc Trestman has unleashed Jay Cutler.

Worst Case: There’s no “new Jay.” It’s the same old Cutler, one who misses six games with various injuries, and commits too many turnovers when he does take the field. The Bears head into the offseason feeling squeamish about the $31.5 million they’ve guaranteed Cutler for 2015-16.

13. Colin Kaepernick

Best Case: Finally going to war with a full complement of pass catchers, Kaepernick becomes 2014’s ultimate post-hype breakout, piling up 4,500 total yards and 35 total touchdowns. Ron Jaworski starts feeling better about his August 2013 proclamation that Kaepernick could be one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time.

Worst Case: Kaep fails to fully animate for the second-consecutive season, teasing his otherworldly upside while too often getting bogged down in everyday-quarterback problems. He’s good enough to win with, but doesn’t steal games the way his talent suggests he could.

14. Russell Wilson

Best Case: Your mom’s favorite quarterback becomes your fantasy team’s most consistent player. The Seahawks still rank in the bottom five in pass attempts, but open their offense up more than expected, sending Wilson past 3,500 yards passing before he’s rested in Week 17. Wilson doesn’t threaten for top-five status, but irons out his peaks and valleys into a nice straight line.

Worst Case: Wilson remains little more than a cog in the Seahawks’ machine. Not that he’s not an important one, but the step forward doesn’t come. Wilson manages games. That means he sometimes loses them in fantasy.

15. Philip Rivers

Best Case: Rivers can’t match last season’s 4,478 yards and 32 touchdowns for a team that goes even more run heavy, but further refines his efficiency, becoming just the eighth quarterback in league history to post a completion percentage above 70. He wins more games in “real life” than fantasy.

Worst Case: The Bolts dial back the pass even more than expected, holding Rivers to fewer than 460 attempts for the first time as a starter. Even with the increased conservatism, Rivers can’t match last year’s turnover rate, tossing 15 picks and losing five fumbles. New Phil becomes one with Old Phil.

16. Ben Roethlisberger

Best Case: Big Ben essentially repeats his 2013, somehow staying healthy while remaining in the top 10 in pass attempts for an offense committed to going fast. Roethlisberger doesn’t wow, but is someone you can stick in your starting lineup on a weekly basis without worrying about it.

Worst Case: It all goes to pot. A 32-year-old Roethlisberger appears in fewer than 13 games for the first time since his suspension-shortened 2010, while his already volatile relationship with OC Todd Haley turns straight up volcanic. In between the chaos, a perennially-battered quarterback shows his age on the playing field. The Steelers go from passively thinking about life without Roethlisberger to actively pursuing it.

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17. Alex Smith

Best Case: Smith does not transcend time and space, but does continue to transcend the idea of what he’s supposed to be: A bridge quarterback. Nothing can make Smith’s arm stronger, but age continues to make his mind stronger. A safe, competent quarterback, Smith leads the Chiefs back to the playoffs, and the brain trust who must decide what to pay him back to the drawing board.

Worst Case: Sans contract extension, Smith pilots a team that’s worse across the board after shedding talent in all phases of the game. His play does not embarrass, but inspires little more than fantasies of what a better quarterback might look like. The Chiefs decide to go in a different direction for 2015.

18. Andy Dalton

Best Case: New OC Hue Jackson’s run-minded system sends Dalton plummeting down the leaderboard, but rising up the leaders board. A more contained Dalton is a more effective Dalton, one finally capable of leading his team to a playoff victory.

Worst Case: Less Dalton doesn’t equal better Dalton. It’s simply not possible for a quarterback with Dalton’s arm strength and decision-making limitations. 2014 goes down as his final season as an unchallenged starter.

19. Johnny Manziel

Best Case: Johnny Football sweeps the land like Stone Cold Steve Austin, handing out stunners and beers. The offseason scuttlebutt about his off-the-field antics proves comical and trite as he mirrors Robert Griffin III’s rookie glory.

Worst Case: The Browns weren’t just sending an offseason message with their Brian Hoyer lovefest. An unfocused and physically unprepared Manziel stumbles through a disastrous camp and preseason, giving Hoyer enough rope for a 5-6 game losing streak. The homeless man who told owner Jimmy Haslam to draft Manziel struggles to come to terms with the error of his ways.

20. Ryan Tannehill

Best Case: Energized by his first fresh coaching voice since high school, Tannehill shakes the Mike Sherman doldrums and breaks out. It doesn’t translate to a huge fantasy campaign for a team committed to running the ball, but Tannehill’s upside is no longer just a hypothesis. He enters 2015 as an obvious breakout candidate.

Worst Case: Tannehill can’t re-direct his one-way flight to Bradford-land. It’s another year of peaks and valleys for a player who should be better. The Dolphins aren’t ready to throw in the towel, but Dynasty owners see little reason not to.

21. Carson Palmer

Best Case: The most bizarre career arc this side of Josh McCown continues, as Palmer follows up his career-best 4,274-yard season with a new high-water mark of 4,400. He still turns the ball over at an unreasonable level, but is more than game enough to pilot Bruce Arians’ vertical attack. Fantasy streamers have to sit Palmer against NFC West opponents, but can trot him out comfortably against anyone else.

Worst Case: Duct tape, glue, smoke, mirrors — none of it works as the Cardinals try to mask Palmer’s rapidly deteriorating skill-set. He’s the weak link on a team otherwise ready to contend in football’s most unforgiving division. Always a bit mercurial, Palmer announces his retirement before the season is even through.

22. Joe Flacco

Best Case: Flacco does not break through, but he does turn back. 2013’s most inefficient passer rebounds to the acceptable QB2 ranks thanks to a healthy Dennis Pitta, a sober offensive approach from OC Gary Kubiak and upgraded veteran chain movers (Steve Smith and Owen Daniels).

Worst Case: Flacco bottoms out, watching his completion percentage sink past its previous career low of 57.6 as his quarterback rating struggles to rise out of the 70s. He’s both the league’s most-expensive and least-exciting statue.

23. Eli Manning

Best Case: One year after the Philip Rivers comeback tour shattered box-office records, Eli Manning … doesn’t do that, but doesn’t embarrass himself, either. New OC Ben McAdoo’s quick-hitting, fast-moving offense rejuvenates Eli to the tune of 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns. There are duds, but Manning moves past them instead of compounding them.

Worst Case: Manning avoids 2013’s depths, but ultimately can’t get the ship righted, surpassing 20 picks for the third time in five years. A sometimes great, sometimes frustrating and always baffling career is firmly in its decline phase.

24. Josh McCown

Best Case: Already a half-finished Disney script, McCown writes the ending, guiding a reloaded Bucs team to a surprise division championship in the loaded NFC South. He’s just a matchup play for fantasy purposes, but still heeds the whispers of his career reviver, Marc Trestman.

Worst Case: Gone from Trestman’s guiding hand, McCown reverts to what he’s always been: A journeyman. With the Bucs off to a Schiano-esque 0-6 start, McCown is benched during the team’s Week 7 bye. McCown’s touching script goes into turnaround.

25. Sam Bradford

Best Case: With all the pretenses dropped — Bradford is not a savior, the Rams do not have the horses for a spread offense, etc. — Bradford finally has a consistent, effective, injury-free year. He does not light up the score-sheet, but keeps the Rams in the race for the league’s toughest division.

Worst Case: New lows across the board. Bradford is limited to eight games by injury, while his YPA dips below his Gabbert-esque rookie year mark of 5.95. There are no more excuses or revival scenarios. Bradford is a bad NFL quarterback, one who got paid $14 million to be so in 2014.

26. Jake Locker

Best Case: Locker finally stays on the field long enough to give observers enough time to form a concrete opinion of his play. It’s pretty good, as he averages more than seven yards per pass attempt, and more than seven yards per rush attempt. The Titans decide he’s worth betting on for 2015, while Dynasty league owners grant him another year on scholarship.

Worst Case: Locker conducts a greatest hits tour of his NFL shortcomings, struggling to stay healthy while making far too many errant throws when he does manage to take the field. After subjecting the world to Charlie Whitehurst, Locker prepares to settle in as an “upside backup” for the second phase of his NFL career.

27. Geno Smith

Best Case: Thanks largely to ironing out his home/road splits and cutting down on the rookie-mistake turnovers, Smith becomes an excellent shopkeeper for the Jets’ ground-and-pound offense. He even occasionally flashes glimpses of a future 4,000-yard passer.

Worst Case: Smith face-plants before October, thrusting the quarterback formerly known as Michael Vick into the Jets’ starting lineup. Vick is a turnover-addled mess, while Smith is a quarterback who will have to prove worthy of No. 2 duties for a new coach in 2015.

28. E.J. Manuel

Best Case: Manuel elevates from hapless rookie to dual-threat game manager. While not exactly looking like a future All Pro, Manuel takes enough advantage of a strong supporting cast to turn himself into a weekly streaming option in re-draft leagues. The doom and gloom surrounding his 2013 draft reach turns to indifference.

Worst Case: More knee issues, more bad reads, more ineffectiveness as a rusher. Manuel quickly and decisively puts himself in the conversation with Blaine Gabbert and Christian Ponder as one of the worst quarterback draft picks of the past four seasons.

29. Teddy Bridgewater

Best Case: And the draftniks shall inherit the earth. Bridgewater makes mincemeat of Matt Cassel in the preseason en route to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. His 3,500 yards and 24 touchdowns don’t light up the leaderboard, but seem like a mere hint of what’s to come down the road.

Worst Case: Bridgewater makes starts, but not until after the Vikings’ Week 10 bye. Even then, the promotion seems forced, as Bridgewater’s short-to-intermediate skill-set simply doesn’t mesh with Norv Turner’s deep game. The jury is very much out heading into 2015.

30. Matt Schaub

Best Case: The Raiders get the jalopy running again. Schaub isn’t objectively “good,” but he’s not abjectly terrible, either. Most of his interceptions fail to go for touchdowns for the other team, while he helps along the development of Denarius Moore, Rod Streater and Andre Holmes with his reasonably steady play.

Worst Case: Matt Schaub is here to talk about lyme disease. Schaub is a horror show away from mentor Gary Kubiak, and is somehow even worse than the quarterback play the Raiders received in 2013. It’s depressing for all involved, most notably GM Reggie McKenzie, who finds himself out of a job thanks in large part to Schaub’s dismal play.

31. Ryan Fitzpatrick

Best Case: The FitzMagic train rolls on. Sure, there are more stops and starts than a suburban Amtrak, but Fitz prevents the Texans from embarrassing themselves on a weekly basis. There are touchdowns, picks and above all else, good times.

Worst Case: A complete mismatch with Bill O’Brien’s run-first offense, Fitzpatrick is benched after throwing three picks on only 22 attempts in Week 7 against the Steelers. He has the indignity of holding a clipboard for Tom Savage, a player who was perhaps the fourth or fifth best quarterback in the ACC last season.

32. Chad Henne

Best Case: Henne is just good enough that the temptation to start Blake Bortles is never too great. He throws four touchdowns against the Cowboys in Week 10.

Worst Case: After three straight games without a score, Henne is benched in October. He spends the final two months of the season trading texts with Kyle Orton and Matt Hasselbeck about what it’s like to be a backup quarterback.