16 things to know about the NCAA Midwest Region, plus who wins

[ Pat Forde's regional breakdowns: South | West | East | Midwest ]

Rating the region: Second-toughest of the four. Contains two of Pomeroy Ratings’ top three teams and seven of the top 30. Two Midwest Region teams won major-conference tournaments: Michigan State and Seton Hall.

Contenders to cut down the nets in Chicago: Michigan State, Virginia, Purdue, Seton Hall.

Pretenders who will be bounced early despite high seeds: Iowa State and Utah are both facing early jeopardy. The Cyclones at least get a stylistically friendly matchup against Iona, which is similarly up-tempo and indifferent to defense, but the Gaels are perfectly capable of winning a shootout. If the Utes thought their ball handlers were under siege in a 20-turnover blowout against Oregon on Saturday night in the Pac-12 final, they better prepare for more of the same from a Fresno State team that ranks among the nation's best in steals.

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Cinderellas: Gonzaga has had its years of falling short when highly seeded. Now the Zags are going to try it from the opposite perspective as a No. 11 seed. The Bulldogs have power in the paint in 6-foot-11 Domantas Sabonis, a matchup problem in Kyle Wiltjer and a backcourt that made some positive strides late in the season in terms of point production and taking care of the ball. Seton Hall is a good team that got a tough draw.

Team that doesn’t belong: Syracuse not only was surprisingly in the field, but not even among the last four in. Not sure how. The Orange hoped Jim Boeheim’s nine-game suspension would be a mitigating factor with the selection committee – but it’s not like Boeheim missed those games with a health issue. He was suspended for a panoply of rules violations within his program. And he was on the bench for Syracuse’s five losses in its final six games. Last time the Orange beat a team that’s in the field: Jan. 28.

Chances of a 1-16 upset: Not likely for Hampton, but not impossible. Virginia has a recent history of opening-round struggles. Last year as a No. 2 seed, the Cavaliers were ahead of Belmont by only two points in the final five minutes. The previous year as a No. 1 seed, Virginia trailed Coastal Carolina at halftime and led by only three inside the final 10 minutes.

Best potential round-of-32 game: Utah-Seton Hall. Two of the best players in the nation would be on the floor in Utah’s Jakob Poeltl and Seton Hall’s Isaiah Whitehead.

Best potential Sweet 16 game: Purdue-Virginia. Huge Boilermakers would present a significant challenge to the Cavaliers inside.

Best potential regional final game: Michigan State-Virginia. Though Tony Bennett might not agree. The last thing the Virginia coach wants to see is Tom Izzo, who has eliminated the Cavaliers each of the last two seasons as the higher seed.

Best coach: Michigan State’s Tom Izzo has won a national title, been to seven Final Fours and pretty much perfected the art of having his team peak at the perfect time.

Underrated coach: Iona’s Tim Cluess has his team in the tourney for the third time in the last five seasons. He’s won at least 20 games in all six years on the job, and captured three Metro Atlantic regular-season titles.

Best player: Denzel Valentine, Michigan State. Not just the best player in the region; for my money he’s the best player in the entire bracket. Uncanny court vision helps him average seven assists a game. Aggressiveness and determination helps him average seven rebounds a game. Shooting and a diversified offensive game help him average 19 points a game.

Best player you haven’t heard of: Fresno State guard Marvelle Harris is yet another senior making the most of his final college go-‘round. Harris has averaged 20.6 points, 4.7 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 2.2 steals in leading the Bulldogs to their first NCAA bid in 15 years.

X-factor: After making a crazy 11 3-pointers against hapless Rutgers on March 2, Michigan State guard Bryn Forbes has cooled off considerably from beyond the arc. In the four games since he has made just 5 of 23 3s (21.7 percent). If Forbes continues to struggle it would add pressure to Valentine to do everything, and make the Spartans more susceptible to an upset.

Welcome March sight: Texas Tech coach Tubby Smith, now taking his record-tying fifth school to the NCAA tournament. The other four: Tulsa, Georgia, Kentucky and Minnesota. (The other coach who has taken five schools to the Big Dance: Lon Kruger.)

Best part of this bracket: A hefty 11 out of 16 teams have nicknames that are human-based. There are two Pirates (Hampton and Seton Hall), a Trojan (Arkansas-Little Rock), a Spartan (Michigan State), a Cavalier (Virginia), a Red Raider (Texas Tech), a Blue Raider (Middle Tennessee), a Boilermaker (Purdue), a Gael (Iona), a Flyer (Dayton) and a poltically incorrect Ute (Utah). They outweigh the three Bulldogs (Butler, Fresno State, Gonzaga), one atmospheric disturbance (Iowa State Cyclones) and one color (Syracuse Orange).

Pat’s pick: Michigan State.