TUMS QuikPak 500
Who Will Win?
Johnson
Jimmie Johnson: Jimmie Johnson is as close to a sure thing at Martinsville Speedway as there is. In 13 career starts at NASCAR's oldest and also shortest Sprint Cup track, Johnson has four wins, nine top 5s and 12 top 10s. There is just something magical about Martinsville that seems to bring out the best in Johnson, particularly during the Chase: In the last four playoff events there, Johnson has three wins and a third-place finish. How can you bet against him? – Jerry Bonkowski
• If Lowe's Motor Speedway is "Jimmie's House," then Martinsville Speedway is Jimmie's "Crosstown Condo." Johnson has four wins in just 13 races at the paperclip-shaped, half-mile track just up the road from LMS. That's an amazing record. Even more impressive is that Johnson has finished out of the top 10 only once during those same 13 races. It would be ludicrous to pick anyone other than Johnson as the race winner. – Bob Margolis
Jeff Gordon: For the second time in less than a month, I am calling for the end of Jeff Gordon's 2008 winless streak. Teammate Jimmie Johnson may be considered the most productive driver at the half-mile track, but it's actually Gordon who leads all active drivers with seven wins at the Virginia short track. Sunday, he wins number eight. – Ricky Craven
Denny Hamlin: It's hard to bet against Jimmie Johnson. But like Jeff Burton and Greg Biffle, I, too, need to take a chance if I'm going to catch up in the standings. That's why I'm going with Denny Hamlin, who loves Martinsville, won there in the spring and has nothing left to race for except wins. – Jay Hart
Three thoughts, by Ricky Craven
Craven
1. A GOOD START: QUALIFYING will be critical at the last short track race in the Chase. Success at short tracks is always associated with establishing and preserving track position. It's why I believe Friday's qualifying is the key to the weekend. A strong starting position also guarantees a preferred pit stall, helping to avoid the pitfalls of a very difficult and crowded pit road.
2. CHASING JIMMIE: Three Chase drivers who need to overcome historically poor records at Martinsville are Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards and Clint Bowyer. None of the three have ever had a top-five finish there, nor can any of them afford a bad finish with only five races remaining. The numbers are particularly bad for Biffle and Edwards, who have only one top 10 each.
3. KEEP AN EYE ON DENNY: Denny Hamlin should be considered a favorite considering he won at Martinsville in the spring. But it has been a difficult stretch for Hamlin in the Chase, finishing outside the top 10 in the last four events. Hamlin also experienced a terrible wreck at Talladega, a result of a blown right-front tire. The subpar performance in the last month takes its toll on a driver mentally, while the big hit Hamlin experienced takes its toll physically. Both affect confidence, which is why racing in your home state – at a track you really enjoy and have had success at – may be the perfect remedy to help Hamlin turn things around. I would not be surprised by a win.
Top story line
Gordon
• Jeff Gordon continues to search for his first win of 2008. Of the five races remaining on the schedule, Martinsville is his best chance to break that winless streak. Gordon leads all active drivers with seven career wins at Martinsville. His track record there of late is almost as enviable as Johnson's: In Gordon's last 11 starts at Martinsville, he has four wins, three runner-ups, two other top fives and two more top 10s. If anyone is to challenge Johnson's superiority there, it'll be Gordon. The question is, will he? – Jerry Bonkowski
• Can Jeff Burton continue to turn up the heat and close the gap on Jimmie Johnson? Burton may not have been the most likely of the 12 candidates to win the 2008 Sprint Cup Series title, but the 41-year-old driver is demonstrating the true advantage of experience. His choosing the middle lane and pinning Johnson to the bottom en route to his Charlotte win illustrates his determination and ability. Few drivers can match Burton's knowledge of the sport. We will see again this weekend the hidden value of experience as Burton approaches a difficult track physically and mechanically. – Ricky Craven
• Now that the Chase has essentially become a three-man show (for the time being) between Johnson, Biffle and Burton, will anyone else use Martinsville to step up and make a run? Not likely. However, it doesn't mean the next five weekends won't feature exciting racing. The real drama? A diehard comeback effort by Carl Edwards, who really wants this title. – Bob Margolis
• How big a points lead will Johnson have leaving Martinsville? It will be one of two things – either he'll have the championship virtually locked up, or it'll be an even tighter battle. – Jay Hart
From The Source
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: "We've had stuff go wrong that's out of our hands – Talladega with that wreck we had nowhere to go and last week at Lowe's with the tire deal. I'm very proud of the way my team has been prepared and how hard they've been working. It's a true testament to how good of an organization Hendrick Motorsports is. I'm just proud of them. Hopefully we can pick it up at Martinsville. This Chase isn't over yet."
