Busch holds all the cards

With the differential between fifth and 14th being as close as it is – just 122 points – heading into Saturday night's race at Richmond, one driver could alter the entire tempo of the race and potentially change the game plan of those he is competing against for a spot in the Chase.

I believe that driver could be Kyle Busch.

If Busch runs an average race, as he did in Atlanta, that will allow Matt Kenseth (12th place, 37 points ahead of Busch) to race a Matt Kenseth race. Matt is as smart and calculating as any driver in the field. While he is susceptible to the normal risks of racing on a short track, he is not at risk of beating himself. Matt is a former champion and one of only two drivers to qualify for every Chase (Jimmie Johnson being the other). Left to conduct his own race on his own terms, Matt and his killer bee crew will succeed again in making the playoffs.

The same can be said of Greg Biffle and Mark Martin and Ryan Newman and Juan Pablo Montoya.

Biffle is in familiar territory. He fought his way into last year's Chase without winning a race, and he and his team will use that experience to their advantage this year.

Martin has the same driver capacity of which I used to describe Kenseth, but he also has the invaluable advantage of being fast every week. Left to make the Chase on his own accord, he will.

Newman and Montoya have not won in 2009, but have displayed the consistency necessary to capitalize on the points system in place.

Ultimately, every one of the bubble drivers would prefer to qualify up front, have the advantage of an early pit stall selection, run among the leaders all night and secure their place in the Chase void of any drama. And that may, in fact, be exactly what happens.

But &helllip; there is potential for another scenario, one where Kyle Busch storms to the front, makes the impression early that he can lead the most laps and win the race.

Let's say he does all this and we see more of the long, green-flag runs which have become commonplace in Sprint Cup racing this year, and he puts more and more cars a lap down. What if those cars are bubble drivers? How might it affect one of these drivers who, having a tough night, looks up at the scoreboard halfway through the race only see to the No. 18 topping the scoring tower?

If that happens, then I expect the safe game plans to be tossed off pit boxes and calculators will be overheating. Strategy will come into play, because teams within Chase range will have to figure out ways to minimize the points erosion being inflicted by Busch.

Do they risk pitting early for fresh tires? Do they stay out under caution to lead a lap and gain five valuable bonus points?

While there is a reward that potentially comes with these strategies, there is also risk. If you pit early, a caution could follow, leaving you three laps down. If you stay out to lead a lap, you will restart at the back of the pack, which increases the potential risk of getting caught up in someone else's accident.

Pessimists could look at Kyle Busch and his 14th-place position in the standings and say he is simply not good enough often enough to expect him to go out and dominate the race under these difficult circumstances. The glass half-full view would be that the 18 team has won four times, has come close to another four wins, and when they are on their game they can light up the track like no other. And don't forget, no driver has a better average finish at Richmond than Kyle Busch. And it's not just a good average; it's great (6.1).

The top 12 teams heading into Richmond know where they stand. I guarantee you that every driver, car owner, crew chief and team member knows where they need to finish in relation to how all of their competitors finish. And they all believe they are worthy of being in the Chase because the last 25 races have confirmed it.

But it's this one race that's left that will or will not punch their ticket into the playoff.

I am not predicting Kyle Busch will lead three-quarters of the race in Virginia, putting a handful of bubble drivers a lap down and cruising to win No. 5. But he's certainly capable of doing just that. And if he does, then you're going to see a scramble among Chase contenders who feel their place in the playoff is in jeopardy.

It's hard to imagine being 37 points out of a Chase spot with a single race remaining and feel as though you have an advantage. But that's the mindset I believe Kyle Busch needs to arrive with in Richmond.