Statistically Speaking: Big fields
Forget the changes to the 2007 Chase for the Nextel Cup and the Car of Tomorrow, forget about Toyota entering the top level of American stock car racing, even put aside for a moment the defection of Formula One ace Juan Pablo Montoya and Champ Car standout A.J. Allmendinger.
NASCAR's biggest storyline of 2007 – as well as its biggest challenge – is going to be the massive car counts each weekend.
Before the start of the season, 52 full-time teams plan to run all or most of the 36-race schedule. With another half dozen part-time and developmental teams showing up each week, NASCAR is facing the challenge of keeping more than 60 sponsors engaged and enthused about this brand of racing when only 43 of them will compete on any given Sunday.
It is the age-old story of a dog chasing a car – for all his good intentions, what does he do once he catches it? – and NASCAR risks getting run over by its own popularity.
Car counts have been on the rise for the last five years in Nextel Cup. In 2002 and 2003, 1,653 entrants attempted to qualify for the 1,548 slots in 36 points-paying races. That number jumped to 1,716 in 2004, was 1,739 in 2005, and settled into a high of 1,771 last year. That means 223 cars went home before race day last year, leaving well-heeled sponsors sitting in the grandstand without a driver for whom to cheer. With an average Nextel Cup sponsorship running somewhere in the $15-$20 million range, this was more than a minor disappointment.
During the last five years, five races have showcased fields of more than 55 cars. The two biggest races in that span were last year's Daytona 500 and the 2004 fall Bass Pro Shops 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway – both of which boasted 58 entries. The 2005 Daytona 500 had 57 cars take to the track, while the season-ending Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway drew 56 cars in 2004 and again in 2006.
As impressive as those numbers are, look for even bigger fields in 2007. With a base of 52 full-time teams, some of the marquee events such as the Daytona 500, the Coke 600 and the Brickyard could draw more than 60 cars. If that happens, at least 17 teams will fail to make the show, and with them some of the biggest-named sponsors are going to be very unhappy.
When faced with a similar situation in 2004 after Scott Riggs (with Valvoline) and Scott Wimmer (with Caterpillar) failed to qualify at Atlanta, NASCAR implemented the "Scott Free" rule that guaranteed the top 35 in owner points a slot in the field regardless of how slow they were in time trials. Unless NASCAR is willing to increase the size of the field – especially in high-profile races like those mentioned above – there are going to be even more dissatisfied stockholders in the Fortune 500 companies whose cars are forced to retire early, as typically only eight spots will be up for grabs of those teams not already in the top 35.
Dale Jarrett and Dave Blaney were supposed to be Toyota's guaranteed tickets into the early races, but those assurances may end as early as the completion of week five. NASCAR has already warned Jarrett that if he habitually needs the past champion's provisional to make the races, the sanctioning body may implement a midseason rule limiting the number of times that gift can be used. Blaney, meanwhile, is going to have to get his Camry dialed in very quickly to make certain he is among the top 35 once the 2007 season points start to determine who has a free pass into the races.
The remainder of the Toyota teams and several other new entries campaigning a variety of cars will be forced to fight hard to qualify for the first five races of the season. To make the shows, these teams will have to ignore race trim practice on Fridays and focus on qualifying, which will make them ill-prepared for the race. It is conceivable that each of these drivers could miss one of the first five events. Just as bad, if they struggle during the race itself, they will earn minimal points regardless of how they qualified.
NASCAR reacted decisively when Valvoline and Caterpillar went home early in 2004, but in 2007 they may face the ire of UPS and Burger King, and they may not have any more aces up their sleeve.
Five single largest entry fields in the last five years:
1. 2006 Daytona 500 – 58 cars
1. 2004 Bass Pro Shops 500 – 58 cars
3. 2005 Daytona 500 – 57 cars
4. 2006 Ford 400 – 56 cars
4. 2004 Ford 400 – 56 cars
Five biggest average entry lists during the last five years:
1. Daytona 500 at Daytona – 52.8
2. Ford 400 at Homestead – 51.8
3. Allstate 400 at the Brickyard – 50.8
3. Bass Pro Shops 500 at Atlanta – 50.8
5. Coca-Cola 600 at Lowe's – 50.2
