Chase chances: Week 2
Round one of the Chase is in the record books. Time to take a quick look back at how the top 10 have fared and also look ahead:
Favorites
Kevin Harvick: A flawless performance by a team that's brimming with confidence and yet is sharp enough not to overlook any details that could lead to them making a mistake. Harvick's Monte Carlo SS ran like it was on rails in winning at Loudon. Beware: When you're on top, everyone is gunning for you. One media outlet already has taken a pot shot at Harvick and RCR by publicizing an unsubstantiated rumor about the team's alleged cheating – a rumor which NASCAR itself denied.
Denny Hamlin: This rookie has the right attitude, plenty of talent and a very smart veteran crew chief in Mike Ford. Hamlin is showing a remarkable amount of grace under pressure. Was his fourth-place finish – behind superstars like Harvick, Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon – a fluke or the real deal? It's still too early to tell. Beware: How much longer will the above-mentioned superstars let Hamlin sit at the big kids’ table?
Matt Kenseth: For a team that has had its share of cold streaks this season, Sunday's run at Loudon didn't leave you feeling warm and fuzzy. Now is not the time for the No. 17 to have one of its cold streaks. In the team's defense, however, Kenseth did have mechanical issues all afternoon that could be blamed for keeping him out of the top five. In the June event at Dover – site of this weekend's race – Kenseth started 19th and finished first. Expect a repeat performance this weekend. Beware: Anything less than a win Sunday will be a letdown for this team.
Jeff Gordon: Without Gordon behind the wheel, this team might not be in the Chase. The main ingredient Gordon brings is a never-give-up attitude, which has saved the No. 24 from disaster more times than not. Gordon also knows the value of not over-racing the car, which he proved last weekend when he let Stewart take second. This team still has a lot to prove. Beware: Gordon can't afford to have a race like his Hendrick teammates Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch had last weekend. If he does, this team will never recover.
Kasey Kahne: The No. 9 team didn't have the kind of race it needed at Loudon. A 16th-place finish is OK in April or May, but not in September and not in the Chase. Kahne, Kenny Francis and Co. still do have their excellent 1½-mile program up their sleeve. If they can just make it to Kansas unscathed, they'll remain contenders. Beware: Kahne must win at Kansas to win the title.
Have a shot
Jeff Burton: Burton looked like a real contender at Loudon until the final 20 laps, when he pulled another of his trademark drop-like-an-anchor moves. If this team can do as well in the final 20 laps like it does in the first 20, Burton will be fighting it out with his teammate Harvick for the Nextel Cup title. Beware: Will someone please put some caffeine in Burton's drink bottle?
Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Earnhardt Jr. admitted that he and his team just didn't get the job done last weekend. Early in the race, it looked as though he had a car to win. Then, as the pit stops began, his car got worse and worse. Were pit box calls or the driver at fault? Earnhardt was destroying the competition early in the June Dover race until he broke a brake rotor. He'll be strong again this weekend at the Monster Mile. Beware: This is a team that will not recover from a bad race.
Jimmie Johnson: So this team had problems last weekend. No worries, mate. The 48 thrives on adversity – it's almost expected with this group. Chad Knaus is the best at rallying his troops and taking them back into battle stronger than ever. Dover is one of their better tracks and it will show this Sunday. Beware: Teams get just one mulligan in the Chase.
Long shot
Kyle Busch: Once again, young Busch found himself in the middle of someone else's brain fade with nowhere to go, and the result was a crumpled race car. History tells us that in most cases a team can't come back from a disastrous Chase start. We'll hear a lot of "it's not over yet" from this group, but right now they are just fighting to survive. Beware: Once more, teams get only one mulligan in the Chase.
Mark Martin: Martin was quoted after last weekend's race as saying he's not worried about the points and that he absolutely doesn't care. He also said that he had a better car than where it finished. Sounds like a guy who's just happy to be in the Chase. That's got to be making his sponsors and team owner Jack Roush real happy. Beware: Even Martin's run in his truck (where's he's usually hot, hot, hot) was mediocre last weekend. Maybe he's getting tired.
Wild card
Tony Stewart: Having established himself as the permanent Chase wild card, Stewart will have a lot to say about who will be this year's champion. At first glance, that may favor his rookie teammate Hamlin, but there are a few other drivers in the mix whom Stewart would like to see up on the stage in December. Somehow, it's hard to imagine that Kenseth is one of them. Beware: Stewart could win at least one more race in the Chase (if not more), throwing a real monkey wrench into the process.
