Chase chances: Experience matters

Last week, I gave attention to the top four drivers in the Sprint Cup Series who are all virtual locks to Chase. This week, I want to give attention to the next four I consider safe to make the Chase and offer my perspective on their chances.

Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle and Kevin Harvick currently sit fifth through eighth in the standings. With two races left before the Chase begins, all four control their own destiny. A solid performance in this weekend's Pepsi 500 would go a long way in making them comfortable heading into Richmond.

The best chance these four have to win the 2008 crown is to capitalize on their wealth of experience. Here's how I believe these four stack up:

• Tony Stewart – The two-time champion has the greatest depth in the experience category. Having won a title in the Chase format gives him the advantage if he is a contender late in the year.

Stewart has the organization, the team and the talent to win it all, but he also has the burden and distraction of being in a transition period. At least part of the week, Stewart is focused on 2009 as an owner/driver. Meanwhile, the Gibbs organization is preparing for Joey Lagano to take control of the No. 20 car.

How well Stewart and his present team manage this distraction will have a lot to do with their sustainability in the Chase.

• Jeff Burton – One of the most respected drivers in the garage area – and always a contender to win the race – Burton seldom, if ever, goes for a win at another driver's expense. That reputation will help him down the stretch as he will be raced by other contenders with the same regard and consideration.

Burton and the 31 team's chances dramatically improve if they can rediscover the speed from 2006. That year, Burton qualified far better on average, an important aspect of the 10-race Chase, as track position has proven very valuable.

• Kevin Harvick – Remember a year ago when Clint Bowyer emerged as the Chase shocker? Harvick can very easily duplicate that performance this year by winning at New Hampshire in three weeks.

Harvick is a former winner in the Granite State and, more importantly, seems to be peaking at the right time. His four consecutive finishes of eighth or better have positioned him to make this year's Chase. If he and his team can expand on this base, they will be a serious threat to win it all.

I believe Richard Childress Racing having two drivers in the Chase is an advantage, as the two teams and drivers will challenge one another, while at the same time bring support to one another.

• Greg Biffle – Perhaps more than any of the other three drivers mentioned, Biffle has the ability to match Carl Edwards and Kyle Busch in the category of speed. It has been my experience racing with Greg that he is a more serious threat to win when put at the front of the field.

Some drivers are great at being the chaser, finding a little extra from the car or track to run down the driver in front of them. Others are at their best when being chased – placed in clean air, using every inch of an unobstructed track to wring speed from the car. Biffle is the latter, and his chances of winning his first Sprint Cup title weigh on his team's ability to either start him at the front or somehow help get him to the front of these 10 Chase races.

Assuming Stewart, Burton, Harvick and Biffle all make the playoffs, their workload will increase when they arrive at New Hampshire. A driver earns 10 bonus points for each win leading up to the Chase. Busch currently has 80 bonus points, Edwards 60. Of the fifth through eighth place drivers, only Burton has a win to date, so all of them will start the Chase with a substantial deficit.

Based on what we've seen so far, and assuming performances don't change once the Chase begins, the odds are against Biffle, Burton, Harvick and Stewart in terms of winning a title. Busch and Edwards are the drivers to beat and will be very difficult to run down. Both have a full tank of confidence and speed, and because of the advantage they will start the Chase with, it is extremely unlikely both will stumble when it matters most.

That said, there is this thing called experience.