UFC reshuffles drawing card deck

There's no need to cry for the future of the Ultimate Fighting Championship, but Saturday night's card in Montreal was not a positive.

There are only a handful of true main-event drawing cards in mixed martial arts, and Chuck Liddell, no matter what his recent won-loss record states, still was near the top of that list.

UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva, also no matter his recent won-loss record, has never been on the list of true drawing cards, and did himself no favors with his UFC 97 performance against Thales Leites.

If we are to believe the word coming out of the show, Liddell's career inside the cage is over. Silva, on the other hand, will continue headlining, but now comes the question after two straight main events that lacked action and disappointed crowds: Who can they match against Silva that will get fans to pay $44.95 on pay-per-view?

The Liddell retirement is still hard to fully grasp. There have been promoters who are friends with top fighters in the past, but I can't ever recall a fight promoter telling a top guy that his career was over when he still had a great degree of marketability left.

Liddell against Forrest Griffin or Rich Franklin would both likely be more successful main events than many of the matches that will headline between now and the end of the year. There are some freak-show type fights he could do that would generate incredible interest, such as moving up in weight and going against Kimbo Slice or even heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar, but UFC isn't interested in going that route.

At least before his loss to Mauricio "Shogun" Rua on Saturday night, Liddell himself blew off retirement talk, even though White said after the show that he had wanted Liddell out of the cage after seeing him down for several minutes due to his KO at the hands of Rashad Evans on Sept. 6 in Atlanta.

But it's the right call. Liddell has no financial need to fight, and at 39, there is no upside to the future in risking potential knockouts when this last fight answered the question that he's no longer a top-level contender. We've seen countless examples in boxing, and we will no doubt see future examples in MMA, of legendary fighters suffering from the punishment they took late in their careers when promoters tried to squeeze every last dime of marketability out of them. Most fighters, for financial reasons, have to continue. But I can't ever recall the decision being made by a promoter, as opposed to the fighter or a commission.

And that's what makes this a tenuous situation. Sure, Liddell and White have been friends for a decade and together helped build the UFC brand and the sport. Liddell's highlight reel knockouts and his look made him a fighting hero to a younger, largely 25- to 34-year-old white audience that gravitated toward the sport in 2005 and 2006 when boxing became too old school and pro wrestling became too scripted. And in recent years, as that original audience base grew and older fans started catching on, Liddell and Randy Couture, as older fighters who were still competing at a high level, became somewhat inspirational characters.

But there will be huge money offers coming from the outside. While Liddell said this past week he would never fight outside the UFC, six months or a year from now, if he still wants to fight, the relationship between Liddell and the company is going to be tested.

Silva, on the other hand, is, with the possible exception of Georges St. Pierre, the best fighter in the company, as his UFC record nine consecutive wins attests. But he also was its weakest-drawing champion, partially because he doesn't speak English well and partially because he hasn't had the right challenger. He beat Rich Franklin too easily, Dan Henderson was still relatively new to the company when they fought, and nobody saw Patrick Cote and Thales Leites as threats.

But UFC is resilient. As bad as this show was, and really, aside from the main event it would have been categorized as an average show, it was nothing like the disaster on July 8, 2006. That show featured a much-anticipated Tito Ortiz-Ken Shamrock rematch that drew record PPV numbers at the time, and lasted only 1:18 when fans believed it was stopped early. Then, it was up to heavyweights Andrei Arlovski and champ Tim Sylvia to save the show, and they had a match somewhat similar to Saturday's main event.

At the time of UFC 61, the Zuffa LLC version of UFC was still in its infancy as far as a proven top-level, pay-per-view performer, and there was genuine concern they had the largest audience ever see the worst show ever and had turned hoards of potential new fans off.

Instead, the next few months saw Shamrock vs. Ortiz set a television ratings record and Ortiz vs. Liddell drew a pay-per-view record, so any thought that Saturday's show did long-term damage should be dismissed. But that year also was loaded with matches people were clamoring to see.

UFC is largely booked with its main events through the end of August, or five shows ahead. Of those, only one, UFC 100 on July 11, looks to be a blow-away level event. That card should be either a record or near-record pay-per-view event.

The company's two top remaining drawing cards, heavyweight champ Brock Lesnar and welterweight champ St. Pierre, both face interesting title defenses. Lesnar goes against Frank Mir, who beat him in 90 seconds in Lesnar's UFC debut via submission.

St. Pierre faces Thiago Alves, who poses St. Pierre's toughest stylistic matchup since his rise to fame. Alves has awesome takedown defense, as Josh Koscheck, the best credentialed wrestler in the division couldn't get him down on Oct. 25, and is a great striker, with strong kicks, knees and punches.

St. Pierre, who may be pound-for-pound the best takedown man in the sport, could find himself in the most trouble he's faced since his loss to Matt Serra if his bread-and-butter move doesn't work against a man who is likely to come into the cage outweighing him by 10 pounds.

The top two matches are combined with a Michael Bisping vs. Dan Henderson fight that is being built up of "The Ultimate Fighter" reality show.

Undoubtedly, if St. Pierre beats Alves and Silva vs. St. Pierre is put together for later this year, it will do top-of-the-line business just because people will see it for what it is: St. Pierre's greatest challenge, and it works with St. Pierre in the underdog role. If that doesn't happen, putting Silva against Demian Maia or Nate Marquardt will need a strong second-billed match to carry the show, and unlike Saturday, there is no Liddell to call on.

The next major show, on May 23, has Evans defending the light heavyweight title against Lyoto Machida. Both are unbeaten but the match easily could be more tactical than explosive. It also features Matt Serra vs. Matt Hughes, a grudge match that would have been huge at the end of 2007 and will likely be the last major match for the loser. That combination should do solid business, although not monster levels.

June 13 is built around Wanderlei Silva vs. Rich Franklin, which on paper could be a great match. And after the surprising pay-per-view success of Franklin vs. Dan Henderson in January, this show, UFC's debut in Germany, will do probably better than average numbers for a European show, probably in the 250,000 to 350,000 buy range.

July 11 will do probably in excess of one million buys, and will likely be the biggest event, whether it be boxing, pro wrestling or MMA, on pay-per-view this year.

August 8 is B.J. Penn vs. Kenny Florian for the lightweight title. It's hard to say how that show will do. Penn drew average numbers with Hughes, better than average with Sean Sherk (although Tito Ortiz helped that show a lot), not so good with Joe Stevenson and great with St. Pierre (although that was the most heavily marketed fight in company history).

August 29 has Randy Couture vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, a battle of two of the all-time great heavyweights. If Couture wins impressively, Couture against either Mir or Lesnar for the title will do huge numbers. A Nogueira win will likely put him in the title match position, but it won't put up anywhere near the same numbers