Evans-Griffin is up for grabs

Forrest Griffin and Rashad Evans' battle for the UFC light heavyweight championship on Saturday night at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas is a difficult fight to pick.

Last on a loaded card, they will be the final two fighters entering the cage in what has been the company's most successful year on pay-per-view.

Reigning champion Griffin (16-4) goes into the fight in a unique role. He's the slight favorite, most likely because the public has seen him longer as a star and is apt to pick him, rather than because of his ability to win. His biggest advantage is that he's beaten better fighters than Evans has faced, with a close title win over Quinton Jackson, and a decisive win over Mauricio "Shogun" Rua, in his last two outings.

Evans (17-0-1) is undefeated, with a list of solid fighters as victims. But aside from his brutal knockout over Chuck Liddell on Sept. 6 in Atlanta which earned him the title shot, he's never faced a top-level contender.

Another key in the story is Evans' best friend and training partner, Keith Jardine, knocked out Griffin in the champion's last loss two years ago.

"They [Greg Jackson's camp] always come up with a real good strategy," said Griffin. "Keith fought me before and knocked me out, so it will help them with a game plan. I think me and Keith are stylistically pretty similar."

The two have plenty of obvious similarities. Both are 29. Both were unknowns until winning "The Ultimate Fighter" reality show in its first two seasons (Griffin in Season 1 and Evans in Season 2). Both had to overcome the stigma that they didn't earn their stardom. Both at this point have shut up most critics by holding their own, in both cases, with Tito Ortiz, who Griffin lost a close decision to and Evans drew with in his only career blemish. Both have noticeably improved since those matches.

Griffin has greatly improved his skill level, and is a lot bigger and stronger than the brawler who went three rounds with Stephan Bonnar in what some feel is the most important fight in UFC history, the finals of the first "Ultimate Fighter."

Evans, who came in with wrestling as his primary skill, has shown explosive stand-up power with two all-time highlight-reel knockouts: his high kick to Sean Salmon two years ago and his punch that laid out Liddell a few months back.

Griffin is something of an enigma. Thanks to his win over Bonnar, he became one of the most popular fighters in the sport. But he was considered a guy fans loved to see, one who would give you a good showing with anyone.

The Griffin attraction was that he'd fight his heart out. An easy bleeder, the vision of Griffin, his face pounded into near oblivion by Ortiz, getting up from a near finish and telling Ortiz to bring it on epitomized his appeal. Unlike most fighters, who had to win against top competition to be popular, he only needed to satisfy people by showing he wouldn't give up when overmatched. He was hardly considered championship caliber.

Most figured the Rua fight was to get the then Japanese star, who many considered No. 1 in the world at the time, a reputation in the U.S. Then, when Griffin won and got the title shot at Jackson, it was considered as UFC booking a marketable fight. Griffin earned a title shot, but that didn't mean he had much of a shot to win it. He was put in the position because he and Jackson as opposite coaches figured to be able to produce a good season of "TUF" with two comedic personalities. The real money fight was Jackson defending against Liddell.

Not that the UFC was unhappy about the turn of events. Dana White and the UFC brass were beaming when their reality show winner choked out the guy ranked No. 1 in the division, feeling it implied that UFC competition and the winners of the reality show were actually underrated, and that the competition in Japan was overrated.

On the other hand, Evans knocking out Liddell cost the company millions in revenue, as Liddell challenging Griffin for the title would have made this one of the biggest UFC events in history. But nobody seemed sad at the ability to market "The Ultimate Fighter" Season 1 winner vs. Season 2 winner for the company's marquee championship, a first in history.

"Obviously, it may be a form of validation," said Evans. "Two guys fighting for the title from the show is pretty impressive. I think it's a great accomplishment for Forrest and myself.

"Ever since I came out of the show, I was keeping up with Forrest because he came out and did excellent. For us, it really shows the show works to get the best talent out there. The fighters are going to be the fighters of the future. We're going to be the Chuck Liddells and Randy Coutures of the future because we'll have the followings because the people saw us from the start."

In the stand-up game, Evans appears to have the faster hands. Griffin clearly has the better footwork and is more of a general in controlling the pace of a match. But Evans, often a slow starter, has shown the one-punch knockout power Griffin lacks.

Evans is the better credentialed wrestler, and his win over Liddell was hardly his first upset before a big crowd. While wrestling for Michigan State in the 2003 NCAA tournament, he defeated defending national champion Greg Jones, considered one of the best U.S. collegiate wrestlers of all time, knocking Jones, who ended up winning three NCAA titles, out of the tournament and handing him one of his three losses in four years of college.

But Griffin is physically bigger, at 6-3, and he's a 240-pounder who cuts heavily to make 205. Evans, at 5-11, is on the small side for a 205-pounder. It's unclear who will dominate the ground game. Griffin now has a solid ground game. Evans has good takedowns but has never won via submission in UFC. He's also never been submitted in his career.

"He's explosive, athletic, has a great wrestling background and some really powerful striking," said Griffin. "He can knock people out with his hands and his feet."

Evans has won a number of times via decision, and has never faded in a three-round fight. But the fourth and fifth rounds are uncharted waters for him. Griffin went five rounds with Jackson, and it's very conceivable this match will go the distance, making conditioning possibly the key element.

Winning the championship often may be a life-changing experience, but Griffin has tried to avoid those changes as much as possible. He equated his career with currently standing on the train tracks with a train coming, and has a reputation for being among the hardest trainers in the sport – the first to get in the gym and the last to leave, and someone that nobody is going to outwork. There's no time to enjoy or reflect. In fact, Griffin does not even have the championship belt in his home. It resides in the UFC offices in Las Vegas, and Griffin only has it and wears it when needed for publicity purposes.

"It's like wearing a target around," he said.

"I don't leave the house. I go to the gym and the grocery store. And that's about it."