Tigers title chances cut in half by 0-7 start
The Tigers were a logical choice to win the AL Central this season, and when AccuScore simulated the MLB 2008 Season 10,000 times the Tigers won the division 51.1 percent of the time and made the playoffs 55.6 percent of the time.
After opening the season 0-7, the Tigers’ post-season chances have been cut in half to just 28.8 percent. The first six losses were doubly costly because they were at home and against AL Central rivals the Kansas City Royals and the Chicago White Sox. These teams increased their projected win total by 5+ games and their chances of winning the division have increased by 4 or 5 times.
PRESEASON FORECAST | PLAYOFF% | FORECAST | ||
AL CENTRAL | PLAYOFF | WIN DIV | W | L |
Detroit Tigers | 55.6% | 51.1% | 87.8 | 74.2 |
Cleveland Indians | 45.4% | 40.4% | 86.4 | 75.6 |
Minnesota Twins | 3.5% | 3.1% | 73.9 | 88.1 |
Kansas City Royals | 3.6% | 3.0% | 74.0 | 88.0 |
Chicago White Sox | 2.8% | 2.4% | 73.2 | 88.8 |
AFTER 0-6 START | PLAYOFF% | FORECAST | ||
AL CENTRAL | PLAYOFF | WIN DIV | W | L |
Cleveland Indians | 40.3% | 36.8% | 84.2 | 77.8 |
Detroit Tigers | 28.8% | 26.0% | 82.2 | 79.8 |
Chicago White Sox | 23.2% | 20.6% | 81.0 | 81.0 |
Kansas City Royals | 16.1% | 14.3% | 79.0 | 83.0 |
Minnesota Twins | 2.3% | 2.1% | 71.3 | 90.7 |
However, it is still very early in the season. As the Yankees proved last season you can be several games under .500 several months into the season and still have time to make the playoffs. Detroit’s 28.8 percent chance of making the playoffs is still 6th best in the American League in current simulations.
