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http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__7/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-82423317-1227563489.jpg?ymb9VrADfTkCJkB8I know they're on your computer somewhere, tucked away in your favorite links. Fantasy history, player versus team, pretty numbers on a spreadsheet. And it's time to do the right thing, my friends: select and delete.

A short memory is the best friend of a goalie or a defensive back, and it's also something you want as a fantasy owner. Players improve or regress, some schemes jell while others fall apart, adjustments are made, roles change. And this point really gets hammered home when we look at all the Week 12 results that defied the historical trends between player and opponent.

Remember Week 4, when Ronnie Brown struck the Patriots with the Wildcat while Matt Cassel and Randy Moss looked like a couple of schmucks? It all reversed in Miami Sunday. The Dolphins single-covering Moss was an unexpected bonus for the Pats, but Cassel's improved significantly since September. And the Patriots, to their credit, have tightened up their run-stopping after a messy first month.

Michael Turner couldn't do a thing against the Panthers the first time around. Sunday he almost tore a rotator cuff from all the end zone spiking. Eddie Royal abused the Raiders on the first Monday of the year. Sunday, you couldn't even tell he was on the field. Hines Ward had a history of success against the Bengals into Week 12. Thursday night, he wasn't a factor (though he did lose one big catch on a penalty). DeAngelo Williams didn't get much in Carolina's earlier win over Atlanta. Sunday, he went off in a loss.

I'm not suggesting that you should completely blow off matchups as you make your fantasy decisions, but make sure you're staying in the here and now. Games played two years ago or even two months ago just don't matter very much for projection purposes (the 2007 Patriots and Giants can tell you that). And looking back to previous seasons might be the biggest waste of time in this fantasy racket; the teams might not change uniforms, but just about anything else is in a state of flux. Look back 3-4 weeks at most, and use that as the foundation for your projections.

With that rant off my chest, let's look around the Week 12 landscape and talk some football:

Leon Washington has hit double-digit touches just once in the last two months, and he had just nine at Tennessee, albeit two touchdowns followed. Would 4-5 more touches a game be too much to ask, New York? It's so difficult to flex-start a player who sees the ball this infrequently, but Washington's explosive skills can't be ignored. He's the type of player who should give Denver fits next week.

Sticking with the Jets, it would be nice if they'd drop the coy act on their kickers so we could roll with Jay Feely (51 points in four weeks) and not have to worry about it. Mike Nugent seems healthy enough to kick now, but how can the team go away from Feely while he's dialed in? Unfortunately, they refuse to say much about it until game day.

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__7/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-350525727-1227569727.jpg?ymq9VrADBIjhLeun Imagine the day when Calvin Johnson plays with a star quarterback, or heck, an average one. He's basically had one no-show all year, no matter that he's doubled all over the field and his teammates can't deliver the ball to him accurately.

I'm all for Chris Johnson and he'll go off against Detroit Thursday, and Steve Slaton is a nifty player, but it's time to concede that Matt Forte is the best rookie back for fantasy purposes. It doesn't mean he's the best player, mind you, but he's definitely got the best setup.

Kevin Walter can play on my team anytime. He understands how to set up defenders, and he catches the ball in stride just very well.

Accept that the LaDainian Tomlinson we saw Sunday night is who he'll be for the rest of the year. Still a useful, handy, solid player, someone you start every week. But the second gear is gone, the ability to plant a foot and embarrass a defender, the ability to turn 11-yard runs into 50-yard runs. Between the career workload and the dings of this year, he's not at full throttle. To say anything else at this point is closing both of your eyes and taking a leap of faith.

Philip Rivers played more than well enough to beat the Colts (24-for-31, 288 yards, two touchdowns, 9.3 YPA, 126.8 rating). I didn't like Norv Turner's endgame, how about you?

Dwayne Bowe rarely goes bananas, but he's doing something just about every week. My kind of fantasy player, and he's going to get better.

Shaun Hill won't overwhelm anyone with his physical gifts, but he understands what's going on out there. A shame he's not a little taller, or the arm couldn't be a little stronger. But there's a playmaker here.

Terrell Owens has an extra gear when he sniffs the end zone, and he certainly abused the Niners for three hours Sunday. That said, didn't it look like Nate Clements was playing in ski boots?

The Giants don't need Plaxico Burress, and I'll be surprised if he's there next year.

Jamal Lewis probably had a big game coming if the Browns didn't lose their way against the Texans. Still, it's funny that a back that's used as much as Lewis can still be without a 90-yard rushing game as we hit Thanksgiving week.

I never had a problem with Maurice Jones-Drew, it was more an issue with the team's play calling and the spotty play of the line. It's great to see the first concern no longer applies.

http://a323.yahoofs.com/ymg/ept_sports_fantasy_experts__7/ept_sports_fantasy_experts-228407450-1227569387.jpg?ymq9VrADlEkaQwGq They don't come any tougher than Clinton Portis, who's willing himself to yardage these days while he's clearly not 100 percent healthy. In a lot of cities the running back spot is fungible, but if you take Portis away from this Redskins team, they're going nowhere.

You have a better chance hitting Powerball than you do figuring out the matrix that is the Baltimore backfield. Willis McGahee and Ray Rice got their chances Sunday and couldn't get it done; they left the door wide open for Le'Ron McClain.

I don't blame Andy Reid for wanting to see Kevin Kolb play eventually, but asking the unproven kid to enter a hornet's nest at Baltimore, that didn't make any sense.

A tip of the cap to my buddy Brad Evans, who keeps finding production for you, buried at the bottom of the barrel. Another hit this week, as Fred Jackson collected 76 yards on 11 touches. Anyone can tell you the obvious in this numbers racket, but it takes skill to find hidden stats in the trenches. 

Tyler Thigpen's numbers were a lot better than his actual play. We can live with that from a fantasy perspective, but he definitely took a step back against Buffalo.

Get Davone Bess on your radar, he's been progressing nicely and Greg Camarillo, sadly, is out for the season. If you can run reliable routes, Chad Pennington will find you.

Josh McDaniels is going places. And if I'm Cassell, I want to be in the same city.

It's hard to go wrong with Buffalo Tom. Enjoy today's musical selection.

---

Photos via Getty Images (Moss, Johnson) and US Presswire (crushed Kolb)

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46 Comments

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  1. pianow
    1. Posted by pianow Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:10 pm EDT

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    That's my Week 12 notebook, what did you chaps see?
  2. Dunder Mifflin
    2. Posted by Dunder Mifflin Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:49 pm EDT

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    Joseph Forte...?
  3. pj20
    3. Posted by pj20 Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:48 pm EDT

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    I saw all of my planning to get guys with great schedules (LT, Addai, Ronnie Brown, Jamal Lewis) go OUT THE WINDOW this week in a must-win game. Thank god I got Peyton Hillis in for Ronnie Brown, but now I'm only up 6 points going against Colston for the right to survive.
    I hate/love fantasy football. Skill and research only get you so far. You need to save up ALL of your positive karma and lucky chickens if you want to win a football title. Just not fair...
  4. Andrew
    4. Posted by Andrew Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:27 pm EDT

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    Fungible? Loving the verbiage in this one!
  5. pj20
    5. Posted by pj20 Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:48 pm EDT

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    oh yeah and Dwyane Wade is god.
    pianow, got any words of wisdom to keep my h2h hockey team from committing suicide? I drafted Luongo and Nabokov with my first 2 picks, and am still holding onto Mats. I am sitting in 3rd place with a 15-2-1 in goalie cats, which is sure to end.
    I seriously might give up.
  6. Carlos Montoya
    6. Posted by Carlos Montoya Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:19 pm EDT

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    Cassel isn't really usable this week against PIT is he?
    What about Thigpen @ OAK?
    Are these week recent studs destined for a hiccup in week 13?
  7. teammember4life
    7. Posted by teammember4life Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:59 pm EDT

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    76 yards is no reason to get excited
  8. Pep
    8. Posted by Pep Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:19 pm EDT

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    Cassel won't do much versus pitt that's for sure
  9. eorgia
    9. Posted by eorgia Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:12 pm EDT

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    Top players perform regardless (sometimes the top player is on D though), digging somewhat deep, lets not forget what Kevin Faulk continues to provide in a flex spot (not a Pats fan though).
  10. masterzag
    10. Posted by masterzag Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:03 pm EDT

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    pj20, think thats bad, Brodeur, Gaborik, Goonchar first 3 picks
  11. The Thrilla in Vanilla
    11. Posted by The Thrilla in Vanilla Thu Sep 03, 2009 11:01 pm EDT

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    Some Shaun Hill love? Gasp!
  12. walsh
    12. Posted by walsh Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:57 pm EDT

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    the losers who post "first" on these things are... well.. losers.
  13. FootballGuru
    13. Posted by FootballGuru Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:06 pm EDT

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    I'm pretty much headed to my league's fantasy playoffs. Question about Randy Moss in Wk 15? Play him against Oakland or bench him? It might be a gimme matchup, but the black death Nnamdi Asomugha will be on him. Not sure what to do. My other WRs are Boldin, Isaac Bruce and Kevin Curtis and I need to start 2 of those 4.
    Any thoughts?
  14. EMcClung
    14. Posted by EMcClung Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:37 pm EDT

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    typo in the HIll section: "but he *understand* what's going on out there"
  15. C Diddy
    15. Posted by C Diddy Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:27 pm EDT

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    I keep benching Thigpen for Favre, and losing points. But who wouldn't?
  16. Kyle
    16. Posted by Kyle Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:55 pm EDT

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    I know that Cassel has greatly improved, but can we expect more days like that out of Randy Moss? He has been inconsistent this year but with Cassel making big leaps forward is it possible for Moss to be a top 10 or even top 5 receiver from here on out?
  17. The Jaker
    17. Posted by The Jaker Thu Sep 03, 2009 9:31 pm EDT

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    "The Dolphins single-covering Moss was an unexpected bonus for the Pats" - pianowski
    "Dolphins will be looking for those short routes so Moss is gonna find an occasional mano a mano. You can bet Belecheet wants to try and embarrass the fins after the first debacle. He's gonna have Cassel take a few shots down the field this week. Book a long one to the endzone for Moss." - me in last weeks dissenting opinions post
  18. kurt1752
    18. Posted by kurt1752 Thu Sep 03, 2009 4:54 pm EDT

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    Big Red Letter Day, good call.
  19. pianow
    19. Posted by pianow Thu Sep 03, 2009 8:10 pm EDT

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    The Pats scoring a last-minute touchdown was all Belichick too, the classic salute on the way out.
  20. BH
    20. Posted by BH Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:06 pm EDT

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    Player/Points: Forte 199, Peterson 177.5, Tomlinson 165.4, Westbrook 141. I win. In a .5 PPR league Forte leads every player in scoring that isn't a QB. Turner and Boldin are right there 10 points behind. When does Forte make his way to the top of the rankings? Happy to say I didn't panic and trade Moss earlier in the season. Randy for Santana doesn't seem so great now, does it Scott? Marshawn has now put up 46 points since I said he was a must-trade-for 2 weeks ago in your comments. Should have even more if not for the TD thief Edwards.
  21. S P A C E
    21. Posted by S P A C E Thu Sep 03, 2009 7:19 pm EDT

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    Cutler best be showing a little more fire since I don't have a backup. Thank you to Hillis. No problem tossing him in the rest of the way, since Graham is lost. I'm gonna have to try out Bess in the Flex next week. I'll cross my Fingas.
  22. Chris
    22. Posted by Chris Thu Sep 03, 2009 3:25 pm EDT

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    I absolutely am loving my trade two weeks ago: Jacobs for Addai.
    Now I have Manning and Addai with their (knock on wood) piece of cake schedule. My other two RB are All-Day Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson, who both have good matchups down the stretch as well. Let's HOPE that everything pans out!
    Anyone else surprised that Vinatieri can still kick the ball 51 yards for the win? He STILL is yet to kick a big field goal when LOSING. All of his "clutch" kicks are during tied ballgames. I'm not complaining, being a Colts fan, but I'd like to see him kick a winning field goal against San Diego when down 23-21.

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