Yahoo Fantasy Hockey: Why Mark Scheifele is a stud, Petr Mrazek a dud
Dobber launched his fantasy hockey website DobberHockey back in 2005 and has been Puck Daddy's resident fantasy hockey 'expert' since 2009. Rick Roos has been a senior writer at DobberHockey since 2012.
Much has been made of Donald Trump asking supporters to pledge their vote for him. Don’t worry, I’m not getting political; but I’m insisting you make a fantasy hockey pledge - that you’ll not own five certain skaters on any of your fantasy teams in coming years. Why not? Because each is a member of the unfortunate “much better in real life than in fantasy hockey” club.
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Although these skaters are essential to their NHL teams, their real world importance doesn’t come close to translating into comparable fantasy value, at least not at this stage of their careers. Basically, their real world “legend” has grown well beyond their fantasy accomplishments. Or to put it another way, the recognition, awards, and accolades these players have received (or still do) have led to them being so widely known and so well thought of in the real world, that by association their fantasy value has become grossly inflated to the point where the cost to obtain them (via a draft pick or trade) is too high to justify owning them.
Without further ado, here’s the list, noting each player’s average 2015-16 Yahoo draft selection for his position, along with – surprise, surprise – in all but one case his lower current value:
C – Jonathan Toews – Average draft selection = 8th overall C; Current ranking = 21st
RW – Corey Perry – Average draft selection = 6th overall RW; Current ranking = 15th
LW – Rick Nash – Average draft position = 4th overall LW; Current ranking = 67th
D – Drew Doughty - Average draft position = 9th overall D; Current ranking = 6th
D – Alex Pietrangelo - Average draft position = 13th overall D; Current ranking = 52nd
If you have any of them in a keeper, trade them now (especially Doughty, who’s producing unusually well) or before next season. Chances are you’ll get much better value in return, due to that same real world fame and recognition. And make sure not to draft them again; let someone else in your league overpay, or we at Puck Daddy will find you and give you a Trump hairdo in your sleep.
Studs...
Right now, it looks like nothing can stop these skaters from piling up points
Mark Scheifele (12-10-7-17, plus-4, 39 SOG, 10 Hits, 2 PPPts, 3:27 PPTOI)
Although Scheifele tallied 17 points in 19 games around this time in 2015, what we’re seeing now is on an entirely different level, and is no doubt turning heads among Jets brass in much the same way it has awakened poolies. By season’s end, Scheifele’s 82 game scoring pace will have climbed yet again – from 44 points in 2013-14, to 49 points last season, to likely above 60 for 2015-16. And guess what - by this time in 2017, chances are it will be on the rise yet again.
Vincent Trocheck (11-4-8-12, plus-7, 10 PIM, 31 SOG, 21 Hits, 2 PPPts, 2:53 PPTOI)
After starting the season in the bottom six, Trocheck seized opportunities created by injuries to cement his spot on a scoring line, where his sustained top production actually stretches back to 24 points in his last 23 games. Trocheck’s numbers were unremarkable in parts of two prior NHL seasons; but he’s only 22 and once led the entire OHL in scoring, so his pedigree suggests he could continue this success for the rest of 2015-16 and beyond.
Sean Monahan (12-7-6-13, minus-2, 31 SOG, 9 Hits, 3 PPPts, 4 PIM, 158 FOW)
Like last season, Monahan is heating up as winter ends, much to the joy of those in fantasy playoffs. One overlooked benefit is his fairly even contribution in both goals and assists. Last season only 11 forwards posted 30+ goals, 30+ assists; and fewer than half, including Monahan, were center eligible forwards. It’s a similar story for 2015-16, as only 14 other forwards have matched or exceeded Monahan’s 24 goals and 28 assists, with only half being center-eligible.
Duds...
Poolies can only hope what we’ve been seeing from these players won’t last much longer
Dion Phaneuf (7-0-0-0, minus-3, 6 SOG, 11 PIM, 10 Hits, 10 BS)
Remember the splash Phaneuf made arriving in Ottawa? Fast forward to now, and he has points in only five of his 17 games in a Sens uniform. And with him not averaging one SOG per game in this stretch, there’s little hope of an imminent turnaround. Even worse - he’s not even carrying his usual weight in multi-cat leagues.
Petr Mrazek (11GP, 5W, 3.19 GAA, 0.893 SV%, 0 SOs)
It doesn’t take a goalie guru to deduce that Mrazek’s poor recent play is likely due to simple wear and tear. After all, he’s appeared in more 2015-16 games than in his previous NHL campaigns combined, and more than in any one single season since his OHL days. Don’t let this sour you on Mrazek long term, but be wary of him down the stretch.
Ryan Callahan (8-0-0-0, minus-1, 12 SOG, 8 PIM, 11 Hits, 9 BS)
What – you thought Callahan’s 14 points in 12 games stretch in February was sustainable? Not a chance. Callahan (and underwhelming 31 year olds David Backes and Dustin Brown) are cautionary tales good reminders that it’s rare for rough and tumble forwards to remain productive by age 30; and once they start to decline, there’s usually no righting the ship.
The Wire...
Some of these players might end up being short term adds, while others could stay red hot through the end of the season.
Michael Raffl (3%) (8-4-3-9, plus-5, 16 SOG, 6 Hit, 4 PIMs)
How is this different than the annual hot streaks from Raffl that ended up being just blips in the radar? For one, it’s come with him not playing alongside Claude Giroux or Jakub Voracek, so it’s somewhat more believable. Even still, until Raffl puts together a more sustained scoring binge, he’ll likely remain just a secondary forward for the Flyers, which means poolies should jump on his bandwagon when – like now – he’s red hot, but be quick to climb off board after he starts to cool.
Zach Bogosian (9%) (12-4-6-10, plus-6, 38 SOG, 22 PIM, 3 PPPts, 9 Hits, 20 BS)
Every poolie reading this likely has been burned by Bogosian and his legendary injury woes. The good news is Bogosian already missed a chunk of time this season and he’s averaging just under 24:00 per game during this stretch, so he could continue producing well even into next season.
Marko Dano (4%) (5-3-2-5, even, 14 SOG, 10 Hits, 2 PIM)
Yes, it’s just a handful of games; and it followed Dano being scoreless in his first five contests in Winnipeg. But this might be sustainable through the end of the season, since he’s received 14:00+ of Ice Time in each of the past four games (and some regular PP shifts), after averaging far lower in his scoreless games. Clearly Winnipeg wants to see what it has with Dano, and he seems happy to oblige.
Frans Nielsen (30%) (7-1-7-8, minus-1, 13 SOG, 4 PPPts, 5 Hits, 7 BS, 46 FOW)
Nielsen is that guy you always see on your waiver wire who you want to grab, but bypass for the flavor of the week. It was only two seasons ago that he posted 58 points, so his recent scoring binge could stretch through the rest of this campaign. Plus, he provides nice across the board contribution for “kitchen sink” fantasy leagues.
Zack Smith (20%)(11-7-4-11, plus-8, 16 PIM, 26 SOG, 28 Hits, 3 PPPts, 54 FOW)
This year’s NHL Cy Young candidate is none other than Smith, and his 21 goals, nine assists. Poolies might as well climb aboard for the ride while Kyle Turris is out. But don’t give up value to get Smith in a keeper, since chances are he won’t see improved success next season – just ask 2014-15 Cy Young winner Brandon Pirri.
Phillip Grubauer (8%) (6GP, 3W, 1.83 GAA, 0.942 SV, 0 SO)
Forget what you read about Braden Holtby breaking Martin Brodeur’s record of 48 regular season wins; the Caps are thinking Stanley Cup all the way. They know they need to avoid leaning on Holtby too much, as shown by his weaker recent play. Enter Grubauer, who played as much in February alone as he did in the entre first two months of the season, and who’s started three of eight Caps games in March. With a superb Caps teams in front of him, Grubauer is a nice option for spot starts down the stretch.
Robby Fabbri (5%) (8-2-6-8, plus-3, 13 SOG, 8 PIM, 1 PPPt, 9 Hits)
Who’s led the Blues in scoring from February through the first two weeks of March? Vladimir Tarasenko, right? Would else could it be? Nope – try Fabbri, with 16 points in 19 games. Although Fabbri’s ice time might shrink come NHL playoff time, that’s of little consequence to poolies, who only need the 20 year old rookie to keep firing on all cylinders until game 82. And he looks poised to do just that.
Devante Smith-Pelly (1%) (7-5-2-7, plus-1, 12 SOG, 9 hits, 4 BS)
It’s easy to forget that Smith-Pelly is still only 23 years old, what with this being his fifth season and him having played his way out of Anaheim and Montreal. Now that he’s finally getting an opportunity in New Jersey, he’s seizing it, to the tune of point per game production so far. This run of success should carry through the end of this season, and makes him a nice sleeper for 2016-17.
Rick Roos is a Senior Writer at Dobber Hockey, bringing you his Fantasy Hockey Cage Match (i.e. ‘This Guy vs. That Guy’) articles every Wednesday.
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