Florida Panthers Vs. New York Islanders: Puck Daddy’s NHL Playoff Preview
(The 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs are upon us. The good news for NBC: There are no Canadian teams to bring down the ratings. The bad news for Sportnet: There are no Canadian teams to bring up the ratings. Such is life. Who wins the Cup? Read our insightful and informative playoff previews!)
How’d They Get Here?
The Florida Panthers were a team many felt would sniff the playoffs but not actually grad ahold of a berth with their jagged feline teeth, waving it back and forth as blood flies through … sorry, we watch a lot of Discovery Channel.
Anyway, the Panthers managed to exceed expectations thanks to stellar goaltending, balanced scoring, the immortality of Jaromir Jagr and a 12-game winning streak that coincided with the Montreal Canadiens’ cannonballing into a pile of hot garbage. Florida won the Atlantic Division with a 47-26-9 record and 103 points.
The New York Islanders finished with 100 points (45-27-10) but needed to secure a playoff seed in the last week of the season. The Islanders have played through nagging injuries and more impactful ones – like losing goalie Jaroslav Halak, perhaps for the first round as well – but cobbled together a playoff season with another great campaign from John Tavares and a lineup of tenacious forwards.
Their Last Playoff Meeting
While the Panthers have faced the Rangers and Devils in the postseason, they’ve never played the Islanders. Which is what happens when this is only their fifth playoff appearance since 1994.
Schedule
Offense
The Panthers were eighth in the NHL in goals-per-game with 2.83, while the Islanders were 11th with 2.77. But how they get their scoring couldn’t be more different.
The Panthers had six players with over 50 points, while the Islanders had three. Jagr led the team with 66 points in 79 games. He also led the team in selfies and being blackmailed for them by models.
He’s led the Panthers’ top line of Aleksander Barkov (28 goals) who is starting to earn his Toews South reputation; and Jonathan Huderdeau, who finished with 59 points in 76 games.
Jussi Jokinen anchored the second line with 60 points in 81 games with Reilly Smith (25 goals). Vincent Trocheck was also a huge part of that balanced scoring with 25 goals, is doubtful for the series with an injured foot. Nick Bjugstad (34 points in 67 games) could have contributed a bit more.
Aaron Ekblad led the Panthers’ defensemen with 36 points, with ageless puck-mover Brian Campbell right there at 31 points in 82 games.
The Panthers had a score-adjusted 5-on-5 Corsi of 49.3 percent, while the Islanders’ was 49.38.
Tavares carried the Islanders’ offense with 33 goals and 37 assists in 78 games, 51 of them coming at even strength. His longtime running-mate Kyle Okposo – without a contract for next season – has 22 goals and 42 assists in 79 games. Frans Nielsen, of the unstoppable shootout move that means nothing in the playoffs, had 20 goals and 32 assists. He’s typically the team’s best defensive center, but it looks like he’ll get a good look with Tavares.
Brock Nelson was the Islanders’ second-leading scorer with 26 goals, with 23 of them (!) coming at even strength. Coach Jack Capuano can scramble his lines, but it appears he might start the playoffs with Nikolay Kulemin (22 points in 81 games) and Josh Bailey (32 points). Ryan Strome (28 points) can be dangerous as well, but the Islanders expected way more from him.
The Islanders will miss Anders Lee (15 goals), who broke his leg late in the season.
On defense, the leading scorer is Nick Leddy (40 points, 19 of which were on special teams), with Johnny Boychuk (25 points) next.
ADVANTAGE: Even
Defense
The Panthers had a 2.44 GAA on the season, seventh in the NHL. They were 17th(!) last season. They gave up an average of 28.5 shots per game at even strength. The Islanders had a 2.57 GAA, giving up an average of 29.3 shots per game at even strength.
The defense starts (and, well, ends) with Luongo, who posted nearly identical numbers as last season (2.35 GAA, .922 save percentage). Motivated to prove his move to Florida wasn’t some protracted “playing out the string,” Luongo has been stellar for the Cats. When he’s needed a break, Al Montoya was one of the most effective backups in the league.
Campbell and Ekblad are the two best possession defensemen for the Panthers. Dmitry Kulikov played smarter and steadier. Erik Gudbranson has matured into a shutdown defenseman. Rookie defenseman Mike Matheson, Jakub Kindl, acquired from the Red Wings, and Alex Petrovic (16:57 TOI) fill out the group. Steve Kampfer is doubtful for the series with a foot injury, and Willie Mitchell isn’t expected to play again.
Halak’s injury hands the reins to Thomas Greiss, who has 40 minutes of playoff experience. That said, he had a good regular season (2.36, .925) and the Islanders played well in front of him.
The Islanders’ blue line is getting healthy at the right time. Capuano may start with Leddy and Boychuk, although Leddy and Travis Hamonic – returning from injury, ready for a key shutdown role – could be paired together. If so, it might be Calvin de Haan and Boychuk as a pairing. Thomas Hickey, rookie Ryan Puklock, Brian Strait, Adam Pelech and veteran puck-mover/turnover waiting to happen Marek Zidlicky round out the group.
But one of the best facets of the Islanders’ defense is up front: Matt Martin, Casey Cizikas and Cal Clutterbuck, perhaps the best fourth line group in the NHL. They hit, score, cause chaos. Fun!
ADVANTAGE: Panthers, mostly because of the goaltending.
Special Teams
The Islanders have the 17th best power play in the NHL at 18.3 percent effectiveness. The Panthers are at No. 23 at 16.9 percent. Keep in mind the Islanders had the second-lowest power play opportunities in the NHL with 229, while the Panthers were fourth in that department at 278.
On the kill, the Panthers are 24th at 79.5 percent, while the Islanders are 84.5 percent at fourth in the League. That includes seven shorthanded goals. The Islanders were the more disciplined team in the regular season, No. 27 in times shorthanded.
ADVANTAGE: Islanders.
Coaching
Gerard Gallant’s job with the Panthers has been a little underrated, with Jagr and Luongo getting most of the notice. But as a guy who manages to get his vets and his rookies to play hard, and as someone that has manipulated the lineup to great results, he should be in line for the Jack Adams.
Capuano has gotten this Islanders team to the playoffs in multiple seasons, and his public challenges to players have served as solid motivation. But from a tactical standpoint, and as a guy who can sometimes pluck line and defensive combinations out of a hat, it still seems like he should have gotten more out of this group.
ADVANTAGE: Panthers
Five Key Questions
1. Is the goaltending disparity in this series basically the tipping point?
2. If the Panthers can find a way to neutralize Tavares, can the Islanders scare up more offense?
3. Jagr has one goal in his last 33 playoff games. That has to change, right?
4. What kind of impact will the back-to-back games on Thursday and Friday have on the series?
5. Is Kevin Spacey going to show up to one of these games?
Best Fantasy Options
Sasha Barkov, Panthers. This could be a breakout playoff season for Barkov, who ended the season with a nine-game point streak.
Kyle Okposo, Islanders. He had six points in his last five games and has a respectable seven points in 13 career playoff games.
Prediction
Panthers in six. It’s the usual suspects not coming through for the Islanders, while Florida proves its success isn’t built on a house of cards. The Panthers pay it forward to Round 2, while the Islanders have a time to kill some players and, perhaps, even a coach. Or just blame the ref.
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Greg Wyshynski is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Contact him at puckdaddyblog@yahoo.com or find him on Twitter. His book, TAKE YOUR EYE OFF THE PUCK, is available on Amazon and wherever books are sold.
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