College Hockey 101: Problems for NCAA vs. Major-Junior

Honestly, I don't think anyone knows. On paper, this team is a contender. On paper they've got one of the best defense corps in the country. (Goalie Bryan) Hogan was solid last year. (St. Louis Blues prospect Aaron) Palushaj was a big loss offensively, but it's not like Michigan hasn't dealt with those before. Two years ago, Michigan lost 50 percent of their goal-scoring and ended up in the Frozen Four. Last year they lost 46 percent of their scoring and ended up as a No. 1 seed. This year? They only lost 27.5 percent. Everything seems to be in place but it's just not clicking on the ice.

Hogan has been shaky at times and seems to be good for at least one soft goal a game. The defense has turned the puck over way too much, they've given up too many odd-man rushes, and they've taken some mind-numbingly stupid penalties. The forwards aren't putting the puck in the net. About the only thing that's really been working is the penalty kill. God knows they've had enough opportunities to get that right.

They used to be able to get it to guys like (Tyler) Kolarik, (Max) Pacioretty, heck even Milan Gajic. But there doesn't really seem to be a sniper. They're also really feeling the effects of not having a go-to scorer. (Louie) Caporusso put up a lot of goals last year, but he was fairly streaky. They don't have the consistent point producers that Kolarik and (Chris) Porter were two years ago.

The loss of Palushaj has probably had some effect on Caporusso, though I think it's probably more by way of not having a threat on that second line to take some of the heat off than it is Palushaj not setting him up. The two of them really didn't skate together all that often last year. They played together on the power play, and they were linemates for maybe eight games in the middle part of the season, but aside from that they didn't play together. Caporusso's linemate, David Wohlberg, has slumped just as badly. He was fantastic last year and hasn't done anything to this point.

While Louie had a fantastic season a year ago -- he could've made some noise in the Hobey balloting if the Wolverines hadn't flamed out in the first round -- he hasn't exactly been Mr. Consistency. He only scored 6 times in the final 21 games of last year and disappeared in a lot of big games. In four appearances against Miami, three against Notre Dame, and the loss to Air Force in the tournament, he had zero goals, three points, and 16 shots on goal. Michigan needs him to produce more than he has. But you can say that about a lot of guys.

Umm.... we're not very good?

I don't know. When you take dumb penalties, give up soft goals, and can't put the puck in the net, you're not going to win very many games. The Friday night game against Michigan State included a deflating goal, a long string of (deserved) penalties taking away any chance to get into a rhythm, and a fluky goal that was a back-breaker.

The game against Bowling Green was a classic case of, "You can't fix stupid." They take a dip-you-know-what penalty to go down two men, promptly give up two goals, give up another one a minute later while they're still shell-shocked, and a 2-1 lead becomes a 4-2 loss.

Dumb penalties, shaky goaltending, horrible power play.

One bright spot would be that Robbie Czarnik is showing some flashes of the player we expec... wait, he did what? Dang, this is just getting better and better.

Alright fine. Bright spots: The arena hasn't collapsed, nobody has gotten kicked off the team for stealing a teammate's credit card, Hogan hasn't hurt himself "moving a refrigerator", and none of our defensemen have gotten assaulted (on or off the ice).

Seriously though, the biggest bright spot for me is that Carl Hagelin still plays hockey for Michigan. Watching him play is one of the most underrated joys in sports. The kid is all effort, all the time. He's an incredible skater, he works his butt off, and it's fun to yell "Bork! Bork! Bork!" when he scores. Chris Brown has been as good as advertised and hasn't gone near Rihanna. Chris Summers didn't go pro. That's about all I've got in terms of bright spots.

Yeah, there's too much talent on this team to go 2008-09 Michigan State or anything like that. The question is can they get it turned around in time? I have my doubts about that. Last year, Miami squeaked into the tournament and they only had 12 losses at the start of the tournament. We've already got 7 and it's only a third of the way through the season. The margin for error is pretty much gone. It's hard to project who will be under consideration at the end of the season, but we're probably something like 0-5 against TUCs at the moment. If BU turns it around, it'd be 0-6. That's a big hole to dig out of.

I wouldn't be a bit surprised if they missed the tournament, as hard as it is to believe. I think they'll be fine before too much longer, but there have been a lot of Michigan teams on the tournament bubble who haven't started off this poorly or looked this bad in the process. They're fighting an uphill battle to get in. They need to find some consistency offensively, the goaltending needs to be better, the defense needs to be smarter....that's a lot of big problems to correct. I think they'll ultimately do it, but unless it gets fixed now it's going to be too little, too late.