Winners and losers: CFP committee gains some clarity after wild Week 10
The College Football Playoff committee gained some clarity after a wacky Week 10.
Let’s start in the SEC, shall we?
Not many thought that Arkansas would play a big factor in the crowded SEC West picture when the day began, but the Razorbacks’ improbable overtime win over Ole Miss raised the stakes of the Alabama-LSU nightcap even more. Because of its win over Alabama earlier in the year and a game with LSU yet to be played, Ole Miss still loomed in the West, but a wacky fourth-down conversion and gusty two-point play knocked the Rebels out of the race.
And then came No. 4 Alabama, who bullied its way past No. 2 LSU behind a huge effort from Derrick Henry (210 yards, three touchdowns). Remember those folks who thought Alabama should not have been included in the Top 4 of last week’s College Football Playoff rankings? You won’t hear from them next week. Alabama separated itself from the pack.
And while an LSU loss doesn’t completely put an end to its playoff hopes, it certainly can’t afford to lose another game down the stretch.
Meanwhile in the SEC East, Florida wrapped up a division title with a win over Vanderbilt, but it sure was ugly. The Gators found themselves at No. 10 in the first CFP rankings, but a 9-7 win over the lowly Commodores should cause a drop in those rankings and pretty much eliminate any chance they could sneak into the final four.
The Big Ten debuted with three teams in the Top 10, but that will undoubtedly drop to two after Michigan State blew a late two-score lead and lost to Nebraska. No. 7 Michigan State previously had narrow wins over mediocre Rutgers and Purdue teams. The only way Michigan State can possibly work its way back into contention (for a playoff spot and in the Big Ten East) is with a win over No. 3 Ohio State, which pulled out a 28-14 win over Minnesota to stay undefeated.
No. 9 Iowa also stayed undefeated by beating Indiana, 35-27, but still lack a signature win as it trudges through its mediocre Big Ten West slate.
In the ACC, No. 1 Clemson did nothing that warranted a drop from the top spot. The Tigers fell behind No. 16 Florida State at halftime, but stormed back for an emphatic 23-13 win behind 404 total yards from quarterback Deshaun Watson. The Tigers have a clear path to an undefeated season while two-loss FSU doesn’t have a prayer.
The Big 12 is where things get a bit messier. No. 6 Baylor, No. 8 TCU and No. 14 Oklahoma State all entered Week 10 without a loss. Baylor, playing its first game with freshman quarterback Jarrett Stidham, held off Kansas State to move to 8-0 on Thursday night. And Oklahoma State emerged victorious over TCU and did so in emphatic fashion, 49-29.
We’ll definitely see from movement from those teams when the new rankings drop on Tuesday, but it won’t seal any of their fates in the long term. TCU and Oklahoma State still both have to play Baylor and No. 15 Oklahoma. All four of those teams still have a chance in what will be a wild last three weeks of Big 12 play.
In the Pac-12, No. 11 Stanford and No. 12 Utah both improved to 8-1 with wins over Colorado and Washington, respectively. The two look primed to face off in the Pac-12 title game that could have major playoff implications. Looking ahead, Stanford, with its Nov. 28 matchup against No. 5 Notre Dame (which beat Pitt Saturday to improve to 8-1), would have a better playoff resume when all is said and done if it can win out.
And No. 13 Memphis’ 45-20 loss to Navy means the committee won’t have to worry about a Group of Five team sniffing the Top 4, Yeah, No. 25 Houston is still undefeated, but it has no chance to notch a signature win over a Power Five team like Memphis did with Ole Miss.
So what does it all mean?
Well for one, there are three teams that have clear paths to the final four: Clemson, Ohio State and Alabama. They control their own destinies. There are no guarantees in college football of course, but if those three win out, they will have a hard time not landing a spot in the playoff.
Having said that, college football is never predictable. There are a ton of scenarios to play out in the final month and all we can do is watch them unfold.
Here are the winners and losers from Week 10:
WINNERS
Iowa: Iowa's 35-27 win secured a 9-0 record and keeps the Hawkeyes among a slowly dwindling list of undefeated teams as we head into the 11th week of the season.
The Hawkeyes have not won nine games since 2009, which, incidentally, is the last time Iowa started a season 9-0. However, it went on to lose its next two games that year before rebounding to win its final two contests, including a 24-14 win against Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl.
Iowa has a one-game lead over Wisconsin in the Big Ten West Division and remaining games against Minnesota, Purdue and Nebraska, three teams all currently under .500 and are at the bottom of the West Division standings.
Dak Prescott, Mississippi State:
Prescott had a great night by all accounts against Missouri, completing 27 of 40 passes for 303 yards and four touchdowns. Pretty sharp. But it was another achievement in the game that will hold up much longer: He became the sixth player in SEC history responsible for 100 career touchdowns. He also tied a career-high with four completions on throws 20 yards or more downfield, and did it all against a Missouri team that’s been terrible most of the year but has managed to be pretty stout on defense.
Carl Nassib, Penn State: Nassib recorded a sack in the fourth quarter of Penn State’s 23-21 loss to Northwestern to give him 15 1/2 on the season, which set a single-season Nittany Lions record. It’s especially impressive when you consider that Nassib had never started a game at any level before this season, and now holds a school record and leads the country in sacks.
Kevin Hogan, Stanford: In recording a 42-10 win over Colorado, Hogan became Stanford’s all-time leader in wins at quarterback, going 32-9 to this point in his Cardinal career and snapping Andrew Luck’s record. Hogan completed 17 of 23 passes for 169 yards and two scores in the victory.
Kenneth Dixon, Louisiana Tech: Louisiana Tech destroyed North Texas 56-13 on Saturday afternoon and Kenneth Dixon was a big part of the Bulldogs' success. Dixon, a senior running back, rushed for 195 yards on 22 carries and scored a whopping six – yes, six – touchdowns. Dixon scored on runs of one, seven, one, 40, 14 and three yards to give him 17 on the season to go along with his 933 yards.
LOSERS
Texas A&M: So much for Texas A&M's rebirth with Kyler Murray at quarterback, eh? The Aggies were stifled 26-10 at home to Auburn Saturday night and will certainly drop out of the College Football Playoff rankings.
Murray was 13-of-23 passing for 105 yards and three interceptions. Texas A&M's only touchdown came courtesy of backup quarterback Jake Hubenak on a pass to Speedy Noil. Meanwhile, the Aggies helped make Auburn QB Jeremy Johnson look better than he has all season and running back Jovon Robinson ran for 159 yards and a score. With six wins, Texas A&M is guaranteed to be going to a bowl. But it may not be one much better than the SEC's lowest tier.
Duke's pass defense: Duke hadn't given up more than 272 yards passing in any game this season entering Saturday's game against North Carolina. The Tar Heels nearly doubled that 272, throwing for 537 yards. You knew it was going to be that kind of day when North Carolina scored a touchdown on an 89-yard flea flicker on its first play from scrimmage.
With the loss, Duke is pretty much out of the ACC Coastal Division race. At 6-3, this is far from a lost season for the Blue Devils, but losing to your biggest rival in such a dominating fashion has to sting a lot.
Idaho: You were so close to win No. 4 Idaho. So close. But you don't deserve to win when you give up 45 second-half points. The Vandals entered halftime with a 24-7 lead but ended up losing to South Alabama 52-45.
The rally was keyed by two second-half turnovers. An Idaho fumble was returned by South Alabama for a touchdown to make the game 24-21 in the third quarter and Vandals quarterback Matt Linehan was intercepted by Margo Reed in the fourth with the Vandals trailing 38-31. After the interception, USA drove 84 yards in seven plays for a two-score lead.
Kentucky: When will the Wildcats break out? The past two weeks were prime opportunities for Kentucky to show it's not a bottom-feeder team in the SEC East. The Wildcats have been outscored 79-24 in those two games.
Saturday was a 27-3 defeat to a Georgia team that had rumors swirling all week about its coaching staff and was coming off an abysmal performance against Florida. The Bulldogs pummeled Kentucky, running the ball 52 times for 300 yards while the Wildcats didn't even muster 200 yards of total offense. Can Kentucky get two wins from its remaining schedule against Vanderbilt, Charlotte and Louisville to make a bowl game?
Tulane: Tulane’s defense did not allow a single point Saturday against Connecticut, but the Green Wave still lost. Wait, what? Yup, the Tulsa offense could only muster three points after UConn’s Jamar Summers returned a Tanner Lee pass 67 yards for a touchdown in the first half. The Huskies won 7-3. Lee threw the ball 40 times in the game, but completed only 13 of those passes for 106 yards. Overall, the Green Wave, now 2-7 on the season, totaled only 140 yards of offense. Not good.
