Bowl Projections: Post-Week 13 Edition

Upset losses by Baylor and Oregon have changed the outlook for the Big 12 and PAC-12 champions, while Northern Illinois surges ahead of Fresno State to represent the non-BCS leagues. With rivalry weekend looming, this is only going to get weirder.

(A reminder we are presuming the favorites win the remainder of their games for these projections. That is 100 percent definitely not going to happen, but it's the methodology we're going to use.)

BCS Title Game (January 6): Alabama vs. Florida State
Same as it has been the last two weeks, with the Seminoles’ road to Pasadena (struggling Florida then likely Duke or Virginia Tech in the ACC title game) considerably easier than the Tide’s (at Auburn, then either Missouri or South Carolina in the SEC title game). With Baylor’s loss, Ohio State is now the next team in.

Rose Bowl (January 1): Ohio State vs. Stanford
The Buckeyes are projected to take one slot as Big Ten champion (you could also see Michigan State here should the Spartans pull the upset in the conference title game), and they’ll face the winner of Arizona State vs. Stanford, your PAC-12 championship game. Stanford won the first Cardinal/Sun Devil meeting, so we’ll project them here.

Orange Bowl (January 3): Clemson vs. Wisconsin

Sugar Bowl (January 2): Auburn vs. Central Florida
The Sugar Bowl gets to replace No. 1 Alabama first, and does so by taking Auburn, who will be 10-2 even with an Iron Bowl loss. The Orange Bowl then gets to replace Florida State, and does so by honoring its tie-in and taking Tajh Boyd, Sammy Watkins and Clemson, who should be an appealing choice at 10-2 even with a loss to South Carolina Saturday. The Orange then has the first at-large pick and takes Wisconsin, who – barring an upset home loss to Penn State – will have two losses (the weird game down at Arizona State and a competitive loss in Columbus).
(There are plenty of other options for the Orange here, including the Michigan State/Ohio State loser, Oregon or Baylor.) The Sugar then has to choose between American Conference champ Central Florida and MAC champ Northern Illinois. They go with the closer team geographically and bring George O’Leary’s Knights in to face the Tigers.

Fiesta Bowl (January 1): Oklahoma State vs. Northern Illinois
With their big win over Baylor, the Cowboys now control their own destiny in the Big 12. They’ll be favored through the remainder of the season (including Bedlam) and are now projected to take on Northern Illinois, who has leapt over Fresno State in the BCS computers and taken the spot reserved for a non-BCS conference champion who A) Finishes in the top 16 and B) Ahead of a BCS conference champ, which in this case would be Central Florida.

A few assorted notes:

SEC log jam: Trying to place LSU, Missouri, Texas A&M and South Carolina is really tricky and you could see them go in any order. It seems reasonable to believe that the Cotton Bowl would really love to have Johnny Manziel’s (probable) final collegiate game and that Missouri might get some shoddy treatment from SEC bowl executives not familiar with how well the Tigers travel. (This isn’t a knock on Gary Pinkel’s great team, but just an acknowledgement of how bowls don’t only focus on on-the-field success.) You could also see Georgia go as high as the Chick-Fil-A, but with Vanderbilt available for the hometown Music City Bowl, a Dawgs squad that’s suffered from some sort of voodoo hex all season could slip a bit.

Someone is getting left out: We now have more bowl eligible teams than bowl slots, with the possibility of more teams qualifying this weekend. Some teams in the MAC, Sun Belt and Conference USA are probably going to get left out, while you can expect Washington State, Oregon State and Pitt to find safe homes.

Oregon slipping?: More speculation than anything else, but with Oregon fans accustomed to BCS travel, there’s a chance the Alamo Bowl might question whether the Duck faithful will make their way down to San Antonio when they were assuming a BCS title game appearance back at the start of the month. It seems unlikely the Ducks will fall far, especially if there is a way to pair them against Baylor and light scoreboards aflame.

And here are the rest of the bowls. A * denotes a team filling in for another conference that couldn’t fulfill all of its postseason obligations:

Gildan New Mexico Bowl Albuquerque, N.M. – Dec. 21, Pac-12 No. 7 vs. MW No. 4 or 5
Arizona vs. Utah State

Las Vegas Bowl Las Vegas - Dec. 21, MW No. 1 vs. Pac-12 No. 5
Fresno State vs. UCLA

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Boise, Idaho – Dec. 21, MAC No. 3 vs. MW No. 6
Buffalo vs. Colorado State

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl New Orleans – Dec. 21, C-USA No. 6 vs. Sun Belt No. 1
Tulane vs. Louisiana-Lafayette

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl St Petersburg St Petersburg, Fla. – Dec. 23, C-USA No. 4 vs. AAC No. 6
Middle Tennessee vs. Western Kentucky*

Sheraton Hawai`i Bowl Honolulu – Dec. 24 C-USA No. 2 vs. MW No. 5
Marshall vs. UNLV

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl Detroit – Dec. 26 MAC No. 1 vs. Big Ten No. 8
Ball State vs. Pittsburgh

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl San Diego – Dec. 26, Army/MAC vs. MW No. 2
Toledo vs. San Diego State

Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman Annapolis, Md. – Dec. 27, C-USA No. 5 vs. ACC No. 8
North Texas vs. Maryland

Texas Bowl Houston – Dec. 27 Big Ten No. 6 vs. Big 12 No. 6
Michigan vs. Texas Tech

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl San Francisco – Dec. 27, BYU vs. Pac-12 No. 6
BYU vs. Washington

New Era Pinstripe Bowl New York – Dec. 28, AAC No. 4 vs. Big 12 No. 7
Rutgers vs. Notre Dame*

Belk Bowl Charlotte, N.C. – Dec. 28, AAC No. 3 vs. ACC No. 5
Cincinnati vs. Boston College

Russell Athletic Bowl Orlando, Fla. – Dec. 28, ACC No. 3 vs. AAC No. 2
Miami (FL) vs. Louisville

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Tempe, Ariz. – Dec. 28, Big Ten No. 4 of 5 vs. Big 12 No. 4
Iowa vs. Texas

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl Fort Worth, Texas – Dec. 30, MWC No. 3 vs. C-USA No.3/Navy
Boise State vs. Navy

Music City Bowl Nashville, Tenn. – Dec. 30, SEC No. 7 vs. ACC No. 6
Vanderbilt vs. North Carolina

Valero Alamo Bowl San Antonio – Dec. 30, Pac-12 No. 2 vs. Big 12 No. 3
Oregon vs. Oklahoma

Holiday Bowl San Diego – Dec. 30, Big 12 No. 5 vs. Pac-12 No. 3
Kansas State vs. USC

AdvoCare V100 Bowl Shreveport, La. – Dec. 31, ACC No. 7 vs. SEC No. 10
Georgia Tech vs. Oregon State*

Hyundai Sun Bowl El Paso, Texas – Dec. 31, ACC No. 4 vs. Pac-12 No. 4
Virginia Tech vs. Arizona State

AutoZone Liberty Bowl Memphis, Tenn. – Dec. 31, C-USA No. 1 or American vs. SEC No. 8 or 9
East Carolina vs. Georgia

Chick-fil-A Bowl Atlanta – Dec. 31, ACC No. 2 vs. SEC No. 5
Duke vs. Missouri

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl Jacksonville, Fla. – Jan. 1, Big Ten No. 4 or 5 vs. SEC No. 6
Minnesota vs. Ole Miss

Heart of Dallas Bowl Dallas – Jan. 1, Big Ten No. 7 vs C-USA
Texas State* vs. Rice

Capital One Bowl Orlando, Fla. – Jan. 1, Big Ten No. 2 vs. SEC No. 2
Michigan State vs. South Carolina

Outback Bowl Tampa, Fla. – Jan. 1, Big Ten No. 3 vs. SEC No. 3
Nebraska vs. LSU

AT&T Cotton Bowl Arlington, Texas – Jan. 3, Big 12 No. 2 vs. SEC No. 3 or 4
Baylor vs. Texas A&M

BBVA Compass Bowl Birmingham, Ala – Jan. 4, SEC No. 8 or 9 vs. American No. 5
Washington State* vs. Houston

GoDaddy Bowl Mobile, Ala. – Jan. 5, Sun Belt No. 2 vs. MAC No. 2
Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green