Why Kansas may have the toughest draw of any of the top seeds
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The night before Selection Sunday, Kansas coach Bill Self perused a list of conference tournament champs and tried to figure out which teams were potential opening-round opponents for the Jayhawks.
Never did he consider the possibility that New Mexico State would drop all the way to the No. 15 seed line.
"I had New Mexico State like as a 13," Self told reporters in Lawrence on Sunday night. "They weren't in my pod of teams, so I was surprised when we drew them."
New Mexico State is merely the first of many challenging opponents Kansas must overcome to return to the Final Four for the first time since 2012. The draw the Jayhawks received from the selection committee on Sunday is potentially the most difficult of any top team if the seeds hold to form.
It starts with New Mexico State, champions of the WAC and the second highest-rated No. 15 seed in the 14-year history of the KenPom rankings. The only No. 15 seed rated higher than the No. 88 Aggies was Lehigh in 2012, and that team toppled second-seeded Duke in the opening round.
New Mexico State (23-10) received a No. 15 seed because UTEP is the best team it beat this season, but the Aggies would probably have a more impressive resume had they not lost top guard Daniel Mullings and leading rebounder Tshilidzi Nephawe for 12 games apiece due to injuries. Even so, New Mexico State still was within a basket of upsetting Wyoming and Colorado State, played Baylor tough in Waco and cruised to a WAC title.
Potential round of 32 opponent WIchita State (28-4, 17-1) is the highest-rated No. 7 seed in the KenPom rankings and is underseeded by any metric. The Shockers would also be highly motivated facing a Kansas team that has refused to schedule them despite their recent rise from quality mid-major to national prominence.
Potential round of 16 opponent Notre Dame (29-5) is the No.8 team in the newest AP poll and the No. 10 team in the KenPom rankings. The Irish just defeated Duke and North Carolina on back-to-back days to win the ACC tournament championship.
And should Kansas get all the way to the Elite Eight, its likely opponent merely would be No. 1 overall seed Kentucky. The Jayhawks should remember the nation's lone unbeaten team as the juggernaut that defeated them by 32 points on a neutral floor back in November.
If this team gets a chance to play in the Elite Eight game, it's been a hell of a year," Self said. "Let's just call it like it is.
"I hope we have to talk about that next week but we need to win a four-team tournament this week and that will be the same goal as New Mexico State, Wichita State and Indiana. But it will certainly be some pretty good ball. There are some good teams playing in our pod."
Of course, there's no guarantee Kansas will have to face all these teams if the Jayhawks keep winning. It's possible 10th-seeded Indiana topples Wichita State in the first round or Notre Dame goes out early at the hands of Northeastern, Butler or Texas. And theoretically Kentucky could spare Kansas the indignity of a rematch by falling prior to the Elite Eight.
Regardless, the section of the draw Kansas is in is very tough, maybe the most formidable in the entire bracket. The Jayhawks likely won't get Cliff Alexander back this season, so they need forward Perry Ellis to be healthy and back at full strength and they cannot afford for point guard Frank Mason's recent slump to continue.
Self joked Sunday that Kansas has dodged some bullets during past NCAA tournaments when potentially tough opponents fell before facing the Jayhawks.
Either that will have to happen again, or Kansas will be facing a treacherous road to the Final Four.
Jeff Eisenberg breaks down the bracket on Yahoo Sports' new Grandstanding Podcast
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
