Who are Yahoo users' NCAA tourney upset picks and title favorites?
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One of the underrated keys to winning an office pool is knowing how your competitors will fill out their NCAA tournament brackets.
It allows you to choose when to side with the masses and when there may be value in a contrarian selection.
Here's an early look at who Yahoo users like to pull early upsets, to reach the Final Four and to win the national championship in this year's Yahoo Sports Tourney Pick'Em. And just in case you want the thoughts of a college basketball writer who embarrassingly finished in the bottom half of his office pool the last two years, I also offered my thoughts on where I agree and disagree with popular opinion.
Most popular round-of-64 upset pick by a double-digit seed: No. 10 Ohio State over No. 7 VCU (58.9 percent)
My take: Ohio State dropped to a No. 10 seed because it's won surprisingly few meaningful games this season, but it's still a very capable team that stars a future NBA lottery pick in D'Angelo Russell. The Buckeyes also do not turn the ball over very much, which is critical against a full-court pressing team like VCU.
Most popular 11-6 round-of-64 upset pick: Texas over Butler (36.7 percent)
My take: In all honesty, I'm surprised more Yahoo users aren't taking Texas. Las Vegas oddsmakers favor the Longhorns to win this game despite being the lower seed. Butler is an elite defensive rebounding team that scores most of its points in the paint. Texas excels at defending the paint, but forces very few turnovers and gets nothing easy in transition. In other words, this is likely to be low scoring and very close.
Most popular 12-5 round-of-64 upset pick: Buffalo over West Virginia (27.5 percent)
My take: To beat West Virginia this season, you have to protect the ball, keep the Mountaineers off the offensive glass and limit them to one shot against a set defense. Buffalo is a quality team that is playing its best basketball entering the NCAA tournament, but I'm not sure the Bulls can do either of those things. Rebounding, in particular, could tell the story of this game.
Most popular 13-4 round-of-64 upset pick: Eastern Washington over Georgetown (15.1 percent)
My take: Between Georgetown's history of early-round letdowns and Eastern Washington's ability to knock down 3-pointers in bunches, this feels like a potential upset. If the Eagles can take a lead, put some game pressure on the Hoyas and get the Portland crowd on their side, look out. Eastern Washington boasts the nation's leading scorer Tyler Harvey and has already upset Indiana this season.
Double-digit seed most likely to reach the Sweet 16: No. 12 Stephen F. Austin (12.1 percent)
My take: This reflects both respect for Stephen F. Austin and the draw the Lumberjacks got. The Southland Conference champions face a Utah team that faded late in the regular season and then get either potential upset victim Georgetown or 13th-seeded Eastern Washington. One concern about this pick: The teams that have given Utah problems are big, athletic teams that have made it difficult for the Utes to run offense and have hurt them on the glass. That's not Stephen F. Austin, which relies on efficient, methodical offense and pressure defense.
No. 1 seed most likely to lose before the Final Four: Villanova
My take: Villanova was still the sixth most popular Final Four pick with 30 percent of Yahoo users, but that put the Wildcats well back of Kentucky and Duke and just behind Wisconsin, Arizona and Virginia. That's reasonable given Villanova's sketchy recent postseason history and an obstacle-laden draw that includes dangerous Nos. 8-9 seeds NC State and LSU and potentially either Louisville or Northern Iowa in the Sweet 16.
Most popular Final Four picks: Kentucky (85.1 percent), Duke (54.0 percent), Wisconsin (43.8 percent), Virginia (34.9 percent)
My take: Three No. 1 seeds and a No. 2 seed reflects that this has the potential to be a chalk-heavy year. Teams seeded third or worse that Yahoo users like to go to the Final Four? Iowa State in the South (15 percent), Louisville in the East (12.1 percent), North Carolina in the West (8.2 percent) and Notre Dame in the Midwest (6.2 percent).
Five most popular national champions: Kentucky (59.7 percent), Wisconsin (9.7 percent), Duke (7.5 percent), Arizona (5.9 percent), Villanova (2.9 percent)
My take: How big a favorite is Kentucky compared to previous No. 1 overall seeds? Florida was the choice of just 35.7 percent of Yahoo users last March. This group of five looks reasonable, but a dark horse worth considering? Iowa State. The high-scoring Cyclones are as lethal as anyone in the country offensively and they are on the other side of the bracket from Kentucky, meaning they could benefit if someone else ousts the Wildcats earlier in the tournament.
Gonzaga will: lose in the round of 64 (5.0 percent), lose during the first weekend (15 percent), lose without reaching the Final Four (77.7 percent), win the national championship (2.1 percent)
My take: The 5.0 percent of you who think Gonzaga will lose to North Dakota State are ignoring recent history. While the Zags have struggled to survive the opening weekend, they're one of two programs nationally to advance to the round of 32 each of the past six years. Furthermore, this may be the best of all those Gonzaga teams considering the Zags' size, depth and experience. Taking a risk is one thing but this is bracket suicide.
Kentucky will: lose in the round of 64 (0.7 percent), lose during the first weekend (2.5 percent), lose before the Final Four (14.9 percent), win the national championship (59.7 percent)
My take: Whichever folks think Kentucky will become the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 must either really hate the Wildcats or really hate winning money from their friends. I also wonder if there's been any team given an 85.1 percent chance to reach the Final Four before? It is a very favorable bracket for Kentucky, but Notre Dame could pose some matchup problems if it meets the Wildcats in an Elite Eight game.
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Jeff Eisenberg is the editor of The Dagger on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at daggerblog@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter!
