Brad vs. the Book: Big Blue could equal big dollars at A&M
Slaying the sportsbook is a monstrous task. Some days bettors take up residence in a penthouse suite. Other times, they curl up in the nearest ditch, shirtless and toothless. In an attempt to avoid complete destitution, I will post my picks, whether profitable or penniless, through the NCAA tourney. Check out Saturday's selections below:
Kentucky (20-6, 12-14 ATS) at Texas A&M (19-7, 9-10) – Though Kentucky is a landlocked state, a basketball tidal wave has formed in Lexington. Wiping out Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee by an average margin of 22.5 points per game, Big Blue is cresting at the right time. Over that stretch, it minimized turnovers, clamped down defensively and peaked offensively. Jamaal Murray and Tyler Ulis especially elevated their games. The former has morphed into a prolific scoring machine netting at least 24 points in five consecutive games. Ulis, meanwhile, has developed into one of the college game's premier dime-droppers averaging 10 assists per game this month.
When performing at its best, A&M is a relentless, trapping squad that coaxes numerous turnovers. On the year, opponents are giving it up on 22.4 percent of their possessions. It also shares the sugar well ranking No. 6 in the country in assists to field-goals made.
What this contest boils down to is what version of the Aggies trots out of the tunnel. If the loose-defending club that dropped four straight earlier in February makes a cameo, TAMU could receive the 'South Carolina' treatment. However, if the gritty, unyielding team that raced out to a 7-0 SEC record storms the court, it will temporarily halt Kentucky's meteoric rise. Given Ulis and Murray's stellar play and the 'Cats' prowess on the offensive glass, the former seems most likely.
Prediction: Kentucky 78 (-1) Texas A&M 70
Miami (FL) (21-4, 15-9 ATS) at North Carolina (21-5, 9-16)
– Without much fanfare, the 'Canes are knocking at the door of a possible No. 1 seed and their third conference title since 2000. Polished on both ends, they're one of four teams nationally that ranks inside the top-25 in offensive and defensive efficiency. Whether on South Beach, away or in neutral settings, they've levied dizzying blows. That is, when the good Angel Rodriguez shows up.
North Carolina, still shellshocked after giving away a win against arch-rival Duke earlier in the week, needs to quickly regain its composure. Three defeats in their past five have the Heels locked with Miami atop the ACC standings. Their persistence getting to the basket and hasn't subsided, but horrific dry spells from Joel Berry and Marcus Paige from long range has made them one-dimensional.
If 'Canes long-drink Tonye Jekiri and Kamari Murphy can neutralize Brice Johnson in the paint and force UNC into low-percentage jump shots, springing an upset is certainly plausible. But potentially without key guard Ja'Quan Newton, I'm projecting Carolina by only a nose. Count that Miami money.
Prediction: North Carolina 76 Miami (+6.5) 74
Baylor (19-7, 7-12 ATS) at Texas (17-9, 13-12) – In the past several iterations of this column, endless poetry has been spewed about the Longhorns. Speaking frankly, Shaka Smart is dreamy. His motivational ploys, boundless energy and tactical moves are Izzo-like. He's done a remarkable job squeezing wins out of a team many believed was tourney-fringy at best preseason. Due in large part to the stellar backcourt execution of Isaiah Taylor and Javan Felix along with Prince Ibeh's disruptive length down low, the 'Horns are very much in the Big 12 conference race.
Knocking off Iowa St. in Waco earlier this week, the Bears applied a much-needed tourniquet. Their suddenly leaky defense and offensive inadequacies were responsible for their 2-3 February record. Turnover spells and droughts specifically buried them. Still, Baylor's glass cleaners, Rico Gathers and Jonathan Motley, are a handful for opponents without an interior neutralizer. Texas, unfortunately, isn't that team.
The combination of Ibeh's strong play around the basket and the 'Horns' widespread scoring led to the Bears' demise in the first meeting. Part II should yield a similar result. Lay the chalk.
Prediction: Texas 69 (-5) Baylor 62
Other Leans: Purdue (+4), Duke (+7), West Virginia (-3.5), South Carolina (-2.5), Villanova (-10.5), Kansas St. (+5), Oregon St. (+12)
Parlay Play: Duke (+7), Villanova (-10.5), Texas (-5)
Year to date: 100-87-4
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