Thanks to years of research, countless probability models and a complex set of algorithms, I have developed a system that can predict the winner of an MMA bout with a stunning fifteen-percent level of accuracy. I know, I know, it's a breakthrough that will most certainly make me rich. But until the oddsmakers in Las Vegas make me an offer that I find acceptable, you all get to benefit from this nigh-infallible prognosticative method. First up on the fortune telling schedule: the UFC on FOX 4 undercard!
- Cole Miller vs. Nam Phan — American Top Team featherweight mean-mugger Miller had a rough time against "The Ultimate Fighter — Season 14" exponent Steven Siler back in March, but he's still a skilled and dangerous jiu-jitsu specialist capable of using his lanky limbs to tie people in knots. TUF 12 veteran Phan, on the other hand, may be a jiu-jitsu black belt, but as we saw in his bout against Jimy Hettes at UFC 141, the Vietnamese warrior is very open to getting dominated on the ground. The only gray area here is whether or not Miller can get Phan down. If he can, expect Phan to survive to the final bell but lose via clear-cut decision.
- Phil Davis vs. Wagner Prado —Light-heavyweight Davis is to wrestling what Steven Seagal is to yellow-tinted sunglasses — which is to say, Davis is a bad, bad dude who can control almost anyone. Prado is making his Octagon debut at UFC on FOX 4, and though he trains with the Nogueira brothers and is supposedly some kind of ace striker, he's going to get handled by the Division I All-American wrestler in a big way. Takedowns, pins, tech falls — Davis is going to do it all, and earn the unanimous decision win in the process.
- Josh Grispi vs. Rani Yahya — Two years ago, New Englander Grispi was one of the most promising up-and-coming featherweights in the WEC, and it seemed as if he was destined to battle champ Jose Aldo for the UFC's 145-pound division belt. But the hype train got derailed in a big way — first by Louisiana-based fighter Dustin Poirier's knuckle sandwiches at UFC 125, then by George Roop's body-blow KO at the TUF 13 Finale. Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt and 2007 grappling champ Yahya isn't that dangerous on the feet, just on the ground, so Grispi just might have the skills to get the "W". This one is also going to decision, with Grispi taking it by virtue of being on top more than being on the bottom.
- Phil De Fries vs. Oli Thompson — In his UFC debut back at UFC on Fuel TV: "Sanchez vs. Ellenberger", Brit heavyweight De Fries got chewed up and spit out in a mere 43 seconds against Stipe Miocic. However,Brit strongman Thompson faired only slightly better against Shawn Jordan at UFC on FX: "Alves vs. Kampmann", getting TKO'd in the second round, so the question here is who can pull it together more effectively for their second UFC appearance. My algorithms are telling me it's going to be De Fries via TKO, but really, it's six of one and half a dozen of the other.
- Manny Gamburyan vs. Michihiro Omigawa — Omigawa hails from Japan, sports a pretty decent judo background, and racked up some decent wins fighting in organizations like DEEP and Sengoku. Unfortunately, in six UFC appearances he has won a grand total of once. Yes, he's tough as nails and extremely hard to finish, but he lacks that special quality (which we'll simply call "ability to win"). Armenian fireplug Gamburyan is cut from a similar cloth; after taking second place in the fifth season of The Ultimate Fighter, he's fought in the UFC seven times and tasted victory twice. He, too, is tough and lacks ability to win, but he's also been plagued by injuries. For that, I see Omigawa winning either by decision or by Gamburyan's limbs inadvertently falling off and him not being able to continue.
- John Moraga vs. Ulysses Gomez — Hey, it's two Octagon newcomers, making their UFC debut in a bout that will be broadcast on either Facebook, MySpace, Friendster or maybe even LinkedIn. Who knows. Either way, both men have worked their way up the regional circuits — Moraga through Arizona's Rage in the Cage and Gomez through California's Tachi Palace Fights. Because Octagon jitters are going to be hanging over these men like an oppressive fog of lethargy, my algorithms are literally shrugging at me. I guess I'll pick Gomez, but that's solely because I think I'd have more fun checking out a TPF show than a RITC show. Arizona's got a problem with ants, you know. They're everywhere.
Who you trying to get crazy with, ese? Don't you know I'm loco?