Week 15 Over/Under: Should you buy into the Manziel mania?
Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don't, and you're painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here's our view on 10 intriguing over/unders for Week 15.
Break out the beer bongs. Predict Johnny Manziel's line against the Bengals (cmp-atts, pass yards, pass TDs, rush yards, rush TDs, turnovers).
Dalton – 19-34, 225 passing yards, 1 pass TD (to Gordon), 35 rushing yards and 1 turnover.
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Scott – Rabbit, run. That provides floor and upside all at once. 18-for-33, 236 yards, 1 TD pass, 2 turnovers, 8-47 on the ground (and a second touchdown).
Brad – 17-30, 209 pass yards, 1 pass TD (to Cameron), 64 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 2 turnovers
Brandon – 17-for-28, 192 pass yards, 1 pass TD, 59 rush yards, 1 rush TD, 1 INT, 1 Fumble Lost
Andy – 19-for-28, 233 pass, TD (Gordon), INT, 32 rush, fumble. (Nailed it. Feel good about that projection.)
Buzzy wire add Marquess Wilson, filling the enormous shoes of Brandon Marshall, receptions against the Saints Monday night 4.5.
Andy – OVER. Let's remember, the Bears only throw to four targets. Wilson is now one of those privileged four. He has WR3-ish appeal. Put me down for 6 catches and 88 yards.
Brandon – OVER. This game is going to offer very little defensive resistence on either side. Wilson, in a pass happy offense that is facing the seventh-most generous defense to opposing fantasy wideouts, should be able to reach at least five receptions given the friendly set-up.
Dalton – OVER. New Orleans has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing WRs, and this game’s over/under is 54.5 points. Cutler relies heavily upon his top-two wide receivers, so I expect Wilson to be a major part of this week’s game plan.
[Week 15 rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Receiver | Tight End | Kicker | DST]
Chris Johnson in a I'm-Gonna-Get-You-Sucka contest against former employer Tennessee 84.5 rushing yards
Brandon – OVER. CJ has averaged 16.5 carries in his past two games, and five of the past six rushers to carry the ball at least that many times against the Titans have gone (well) over this mark. Despite splitting the workload with Chris Ivory, I think Johnson gets this number as I expect the Jets to go even more run heavy than usual given the softness of Tennessee's ground defense.
Dalton – UNDER. It’s hard not to love the matchup (the Titans have yielded the third most fantasy points to opposing RBs), but Johnson has beaten this mark once this season (while averaging 42.9 rushing yards per game). I’d prefer to play the superior Chris Ivory.
Brad – OVER. He and Ivory are strong plays, but I like the motivational factor here for the former rush king. Tennessee is a parted sea defensively, allowing the second-most fantasy points to RBs. CJ2K makes a cameo and tallies at least 90 yards and a score.
A.J. Green, historically shut down by Cleveland's Joe Haden, receiving yards against the Browns 69.5.
Dalton – OVER. His touchdown production has been down some this year but despite being banged up, Green is averaging a career-high 91.0 yards per game. The Browns have allowed just 6.4 YPA on the year, but Pro Football Focus has graded Joe Haden as the No. 20 best corner in coverage this season, so while good, he’s not exactly shutdown. No way am I sitting Green this week.
Andy – OVER. Haden is a great, great player. But he's not the sort of corner who turns every opposing receiver into an auto-sit. I wouldn't sit Green this week unless my options were stellar.
Scott – OVER for me. Offenses still have a bigger say in the controlling of outcomes. I don't want anyone to sit Green, either.
Mark Sanchez, shades of the turnover-prone Butt Fumbler in his last start, fantasy points scored in a traditional setting (1 pt/20 yds passing, 4 pts/pass TD) against the 'Boys 19.9.
Andy – Hmm. Good number. I'll take the UNDER, but not by much. I can see a 300-ish, 2-TD game, but I think negative plays will drag him just below 20, barely.
Scott – OVER. I'm not going to overreact to the Seattle game (part of it was game flow, much of it was the Seattle defense). Sanchez would have posted a huge game on Turkey Day has the Dallas offense fought back a little bit. Sunday night, I think (most) everyone will be happy.
Dalton – OVER. The Cowboys are going to score more points than they did the last time these two teams met on Thanksgiving, which will result in Sanchez having to throw more. The O/U in this game is 56 points, which is as high as you’ll ever see in an NFL game. Sanchez should easily surpass 20 points.
Latavius Murray, who pummeled the Chiefs the last time they met in Week 12, combined yards in the rematch at Arrowhead 99.5.
Brad – OVER. He's a certifiable workhorse after last week's rigorous load. KC is doughboy-soft against the run surrendering 5.08 yards per carry to RBs. On another 20-plus touches he easily surpasses 100 combined yards. The Raiders may have discovered their RB starter for next year and beyond.
Andy – OVER. Murray saw 25 touches last week, a terrific sign for his rest-of-season value. With a similar workload this week, he'll have a shot at 120-plus yards. I'm plenty interested .
Brandon – OVER. Murray carried the ball 23 times against the Niners last week. If he gets that kind of workload this week (and no reason to think he won't), he should fly by this number, one that he needed just four carries to surpass in his last meeting with a Chiefs defense allowing more than 5.0 yards per carry to opposing backs.
Julius Thomas, who is expected to be in uniform for the first time in weeks, touchdowns scored in San Diego .5.
Brandon – OVER. Orange Julius has scored in 17 of 24 regular season games over the past two seasons. If he's active, you take the odds that he'll score every time.
Scott – A reflexive UNDER, because I try to be careful with players who are returning off extended absences. I'd rather play Larry Donnell, for one example.
Brad – UNDER. Thomas was active last week but didn't see a single snap. Rumors around the Denver area have begun to swirl questioning his motivation and whether or not the team is interested in bringing him back next season. The last time he faced San Diego he failed to find the end zone and grabbed just two passes for 23 yards. Given the accumulated rust, a similar output should be expected.
With Derek Anderson at the helm, Jonathan Stewart combined yards against visiting Tampa 94.5.
Dalton – UNDER. Tampa Bay has allowed just 3.9 YPC this season, and while Stewart has been highly productive over his past two games, he hadn’t reached 95 total yards since 2011 before then.
Brad – UNDER ... by a hair. Stewart was lights out last week in 'Nawlins rolling up 155 yards on 20 carries. He looked healthy, fresh and fast. However, with DeAngelo Williams back in the mix and facing an improved Bucs run D, I predict he falls just short of the proposed number, but also scores a TD.
Scott – UNDER. The Buccaneers defense is one of the best-kept secrets in the league, it's been credible for a while now. I still trust Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin despite the presence of Anderson - they all did fine against Tampa in Week 1 - but I have old scars from Stewart that haven't completely healed yet. He's a borderline starter for me, not an automatic guy.
Kenny Stills, a monumental disappointment last week against the Panthers, receiving yards this week in Chicago 79.5.
Brad – OVER. The Saint was an enormous letdown last week in a generous matchup versus Carolina. However, blessed with an even friendlier opponent, he should rebound in a major way. In total 11 receivers have topped the proposed number against Chicago this season. In a game with shootout appeal (54 over/under), he adds his name to the list.
Dalton – UNDER. He’s averaging just 59.5 yards per game this season. Stills is probably due for a big catch, and his matchup with Chicago is favorable, but you're banking on one big play for him to reach this.
Brandon – UNDER. After a 23-yard effort last week, I have to temper my enthusiasm despite the matchup with a Bears secondary allowing the eighth-most fantasy PPG to opposing receivers. I'm Stills comes in just shy of this number, but I think that he'll find the end zone, so I'm not going to hesitate employing him on Monday night.
Top-Five Buys. Your best bets (versus the spread or over/unders) for Week 15.
Brandon – 1) UNDER 45 Bal/Jac 2) OVER 49.5 Ind/Hou 3) UNDER 50 Buf/GB 4) OVER 47 NYG/Was 5) ATL (even) vs. Pit
Dalton – 1) KC (-10) vs. Oak 2) NE (-7.5) vs. Mia 3) Sea (-10) vs SF 4) BUF (+5) vs. GB 5) DAL (+3.5) at Phi
Scott – 1) NE -7.5, 2) CLE -1; 3) DAL +3; 4) MIN +7.5; 5) NO-CHI under 54 (for the love of all things holy).
Brad – 1) NYJ (-2) at Ten, 2) OVER 54 NO/Chi, 3) Phi (-3) vs. Dal, 4) OVER 49 Hou/Ind, 5) SD (+4) vs. Den
Andy – 1) ATL +2 vs. PIT, 2) WAS +6.5 at NYG, 3) CAR -3 vs. TB, 4) HOU +7 at IND, 5) PHI -3 vs. DAL
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