Week 14 Fantasy Power Rankings: Eyes on Bengals-Steelers clash

Let’s put a fantasy spin on the this week’s action by ranking the games in expected order of point-producing relevance using the over/under totals from Las Vegas, specifically as listed at VegasInsider.com.

Note: Dollar values in parentheses denote a player's current week price in the Yahoo Daily Fantasy game. It is displayed for point of reference.

The Trinity

1. Saints at Bucs, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 50.5: Drew Brees ($36) on the road again against a hot team that’s playing better defensively and is actually No. 1 in yards allowed per play and above average in yards per pass play, too. So this is not a good matchup. But a theme here all year is that you should not run away or toward matchups based on the opponent of your fantasy player because we’re usually talking about a 5 percent expected boost in points from average to best or worst. There is a bigger effect for better players against bad defenses but we are playing the better players anyway. The Saints are an outlier defense on the bad side so beyond making this a tiebreaker for Jameis Winston ($35) and other Bucs, you probably could justify something greater, like a tier bump. But this is the very rare exception to the rule.

[Yahoo Daily Fantasy: $10 could win you $30K in our $300K contest for Week 14]

2. Steelers at Bengals, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 49.5: I expect the under in division games. Last time they played, Cincy won 16-10, though that was the first game back for Ben Roethlisberger ($34). Pittsburgh scored 30 vs. the Browns a couple of weeks ago. Last year, the Steelers game in the division averaged just over 50 points as a total. So my suspicion in not confirmed at least in recent Pittsburgh history. Martavis Bryant ($27) is a fascinating player who stretches for the football for a big man better than any receiver I can remember since Randy Moss. You have to worry about DeAngelo Williams ($28) hitting a wall at age 32 and with already as many 20+ carry games this year (four) as he had between 2009 and 2014. I do not trust Jeremy Hill ($16) if this game turns into a shootout, which has more of a Gio Bernard ($17) feel to it. 

3. Bills at Eagles, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 47: How important is volume in a fantasy quarterback? Tyrod Taylor ($33) is averaging 27 passes per game. I know, he runs, too. So let’s give him his six rushes per game, too. That’s 33 touches. That’s not enough. Buffalo is 25th in plays from scrimmage and goes three-and-out way too much (league-worst 27.7 percent of drives). But Taylor has scored points, I know. I still firmly believe that volume is more predictive than points scored. Though it’s only fair that I note that Taylor’s efficiency has been good. But bottom line, he’s just too volatile for a fantasy playoff game. I’d play a higher floor guy on waiver wires in many leagues over him: Ryan Fitzpatrick ($31). I don’t try to win games with my quarterback as I try not to lose them there.

Middle ground

4. Falcons at Panthers, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 46.5: Matt Ryan ($28) has been terrible and is destroying the viability of his teammates and wrecking Atlanta’s playoff chances. He’s also diminishing the resume of offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, who seemed set for a head-coaching job when the Falcons were rolling in September. Cancel all those good feelings last week about the increased snaps of Devin Funchess ($11), who was supplanted on most plays by the returning Corey Brown ($10). 

5. Giants at Dolphins, Monday, 8:30, O/U 46.5: The Giants pass defense is not good but they do have their starting corners back. No one is a match for Odell Beckham Jr. ($35) but he’s really hurt by the lack of any other viable weapons in the passing game and that includes RB Shane Vereen ($10), who has not made many plays. 

6. Chargers at Chiefs, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 45: Alex Smith ($31) has not thrown an interception in a long time (305 passes) but he’s actually everything that’s wrong with football. His average pass length is a league-low 6.32. Philip Rivers ($33) is next at 6.72. This is the Long Handoff Bowl. Snore. The air yards per throw is at an all-time low. The league throws just 12 percent of passes over 20 yards. These QBs are about 8 percent. So if they throw 80 passes, expect to see six downfield attempts. What a joke. Teams live in such fear of interceptions and they are not that big a deal, especially on third down on longer passes. Teams average 12 yards per attempt on these passes, so they are worth the risk.

7. Patriots at Texans, Sunday, 8:30, O/U 45: The Texans lead the league in plays from scrimmage. The Patriots gave up a lot of points but it was three return touchdowns mainly and that really gums up the works. Will Rob Gronkowski ($24) play? Why is he wearing a knee brace if the injury was a knee bruise? I have no answers. Stay tuned. LeGarrette Blount ($19) is not good. Please get him out of your lineups. James White ($10) is getting the vast majority of the snaps.

The Points Challenged

8. Raiders at Broncos, Sunday, 4:05, O/U 43.5: Denver’s defense makes it non-optimal to play Raiders. Denver’s D is not quite elite but certainly very good. I guess you can argue it’s a 10 percent swing from facing a weaker D to a very good one. I want to move these matchup numbers up because it shocks me that the effect is so low. Denver was scoring an estimated 19 points per game on offense with decrepit Peyton Manning and are all the way up to 19.3 with savior Brock Osweiler ($30), who is in his fourth season. 

9. Redskins at Bears, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 43.5: These teams are coming off of total stinkers and are never projectable when it comes to scoring. Saying this game will be played in the low teens or mid-20s would not surprise me. There is high variance here. Weather needs to be monitored. But remember to react only to wind and only at extreme levels. Here is a handy chart I put together at Wall Street Journal sports with the help of Physics of Football author and physicist Timothy Gay.

10. Titans at Jets, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 43: Ryan Fitzpatrick and his wideouts should have nice days against a Titans pass defense that is getting burned in yards per attempt and TD percentage. Round Fitzpatrick ($31) up from his 2.2 passing plus rushing TDs per game to 3.0. 

11. Cowboys at Packers, Sunday, 4:25, O/U 42.5: I have no answers for what is wrong with Aaron Rodgers ($35), who does not look like the greatest of all time this year. Maybe he’s battling some injuries and will soar to expected heights any week. You have to keep playing him, of course. 

12. 49ers at Browns, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 41: I’d rather watch paint dry.

13. Lions at Rams, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 41: The Rams have packed it in. What is wrong with Todd Gurley ($32)? Well, you need a quarterback at least capable of sustaining drives. The Rams are last in the league in snaps by a lot (172 behind league-leader Houston, which works out to about 14 plays per game and also costs prized red-zone opportunities).

14. Seahawks at Ravens, Sunday, 1:00, O/U OFF: We don’t know if Matt Schaub ($22) will play. This is a battle of two top fantasy playoff running backs, Thomas Rawls ($26) and Buck Allen ($17), who were nowhere men in August and thus further proof that you should zeroRB your draft until about round four, at least. Here’s more from me on this.

15. Colts at Jaguars, Sunday, 1:00, O/U OFF: Will Andrew Luck ($32) play? It’s reportedly very unlikely. Is Blake Bortles ($34) good? He seems to be a product of garbage time, which is rare. And I stipulate that prevent defenses generally do work. However, nine touchdowns in 99 attempts down multiple scores. And 12 touchdowns in the fourth quarter for a team that’s usually out of the game by then.