Throwing Darts, Week 11: Don't fear the new quarterback

Last week’s bagel stung, and not just for the obvious reason. My baseline mindset for NFL handicapping is to take the points whenever in doubt, and the Week 10 results were as dog-driven as any I can remember. And yet, the picks were lousy, and I can’t even blame a bad beat — they were beat-the-traffic specials, results decided early.

At least the ATS seasonal record is still respectable. Let’s trudge onward. All games use the spread from Yahoo Pro Football Pick’Em. Share your five best picks in the comments.

-- Broncos +1 at Bears: While we have no idea who Brock Osweiler will be, can he be any worse than the 2015 version of Peyton Manning? I dare him to be that lousy. Time to buy low on Denver and sell a little high on Chicago.

-- Eagles -6 versus Bucs: With all the frustration over the Philly offense, you might miss what the defense is doing (second in DVOA; third against pass, eighth against rush). I don’t trust Jameis Winston on the road against this type of matchup, and Mark Sanchez, like Osweiler above, really can’t be much worse than the quarterback he’s replacing.

-- Rams +1.5 at Ravens: Perhaps last week’s St. Louis result was more a nod to the plucky Bears than it was a flag on the Rams. I expect St. Louis to have a field day with Baltimore’s patchwork line, and again I’m backing a new-quarterback team on the expectation that he can’t be any worse than the man he replaced (hello Keenum, goodbye Foles).

-- Packers +1 at Vikings: I’d hate to disappoint all of Minnesota and start backing your team now. You want me on the other side. Keep the tweets coming.

-- Seahawks -13 versus 49ers: Looking at the Seahawks to be in a nasty mood after last week’s giveaway against the Cardinals. The Seattle offense can’t be trusted to put up a big number on its own, but the defense, opponent and home field should get us over the number. You’re not afraid of Blaine Gabbert, right?

Last Week: 0-5

Season: 28-21-1

Fantasy Versus Reality

This year, two of my esteemed Yahoo colleagues are sharing their own selections, using theYahoo Pick’em spread. Play along in the comments. (We did not use the Jets-Texans game, with no line.)

Frank Schwab (2-3 last week, 25-24-1 season)

Denver +1

Miami E

Tampa Bay +6

Arizona -4

New England -7

Eric Edholm (1-4 last week, 33-16-1 remarkable season)

Seattle -13

Kansas City -3

Tampa Bay +6

Arizona -4

Buffalo +7