MLB Stock Watch: Jackie Bradley rising, Yasiel Puig falling
STOCK UP
Jackie Bradley Jr.: Over the last nine games, he’s hit .514 with five homers, nine runs scored and 17 RBI, as there isn’t a hotter hitter in all of baseball. Bradley’s high strikeout rate suggests his batting average is eventually going to come crashing down, but he hit 10 home runs in just 221 at bats last season, so the power seems real. He’s 26 years old so he’s just now entering his prime, and Bradley’s strong defense should keep him in the lineup even during the inevitable slump. He recently moved to No. 2 in Boston’s lineup, which is especially beneficial considering the team has scored the most runs in MLB. Bradley could go down as the best waiver wire add in 2016.
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Jeff Samardzija: After giving up the most earned runs among all starters in baseball last season, many expected a bounce back in 2016, and so far it couldn’t have gone better. Moving from a hitter’s park in the American League to a pitcher’s venue in the N.L. West, Samardzija has benefitted greatly, as he currently sports a 2.88 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP with a 47:13 K:BB ratio over 56.1 innings. His four-seam fastball velocity is a bit down (albeit still strong), but he’s throwing his cutter more than ever, and the results have been a career-high groundball rate (1.77 GB/FB). It helps that the Giants field a plus defensive infield, and Samardzija also owns a healthy 10.1 SwStr%. He sure looks like a top-25 fantasy starter moving forward.
Marcell Ozuna: He entered April 30 with a .654 OPS and has raised that mark 198 points in a dozen games since, a span in which he’s clubbed four homers. After posting a 1.56 GB/FB ratio last year, he’s recorded a 1.08 mark in 2016, and more fly balls should continue to result in more home runs. Ozuna is still just 25 years old, so plenty of potential remains. And for those who play DFS take note - he’s destroying left-handers this season (.391/.417/.870).
Ben Zobrist: He’s a 35-year-old middle infielder who entered the season seemingly in decline, but Zobrist has been terrific so far in 2016, posting a .310/.434/.487 line with 26 walks and 15 strikeouts. Batting either third or fifth for a Cubs team that’s scored the second most runs in baseball, he’s on pace to finish with a .310-129-24-133-5 line. Zobrist has been a top-25 fantasy player to date, and while he’s not going to keep this pace, he also doesn’t particularly feel like a sell high candidate. Fantasy owners should enjoy the steal they got at their draft over the rest of the year.
Lance McCullers: He got beat up during his first start back from the disabled list, but the key is he appears to be healthy and fully recovered from his shoulder woes. McCullers averaged a solid 93.6 mph with his fastball during his 2016 debut, and a poor start can easily be forgiven in Fenway Park. The 22-year-old posted a 3.22 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP with 129 strikeouts over 125.2 innings last season as a rookie, and he’s somehow still available in more than 20 percent of Yahoo leagues.
STOCK DOWN
Yaisel Puig: He homered Friday, which is hopefully the end of what has been a brutal slump. In fact, over his past 94 at bats (including Friday’s long ball), Puig has hit .181/.189/.309 with a 24:1 K:BB ratio (he drew five walks over his first 26 ABs this season). Puig’s IFFB% (24.4) is the second highest in MLB, and his Swing% (56.8) ranks No. 4, so the plate discipline has all but vanished. Puig still frequently makes highlight worthy throws on defense, and he remains capable of much more at the plate, but so far he’s been a major disappointment. Here are his wRC+ marks over his four-year career, respectively: 160, 147, 111, 85. That’s a troubling trend, especially for someone who’s still just 25 years old.
Sonny Gray: With a 6.00 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP, Gray has been one of the bigger busts so far in 2016. It hasn’t been just bad luck either, as he’s accompanied that with a poor 34:18 K:BB ratio. Gray’s 8.2 SwStr% is a career low, and while his fastball velocity is a bit down, the big worry is his usual dominant curveball has been anything but.
Yordano Ventura: He recorded a 3.56 ERA with 98 strikeouts over 91.0 innings after the All-Star break last year, and at age 25, now is the time Ventura should be fully breaking out. Instead, he’s sitting with a 4.62 ERA and an unsightly 1.57 WHIP to go along with an ugly 26:28 K:BB ratio over 37.0 innings this season. His average fastball velocity has declined every year he’s been in the league (97.5, 97.0, 96.4, 94.4), with the latest being especially worrisome since it’s a full 2.0 mph less than last season. It’s pretty eye opening Ventura’s 4.62 ERA is accompanied by a .236 BABIP.
Michael Brantley: What a disaster for those who not only spent a mid-round pick on him but also occupied a roster spot holding onto him since. Brantley hit .213/.279/.282 with just one steal over 39 at bats before his shoulder started hurting again, landing him back on the disabled list. The Indians should give him extended rest to make sure he’s close to 100 percent when he returns next time.
Prince Fielder: Through 134 at bats, Fielder sits at .194/.255/.291 this season, as he’s been a huge bust. His .220 BABIP is surely unlucky, but it’s also come with his lowest Hard% (25.5) and his second highest Soft% (19.1) of his career. Fielder’s wRC+ (40) is the sixth lowest in major league baseball. He’s 32 years old, so it’s unlikely he’s suddenly done, but it’s been a rough start to 2016 for the slugger. Still, there’s too long of a track record not to expect a rebound soon, so Fielder is someone to target if his owner in your league is getting impatient.
