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By now you should all know the drill. We examine daily prices for 10 players, looking for bargains and busts. Let's get to work...
Players to buy:
Freddie Freeman, 1B, at Tor (Dickey), $3,500 at FanDuel: He leads the league in hard-hit rate and owns a career .476/.522/.922 line against R.A. Dickey. Rogers Centre is a hitter’s park, and there are 15 first basemen with a higher price tag Saturday.
Jordan Zimmermann, SP, vs. Phi (Harang), $9,900: He’s coming off a clunker in which he was pounded for seven earned runs over 2.1 innings. But that was in Fenway, and Zimmermann is typically dominant at home and is facing a Phillies offense that’s scored the fewest runs per game (2.18) this season. The Nats are -190 favorites in a game with a low O/U (7), so Zimmermann should be worth this price.
Matt Adams, 1B, vs. Cin (Bailey), $3,300: He’s 6-for-10 with two walks and no strikeouts in his career against Homer Bailey, who will be making his season debut returning from an elbow injury. Not only should Bailey be rusty, but St. Louis is filled with players with a strong history against him (Matt Carpenter (1.280 OPS), Yadier Molina (1.020 OPS), Kolten Wong (1.417 OPS)), so feel free to stack the Cardinals.
Chris Carter, OF, vs. LAA (Wilson), $2,600: He’s off to an extremely ugly start, which is why he can be had so cheap. But Carter hit 10 homers over 135 at-bats against lefties last season, and the low contact slugger is facing a southpaw who’s currently sporting a low 10.7 K%.
Logan Morrison, 1B, vs. Tex (Lewis), $2,200: He’s dirt cheap facing a pitcher who’s extremely fly ball heavy and prone to serving up homers. Colby Lewis has shown diminished velocity (he’s averaged a career-low 87.8 mph on his fastball) and has been especially vulnerable to left-handers throughout his career.
Brad Miller, SS, vs. Tex (Miller), $2,200: See Logan Morrison above.
Devon Travis: 2B, vs. Atl (Wood), $2,800: The rookie is suddenly off to a .375-9-3-12 start over 11 games and is now batting leadoff with Jose Reyes banged up. Travis will be facing a southpaw Saturday, so he looks like a bargain.
Jacob deGrom, SP, vs. Mia (Latos), $9,400: If you want to go a littler cheaper than Zimmermann (or prefer to play the later slate), deGrom is another fine option. His 1.30 WHIP suggests he’s been lucky so far, and there’s no question he’s faced an easy schedule early on, but his 11.0 SwStr% also suggests he’s elite. The O/U total (6.5) for this game is the lowest on the board Saturday, and opposing starter Mat Latos has allowed 16 base runners over 4.2 innings this season.
Players to fade:
Todd Frazier, 3B, at Stl (Martinez), $3,600: Carlos Martinez is always tough on righties, but Frazier has struggled especially, producing just one hit while striking out five times over nine career at bats.
David Ortiz, 1B, vs. Bal (Tillman), $3,700: It’s possible matchup numbers should be ignored entirely, as some suggest, but I wouldn’t pay this price for Ortiz, who’s 3-for-27 in his career against Chris Tillman.