Will Zach Ertz finally breakout in 2016?
It seems every year Zach Ertz gets touted as the player we expect to have a breakout season. His potential is obvious so it’s fair to wonder when it will all come together for the fourth year man out of Stanford. We saw some major glimpses at the end of the season last year, but could this finally be the year Ertz puts it all together?
What should we expect from Zach Ertz?
In order to gain some context, let’s take a look at some tight ends under head coach Doug Pederson and offensive coordinator Frank Reich. Pederson worked with Travis Kelce every year he was in Kansas City. Kelce is a good physical comparison to Ertz since they are very similar in stature. Throughout 16 games in 2015, Kelce caught 72 passes for 875 yards (12.2 average) while hauling in five touchdowns.
Antonio Gates had some injury problems in 2015 and only played 11 games. His 2014 season is a better comparison since he played in all 16 games. Frank Reich was also still the offensive coordinator of the Chargers at that time. During that season Gates caught 69 passes for 821 yards (11.9 average) while catching 12 touchdowns.
For reference, throughout 15 games in 2015, Ertz caught 75 passes for 853 yards (11.4 average) with two touchdowns.
We can see all three had similar numbers in terms of catches and yards, while Gates was used as a much bigger red zone threat than Kelce and Ertz. I think it’s a good sign for Ertz that both Pederson and Reich have been around great tight ends. We also know from our days with Andy Reid that the west coast system will heavily rely on the tight end position.
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Another thing going Ertz’ way is his chemistry with Bradford. This took longer to develop than we had hoped due to Ertz having surgery during the preseason to help repair a core muscle injury. Bradford had to spend the offseason rehabbing from his second ACL surgery all while learning a new offensive system. You can see why it took some time for the two players to get on the same page.
Once they did, however, the results were evident. Specifically, Ertz stepped up as the main offensive receiving threat during the last three games of the season. In that span, Ertz had 30 receptions for 352 yards with one touchdown.
I also think Ertz was somewhat misused last year under Chip Kelly. Kelly wanted his offensive players to be very multidimensional. The up tempo offense needs players with diversity among skillsets since constantly subbing players and changing personnel groupings slows the pace down. Conversely, I think Pederson will be more open to players having specialized roles.
Celek will be used as the primary blocking tight end and Ertz will be the primary pass catching weapon from that position. The offense becomes more about execution than speed.
As you can see, Ertz’ production in years past has been on par with some of the tight ends that Pederson and Reich have already worked with. Pederson, being a former quarterback, will want to make Bradford’s job as easy as possible. I expect him to put a heavy emphasis on the run game.
This should help keep pressure off Bradford while also opening up the play action passing game. Ertz is the best playmaker this team currently has on offense. With his size and route running ability, he should continue to cause mismatches across the middle of the field against linebackers and safeties. From a statistical standpoint, Ertz is right there with the best tight ends in the league.
If he can improve his production in the red zone by finally notching double digit touchdown receptions, we may finally see the breakout season from Ertz we’ve been predicting all along.
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