Yahoo Sportsbook Daily - 12/28/2021 - Early look at Cincinnati-Alabama and Georgia-Michigan
Pam Maldonado takes an early look at Friday's two College Football Playoff semifinal games between the Cincinnati Bearcats and Alabama Crimson Tide in the Cotton Bowl Classic and the Georgia Bulldogs and Michigan Wolverines in the Orange Bowl.
Video Transcript
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PAM MALDONADO: Welcome to the "Yahoo Sportsbook Daily." It is Tuesday, December 28th. Christmas has come and gone, and the new year is now upon us. Pam Maldonado bringing you an early look into the college football semifinal playoff games kicking off on New Year's Eve.
Now I am definitely not one to place my wagers early. I'm more of the person who likes to observe. I want to see the lines. I want to see how it moves. I want to wait for any final player news, especially in a time of COVID. I want to wait for an updated weather check. I prefer to do all of these things throughout the week and place my wagers the day of, but that's just me. Even with the games as big as these, my strategy will not change, but I do want to offer up an early preview to the college football playoff two semifinal games.
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Looking first at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, we have Cincinnati Bearcats versus Alabama Crimson Tide, minus 13 and 1/2 point favorites. The total for this game is 57 and 1/2. In the college football playoff game, we get a Group of Five team facing one of the most decorated college football head coaches of all time in Nick Saban. And now, look, I get it, Alabama is good. But it is Nick Saban, and he is great. But this is it. We finally get to see if the Bearcats can swim in the deep end.
I'm looking to the total and looking to the over 57 and 1/2. The Bearcats are ranked second best in the nation against the pass. However, aside from playing a MAC team in Miami Ohio, Cincinnati has played just three teams in the top 25 for passing yards. Against SMU, that was a Mustangs team that was down its leading wide receiver, accounting for a quarter of their receiving scores, announced right before kickoff. It definitely had an outcome in that matchup. Against East Carolina, that was also a team that was down its second best wide receiver. However, Cincinnati did limit Houston to just 250 passing yards and held all three opponents to 20 points or less.
Now I'm talking about some good defense, and I want to take the over. Yes, because Alabama is a whole different beast. You have Heisman winner Bryce Young, sixth in passing yards, 43 touchdowns, just four interceptions. This will be the strongest passing attack that Cincinnati has faced.
Out for Alabama, though, is wide receiver John Metchie. He leads in receptions, second in passing yards, accounting for 1,100 of the 4,500 total receiving yards, but just eight of the total receiving touchdown scores. This is the big question, will his absence come into play in this game? There are 12 separate players on the Crimson Tide with at least one receiving touchdown, plus five separate running backs with at least one rushing score.
Alabama, they're going to find theirs. 60th in passing yards on defense. The Bearcats are going to have an opportunity here to score also on their own. They will have to scrap the run game, and quarterback Desmond Ridder will have to air it out. Both teams hella efficient offenses, top 11 in yards per play, top six in points per play, top seven in touchdowns scored. Right now, I am leaning to Alabama to get the cover. I'm just not 100% there just yet. But I am really liking the over on this game.
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We've also got the Capital One Orange Bowl, Georgia minus 7 versus Michigan. The total for this game is 45 and 1/2. I definitely love the under on 45 and 1/2. You have two run-first teams, both top 10 in total defense. Georgia against other rushing teams, shutout Arkansas, held Kentucky to 13 points, and Tennessee to 17. Let me say this again, Georgia held all three-- some of the best run teams in the country-- to 75 rushing yards or less. Both teams top 10 in opponent points per play, opponent red zone scoring attempts, opponent red zone scores, and opponent touchdowns allowed.
I definitely want to make a case so badly for Michigan here, but I'm afraid that at this point I'm not entirely unbiased on this matchup. I want Michigan to win. This team is really fun to watch. I want to see Jim Harbaugh get his. I want to see running backs Hassan Haskins and Blake Corum have success against an elite defense. I'm just not entirely confident that that's going to be the case. What I am confident in, this is going to be a defense Big Ten versus SEC battle of the ages.
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To recap on some of the early leans that I have for the two college football playoff games, Cincinnati versus Alabama over 57 and 1/2, Georgia versus Michigan under 45 and 1/2. You can follow me on Twitter over at PamelaM35, and do make sure to follow all of our content over at the Yahoo Sportsbook.
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Nick Bromberg will be back tomorrow to preview the final weekend of the bowl game action on the next episode of the "Yahoo Sportsbook Daily." But until then, good bye and good luck with your bets.
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