How a win or loss vs. Saints will impact Rams’ playoff odds
If you haven’t heard by now, the Rams-Saints game on Thursday night carries a lot of weight in the NFC playoff race. They’re both 7-7, and with the Rams currently clinging to the seventh seed, the Saints are trying to overtake them and even stay alive in the NFC South.
While neither team can clinch a playoff berth tonight, nor can they be eliminated from playoff contention, this is a huge game with only a couple of weeks remaining in the regular season.
Using the New York Times playoff simulator, we can get a good idea of the playoff implications for the Rams. With a win, they improve their postseason chances considerably, but not as much as their odds will drop with a loss.
Rams’ current playoff odds: 48%
Rams’ playoff odds with win: 69%
Rams’ playoff odds with loss: 9%
That 9% number is a terrifying one for Rams fans, but things won’t be as dire as that suggests. Even if they lose tonight, they’ll have a 73% chance to make the playoffs if they beat the Giants and 49ers in the next two weeks. And that 9% figure doesn’t account for the fact that the 49ers could rest their starters in Week 18 if they lock up the No. 1 seed ahead of time.
It also doesn’t take into consideration the other games still to be played in Week 16. If the Falcons, Seahawks, Vikings, Packers, Buccaneers and Bears all somehow lose this week, the Rams’ odds will still be 26%. That’s unlikely to happen, but there’s always a chance.
This is close to being a must-win game for the Rams, but they’ll still have a shot to make the playoffs with a loss.
