Win-loss predictions for every game on the 2023 Saints schedule
Alright — we’ve had time to look at the New Orleans Saints’ 2023 schedule to get an idea of how the season might play out. We’ve known the opponents and venues for a while now, but the week-to-week grind of the NFL season matters a lot, and how these matchups are all laid out changes some things.
Back-to-back road trips matter. So do long homestands, games against 2022 playoff teams, and matchups with high-profile rookie quarterbacks. The bye week is a critical point on the calendar. We’re probably not going to come close in individual score predictions (we sure missed the mark last year), so we’re keeping it simple this time and dialing in on winners and losers each week:
Week 1 vs. Tennessee Titans (Sunday, Sept. 10 at 12 p.m. CT)
Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports
This is going to be tough. Derrick Henry and rookie draft pick Tyjae Spears are going to be a big test for a Saints run defense that regressed last year and prompted lots of turnover in the spring, and the Titans quarterback competition is going to be worth watching over the summer. Derek Carr is 3-2 against Tennessee in his career but he’s played well, throwing 10 touchdown passes against 2 interceptions while taking 7 sacks and averaging 281 passing yards per game. If the Saints defense does its job and the offensive line keeps Carr clean, they should take care of this one.
Record: 1-0
Week 2 at Carolina Panthers (Monday, Sept. 18 at 6:15 p.m. CT)
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No way the Panthers really start Andy Dalton over Bryce Young, right? Either way, weird things happen when the Saints visit Carolina, and they’ve been upset during early-season Panthers games twice in the last two years. The third time might be the charm. But the Panthers are my pick to be New Orleans’ top competition in the NFC South, and head coach Frank Reich could get the better of Dennis Allen while Carr continues to figure some things out offensively.
Record: 1-1
Week 3 at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, Sept. 24 at 12 p.m. CT)
AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton
Is Jordan Love good? Probably not if the Packers put up with Aaron Rodgers’ off-field shenanigans for so long, but this is his chance to prove he was worth a first-round pick. Either way Green Bay is a flawed team without many difference-makers defensively and a shaky offensive line. The Saints can win this game, but much of it depends on how often they can stay out of their own way with turnovers and penalties.
Record: 2-1
Week 4 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, Oct. 1 at 12 p.m.)
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The Buccaneers are going back into the NFC South’s basement after Tom Brady brought them to relevance for a year or two. This should be a welcome respite for the Saints after a couple of tough road games with conference rivals.
Record: 3-1
Week 5 at New England Patriots (Sunday, Oct. 8 at 12 p.m. CT)
AP Photo/Steve Helber
Mac Jones took a big step back last year, but Bill Belichick versus Dennis Allen is as big a coaching mismatch as you’ll see in the NFL. Belichick will give him no margin for error. Carr is 1-3 against the Patriots in his pro career, averaging just 225 passing yards per game while taking as many sacks as touchdown passes he’s thrown (6), losing 3 interceptions and a couple of fumbles along the way.
Record: 3-2
Week 6 at Houston Texans (Sunday, Oct. 15 at 12 p.m. CT)
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
The Saints are going to to play CJ Stroud before he’s had much time to settle in, so they had better make the most of the opportunity and right the ship on the second leg of this two-week road trip. Houston is fielding a talent-poor without much to work with on either side of the ball. They might be a problem someday, but not just yet.
Record: 4-2
Week 7 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (Thursday, Oct. 19 at 7:15 p.m.)
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
Trevor Lawrence might be the best quarterback the Saints see all year, and Doug Pederson calling plays for him and his stacked receiving corps is going to challenge Allen’s defense in a lot of ways. This should be a great game with plenty of big plays and high stakes between two playoff contenders — but in the end, the Saints may walk away feeling they should have hired Pederson when they had the chance.
Record: 4-3
Week 8 at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, Oct. 29 at 12 p.m. CT)
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Anthony Richardson does all of the things well that the Saints have struggled to defend: he can make big-time throws from the pocket but he’s very elusive and can make plays with his legs or throw on the run, and he’ll challenge them. The Colts have a better roster than last year’s record would suggest. This looks like the first set of back-to-back losses for New Orleans in 2023, dropping them to .500.
Record: 4-4
Week 9 vs. Chicago Bears (Sunday, Nov. 5 at 12 p.m. CT)
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The Bears, on the other hand, are just as bad as their record last year suggests. Justin Fields has struggled to average 150 passing yards per game through two years. His weapons aren’t that impressive. A once-vaunted defense has been steadily eroded over the years. The Saints have big problems if they can’t put this team away and right the ship.
Record: 5-4
Week 10 at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, Nov. 12 at 12 p.m. CT)
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
It sure would be nice to get some payback after the Vikings beat the Saints in London last year, and Minnesota proved they weren’t up to snuff in the playoffs back in January. But they’ve paired Justin Jefferson up with first-round receiver Jordan Addison and that could be a problem for a Saints secondary that fell flat in their past meeting with the Vikings. This one could come down to kicking again.
Record: 5-5
Week 11: Bye
AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack
The Saints go into their bye week hovering at .500, having gotten knocked around by a couple of playoff teams while giving as good as they’ve gotten. Some coaching mistakes and poor decisions at critical junctures can be costly and lose games they should have won. At least they can catch their breath here and prepare for the next seven games.
Record: 5-5
Week 12 at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, Nov. 26 at 12 p.m. CT)
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This is going to be a tough game in a rivalry series that always seems to go down to the wire. Defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen knows the Saints’ playbook inside and out, and he’s been given a stack of blank checks to stock his unit with. Atlanta’s offense has a lot of talent, too, but it might not be enough to prop up second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder.
Record: 6-5
Week 13 vs. Detroit Lions (Sunday, Dec. 3 on 12 p.m. CT)
AP Photo/Duane Burleson
Michael Thomas versus C.J. Gardner-Johnson. Dennis Allen versus Dan Campbell. This is going to be an intense matchup between two teams competing for the same thing — respect as legitimate playoff contenders within the NFC. New Orleans has been there before, but Detroit has built a strong squad. Jameson Williams versus Alontae Taylor will be fun; Taylor held him to 1 catch for 6 yards (on 3 targets) in the 2021 Alabama-Tennessee game. At the end of the day, coaching will make a difference, and Campbell has an edge on Allen.
Record: 6-6
Week 14 vs. Carolina Panthers (Sunday, Dec. 10 at 12 p.m. CT)
Chris Graythen/Getty Images
This game could determine the final standings in the NFC South, depending on how each team’s season goes. Carolina has a promising coaching staff and a solid roster but it’ll take time for things to settle into place. We’re guessing the benefits of experience helps New Orleans pull away with a win in the middle of this three-game home series in December.
Record: 7-6
Week 15 vs. New York Giants (Sunday, Dec. 17 at 12 p.m. CT)
Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports
This feels like a game where so much goes right for the Saints, only to swing left in the final minutes. If they protect the football, get after Daniel Jones, contain Saquon Barkley, and pick up critical first downs, they’ll be fine. But Brian Daboll’s team is built to frustrate run-first offenses like New Orleans, and he’s done a lot to expand Jones’ passing acumen and ensure the quarterback is playing to his strengths. Maybe the Saints punt when they should try and convert a fourth down. Maybe they settle for a field goal when they need a touchdown. Something weird and, in hindsight foolish, is going to trip them up here.
Record: 7-7
Week 16 at Los Angeles Rams (Thursday, Dec. 21 at 7:15 p.m. CT)
Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images
The Rams were bad last year, and they’re probably going to be worse in 2023 after purging more high-end talent from their roster and leaning on a bunch of mid-round draft picks. Aaron Donald could have a historically-great game and the Saints still might win by a touchdown.
Record: 8-7
Week 17 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, Dec. 31 at 12 p.m. CT)
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The Buccaneers will be jockeying for draft positioning by this point, and the Saints shouldn’t have a lot of difficulty in putting them away. Baker Mayfield, Kyle Trask, and John Wolford are not going to take this post-Tom Brady roster anywhere Bucs fans are interested in following.
Record: 9-7
Week 18 vs. Atlanta Falcons (TBD)
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It doesn’t matter if both teams are eliminated from the playoffs or competing for the first seed: they’re going to play hard in Week 18 with all-time bragging rights in the NFL’s best rivalry on the line. Hopefully this is a situation where the Saints can rest their starters, but odds are they’ll be competing for playoff seeding — or even the right to get into the postseason altogether if the NFC South is more competitive than we’re anticipating.
Record: 10-7
