Here’s why Dak Prescott deserves MVP more than Jalen Hurts right now
MVP awards don’t go to Cowboys quarterbacks. They just don’t. Roger Staubach never won an MVP, in all of his campaigns that led Dallas to Super Bowl appearances, win or lose. He finished second in 1971 and had back-to-back fourth finishes in his final two seasons, 1978 and 1979. Troy Aikman captained three teams to Lombardis, but never took home the hardware, his best finish being fifth in 1993.
Tony Romo had one of the better seasons in recent years in 2014, leading the league in completion percentage, touchdown percentage, passer rating and QBR in a year Dallas tied for the league’s best record, but could only finish in third place as Aaron Rodgers took the trophy. Now, Dak Prescott is making his second go at the big award, as he is enjoying an exemplary campaign.
The MVP race, for now
Right now, with five games to go, there are four top candidates and a slew of other names on the fringe but with enough statistical backing where a strong finish could catapult any of them into the mix. While Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill is having a historical campaign, and 49ers QB Brock Purdy is neck-and-neck with them both, Prescott’s biggest competition is from his own division.
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has been atop the odds in the MVP race much of the season and the two square off for the second time this season on Sunday night in Week 14. After Week 13, Prescott pulled even with Hurts according to BetMGM, as did Purdy, who engineered a dominant 49ers win over Philly in Philly. It stands to reason whomever’s team wins between Dallas and the Eagles on Sunday night will pull ahead going into Week 15.
That shouldn’t be the case, but it will be.
Is the argument really an argument?
If one looks at total volume stats, Sunday night’s two quarterbacks are in a dead heat, with Prescott having a slight edge.
The Eagles QB’s rushing yards takes him slightly in the lead, his short TD runs give him the advantage there as well, but the turnovers are heavily skewed towards Prescott’s favor.
Whether or not one wants to admit it, and this will flip-flop for each fanbase depending on what gives their side the better lighting, rushing stats are to be considered in what each brings to the table.
Hurts’ team has 10 wins and thanks to Week 9’s victory a head-to-head advantage, while Prescott’s team has nine. QBWINZ is a stat that attributes team victories to the QB because the QB is the most important part of the team, but the other components of a team build (the other players on offense, defense, special teams and coaching) can easily negate the advantage a better QB gives a team.
For decades, analysts and fans have looked to downplay QB rushing stats despite it being an element defensive coordinators struggle to stop. Why this has routinely been the case is a discussion for another time, but it’s a long-held discriminatory practice in evaluating QBs. Hurts’ ‘Tush Push’ TDs count for something, the question is how much.
The answer is, not enough to sway the MVP race. The raw volume stats may make it seem close, and the argument about the competition each has faced may lead some to believe that’s a good reason to lean Hurts, but that’s what advanced stats are here for.
The litany of evidence Prescott is having a better campaign
Of course, none of this guarantees Prescott will perform better on Sunday night and it certainly won’t matter if the Cowboys can’t win on Sunday night.
The last time a quarterback won MVP on a non-division winner came all the way back in 2008. Wild-card teams rarely have a QB clear, and when it last happened it was unusual circumstances.
Peyton Manning’s Colts had the second-best record in the league that year, one of four teams to finish 12-4. The other top QBs that year played for bad teams.
Of the five quarterbacks with more passing yards than Manning (Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Jay Cutler, Aaron Rodgers and Phillip Rivers, in order), only Warner’s team was above .500. The Rams were 9-7.
The best team in the league was the Tennessee Titans and they were powered by Chris Johnson and Lendale White; Kerry Collins was not garnering any consideration despite their 13-3 record.
So for all the stats and accolades Prescott has compiled, combined with the uphill narrative battle he’s had to climb just to finally be mentioned seriously over the last few weeks, it all flies out the window if Dallas is swept by the Eagles.
Perhaps he can win without Dallas taking the division, but not without having at least one victory over Hurts’ Eagles.
