Why I'm picking the Detroit Lions to beat the Chiefs: 13 reasons we will see an upset
I kind of backed into this column by accident, and it caught me by surprise.
Let me try to explain. I started this column thinking: OK, just for fun, list all the reasons why the Detroit Lions could win at Kansas City. Not will win. That’s not how I started. Just could win.
I know the Chiefs have the great Andy Reid, NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes, and the ever-present Travis Kelce. I know the Chiefs are favored. I know they are the defending Super Bowl champions, with a great home-field advantage and great fans and a loud environment, and I know the Chiefs should win.
But the more I’ve thought about it, the longer the list grew, and I started believing it's possible. I started believing they could win, and I totally talked myself into it: I think the Lions will win.
So there. I’m planting my flag. The Lions are going to win at Kansas City, and here are the 13 reasons why:
1. Magic of youth
This team is still incredibly young. Obviously, youth can bring mistakes, but it can also bring something else. Absolute fearlessness.
On Monday afternoon, the Lions were loose, carefree and having fun in their locker room.
Few expect them to win, so they can go out and play without any pressure, without any worry. Season opener? On the road? At Kansas City? On national TV? Against the defending Super Bowl champions?
A veteran team might roll over and sigh: We got no shot.
But not a young team that doesn’t know any better. Not a team cut in Dan Campbell's image.
And that’s how this team played down the stretch last year, winning eight of 10 including at Lambeau Field.
2. Keep holding out, big fella
It looks like Kansas City will play without Chris Jones, the All-Pro defensive tackle.
Jones, who had 15.5 sacks last season, has missed all of training camp and three preseason games in a contract dispute. He did not report on Sunday, so it’s unlikely he’ll play Thursday. At this point, why would he come back? He’s only going to forfeit about $1.1 million for each regular-season game he misses. That’s chump change, man. Hold out for that big contract. Or at least until the Lions are long gone.
“He jumps off the tape right away,” Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said. “You feel him out there when you watch their tape from last year.”
Take that guy out of the lineup?
Yeah, advantage Lions.
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3. Another missing Chief
Kansas City’s biggest weakness is its pass rush. And defensive end Charles Omenihu, who was supposed to replace defensive end Frank Clark, is suspended for the first six games because of an alleged domestic violence situation.
That should give Lions passing attack even more time to strike downfield.
4. Drawing a line in the sand
The Lions have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and everything is possible when you are strong up front.
“Yeah, it’s my blankie,” Johnson said. “It’s (Lions QB) Jared (Goff)’s blankie. I mean, those guys, they’re good, they’re special, they really are. They’re one of the top units in the League and I think we’ve always felt that way inside the building, this year we really need to come out and prove that to the rest of the League. And I think they understand that and they’re looking forward to it.”
5. First one to 38 wins
Yes, I know the Chiefs have an awesome, creative, potent offense. They ranked first in the NFL last season in points, yards per play and net passing yards per game. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in an NFL-record seven straight season-openers.
But the Lions can hang with them. The Lions ranked fourth in yards and fifth in yards per play and points.
6. Risk it for the biscuit
In high-scoring games, Campbell turns into the Gambling Dan, and I expect we will see that version him early and often. Trick plays. Going for it on fourth down. I have a feeling this is going to be a wild show.
7. Improved secondary
The Lions had a horrible pass defense last year, that’s been well documented. But they have revamped their secondary.
“They're just better,” Lions QB coach Mark Brunell said. “They're just better which is exciting. And sticky would be the word.”
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8. Lions added explosive weapons
Here’s my prediction: the Lions are gonna line rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs up all over the field and have him streak down the field — using his speed and stretching the field.
“I think (deep passing threats) can come from a number of different positions,” Johnson told reporters. “It doesn’t necessarily have to be the receiver spot, but I feel comfortable with what we’ve done here in training camp that we’ve got plenty of guys that can stretch the field vertically, so I’m not really concerned about that early in the season here.”
9. Goff is better
Listen, if the Lions turns the ball over, they have no chance on Thursday. But if Goff can play smart, which is how he played at the end of last season, they have a shot.
“He's more comfortable,” Brunell said. “He's very confident. He knows what we're trying to do, who we're trying to get the ball to. Not just the X's and O's, but the intent of why we're calling this play. Why we are approaching the Kansas City Chiefs with this type of game plan. What are we trying to attack, just a bigger picture and a greater understanding of what we're trying to accomplish."
The last time Goff and Mahomes played, it turned into the third-highest scoring game of all time. Goff and the Rams beat Mahomes, 54-51. So, Goff won't freak out in this setting.
10. One hand helps the other
So, the Lions' defense is better. That seems evident. But there is a side benefit.
That has actually made the offense better in practice.
“They made training camp very challenging,” Brunell said. “The ball has to be on time, and it has to be accurate — this training camp. If it wasn't, then it wasn't going to be a completed pass. They were always around the ball.”
11. Hutch a year older
Aidan Hutchinson is entering his second season, a year wiser. And an improved secondary could help him get more sacks.
12. Lions have ball hawks
NFL games usually come down to a few plays.
And the easiest way to flip a game is a turnover.
The Lions' improved secondary has a couple of ball hawks in Kerby Joseph, who had four interceptions in 2022, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson, who had six.
“I do believe that we’ve got some playmakers back there on the backend," Campbell said. "So I think we’re much better suited than we’ve been here to come up with some — man, you get some tipped balls, overthrows, get a hand on a ball that we’re going to come down with those, and not only there on the backend, but I think we’ll have the ability to squeeze the pocket on these guys and just really all year I believe we’ll be able to do that with our front. And so, that bodes well to getting some takeaways, those two things.”
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13. Detroit vs. the universe
My final reason isn’t really a reason. Maybe, it’s more of a plea to the universe.
Can’t Detroit get this, just one time?
Can’t Detroit have a magical season, right from the start?
Can’t everything align?
After all the suffering and losing, can't we have nice things, just once?
Yes, sir.
Lions 38, Chiefs 35.
Contact Jeff Seidel at jseidel@freepress.com or follow him @seideljeff.
For openers: Chiefs
Matchup: Lions (9-8 in 2022) vs. Kansas City (14-3 in 2022), season opener.
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. Thursday; Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri.
TV/radio: NBC; WXYT-FM (97.1).
Line: Chiefs by 6½.
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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: 13 reasons why Detroit Lions will beat K.C. Chiefs — no, seriously
