Why Auburn women's basketball can, can't reach Sweet 16 in 2024 March Madness predictions
Auburn women's basketball is set to return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019. The 11-seeded Tigers are set to take on the 11-seeded Arizona Wildcats in a First Four matchup for the right to take on sixth-seeded Syracuse in the Round of 64.
Auburn (20-11) is seeking its first NCAA Tournament win since 2016 and hopes to make a run to the Sweet 16 for the ninth time in program history. The Tigers have not advanced past the tournament's second round since 1996, when they made it to the Elite Eight.
The Tigers have their work cut out for them if they want to make a run as a double-digit seed. Here's why Auburn women's basketball can, or can't, make a run to the Sweet 16 in March Madness:
Why Auburn women's basketball can reach the Sweet 16
Johnnie Harris has a winning pedigree
Third-year coach Johnnie Harris brings plenty of March Madness experience to the Auburn Tigers.
Harris was an assistant coach for Texas A&M from 2007 to 2012 and was part of the Aggies' 2010-11 team that won the national championship. From there, she went to Mississippi State to serve as assistant head coach to Vic Schaeffer. The Bulldogs made the tournament every year from 2015 to 2020 under Schaeffer and Harris, including back-to-back national championship game appearances in 2017 and 2018. Harris followed Schaeffer to Texas in 2020, helping lead the Longhorns to the Elite Eight in 2021 before she was hired at Auburn.
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The Tigers have improved each season under Harris since she was hired. The Tigers went 10-18 and won just two conference games in her first season. They improved to 16-15 last season but went just 5-11 in SEC play. This season's 20-11 record and 8-8 SEC record are Auburn's best since 2019, and they have been rewarded with a tournament berth.
Harris has yet to coach a March Madness game as the head coach, but her experience in the Big Dance as a successful assistant coach makes Auburn that much more dangerous as a double-digit seed.
Auburn's feisty defense
Auburn has quietly been one of the best defensive teams in women's college basketball this season, especially when it comes to creating turnovers.
Teams average 20.58 turnovers per game against the Tigers, the 15th-highest turnovers forced per game mark in the nation. The Tigers also rank 15th in turnover margin, as they average 5.29 fewer turnovers per game than they force.
The defense allows just 58.5 points per game and has held its opponents to 37.7% shooting from the field. If Auburn can continue to force turnovers at a high rate and limit its opponents' scoring opportunities, it should be able to keep the game close and potentially upset a higher seed or two.
Why Auburn women's basketball can't reach Sweet 16
One-dimensional offense
The Tigers' offense is led by star guard Honesty Scott-Grayson. The graduate senior was named first-team All-SEC after averaging 17.4 points, 4.2 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game. Her 17.4 points per game is the 65th-best individual average in the nation and third-best in the SEC.
The offense runs through Scott-Grayson and her reliable jump shot, but the Tigers have not seen a reliable second option step up with much consistency. No other Tiger averages nine points per game, with JaMya Mingo-Young's 8.9 average being the second-highest on the team.
Auburn does have a pair of decent 3-point shooters with Mingo-Young (team-high 35.9%) and Sydney Shaw (33.3%), but the Tigers only average 3.8 made threes per game. Teams will naturally key in on Scott-Grayson defensively, so Auburn will have to get more production from her supporting cast if they want to make significant noise in the Big Dance.
Inexperience
Auburn's opponent will certainly have the edge when it comes to tournament experience.
The Arizona Wildcats have made the tournament for four straight seasons under coach Adia Barnes, including a run to the national championship game in 2021. The Wildcats return two key contributors from last year's roster in Esmery Martinez and Helena Pueyo. Harris will be going against a coach who has been bringing her team to March Madness for longer than Harris has been a head coach.
This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Auburn women in Sweet 16? Prediction for 2024 March Madness, NCAAs
