Where UI football could finish in 2023

Aug. 25—Analysis

The Idaho football team will kick off one of its most highly anticipated seasons in less than a week against Lamar at Provost Umphrey Stadium in Beaumont, Texas.

The Vandals have received a lot of preseason hype, and deservedly so, whether because of the talent on the field or the return of second-year coach Jason Eck. The hype has put Idaho near the top of most preseason Football Championship Subdivision polls, with its highest-ranking being No. 5 from HeroSports.

All this hype and expectations are uncharted waters for the Vandals, especially relative to to last year.

The second-year coaching staff and talent were unproven in 2022, but the group still managed to lead the Vandals to the FCS playoffs for the first time since 1995 with a 7-4 overall record.

Idaho ended up getting bounced in the first round of the FCS playoffs following a 45-42 decision against Southeastern Louisiana.

So, with an all-time season under their belt, a slew of talent on both sides of the ball, and a determined coaching staff, where will the Vandals finish in 2023?

A possible nonconference sweep

The Vandals showed signs of promise early last season in their 24-17 loss in Week 1 to cross-town foe Washington State.

Idaho gave up 14 points in the second half before scoring one more time following a 23-yard connection from quarterback Gevani McCoy to receiver Jordan Dwyer with 6:03 remaining in the game to cut the deficit to within one possession.

Idaho's defense stood tough, and the Vandals managed to take the game until the final play, which was a failed hail mary attempt.

While it was a loss, Idaho competed, led in the game and had a chance against a middle-of-the-road Pac-12 team.

The Vandals continued to fight within their nonconference schedule, going up 10 again against Indiana at halftime the following week before ultimately losing 35-22.

Idaho finished its nonleague portion of the schedule with a 42-14 win over its only non-FBS opponent, Drake.

This season, Idaho has a better outlook, with its schedule featuring a bottom-level Pac-12 team in California, a bottom-level Mountain West team in Nevada and an FCS opponent in Lamar.

The Vandals started last season trying to find their identity throughout the first three weeks of the season and it's fair to say they know who they are this year.

Idaho will also play the easiest of its three matchups first, going against Lamar on Aug. 31.

The Cardinals are coming off a 1-win season but do have a new coach in Pete Rossomando, who has over three decades of coaching experience. Despite this, if there was a game the Vandals should circle early as an early win, it's this one.

Idaho's next test will be in Reno on Sept. 9 as it takes on the Wolfpack.

Nevada, which was chosen to finish 11th in the Mountain West Conference, is currently dealing with some inner turmoil. The university announced Wednesday that quarterback coach Nate Costa had resigned. The Pack's special teams coordinator, Mitch Barton, also left the program recently.

With everything going on within Nevada's staff, Idaho clearly has an edge there. It'll all depend on how the team plays on the field come Sept. 9, but the Vandals have a good shot.

On Sept. 16, Idaho will travel to Berkeley, Calif., to play California. This will be the Vandals' biggest nonconference test, and it'll come at the end of their slate.

A lot of what will happen in this game probably depends on the success of the first two nonleague games. If Idaho manages to come away with a 2-0 record against both Nevada and Lamar, Cal is going to struggle against the Vandals, who will have momentum on their side. But if Idaho manages to drop one of its nonconference games and comes in 1-1 or, even worse, 0-2, things might not look so pretty.

If things go right, Idaho could potentially be looking at a 3-0 start. But it'll have to find a way to do this while playing on the road.

Idaho will have to travel a total of 3,764 miles in its three nonleague games, and traveling was an area of weakness last year for the Vandals.

Conference play is what matters

It doesn't really matter what the Vandals do in nonconference play if they don't do well within the Big Sky.

Idaho will have to play all of the Big Sky teams who made it to the FCS playoffs last season, along with Weber State, which was on the bubble. On the bright side, all of the Vandals' marquee conference games will be played at the P1FCU Kibbie Dome.

Idaho will host Montana, Montana State, Sacramento State and Idaho State in 2023. The Vandals played three (Montana, Sac State, Idaho State) out of the four teams last year and finished 2-1.

There is potential for stepbacks from both Montana and Sacramento State. The Hornets will be without All-American running back Cameron Skattebo and coach Troy Taylor, who is now the head man at Stanford.

The Grizzlies are a tough team to diagnose this year, being ranked third in the Big Sky media poll and sixth in the coaches poll. Montana will always be in good shape with Bobby Hauck as the coach, but the Vandals did find a way to squeak past them last year.

Out of these four games, the Vandals will probably be favored in half of them (Montana and Idaho State), with Sac State being a potential coin flip.

The only home conference game for the Vandals that feels unwinnable is their Oct. 28 matchup against the unanimous top dog in the Big Sky, Montana State.

Amidst many controversies in the Big Sky's media and coaches poll, where some teams had a difference of three spots, one thing that was consistent was the Bobcats' dominance.

Montana State also ranks third in HeroSports preseason FCS poll, and rightfully so; they're one of the biggest powerhouses in the country right now. But if Idaho wants to prove its No. 5 ranking in the country right, these are the types of games it has to win. The Vandals will also benefit from coming off a bye week.

As for the conference games Idaho plays on the road (Cal Poly, Eastern Washington, Weber State and Northern Colorado), it should (again, on paper) have no problem winning three out of the four games.

The biggest test on the Vandals' conference road slate will be against the Wildcats on Nov. 11.

Weber will have one of the best defenses in the Big Sky and will be a solid test for Idaho's offense, which will produce a ton of fireworks.