Week 16 NFL Power Rankings: Not for long!
Things can change in the blink of an eye in the National Football League. One minute your team is considered one of the best in the league, the next you’re potentially watchin the playoffs from the couch. One minute, your organization is viewed as the inevitable Super Bowl Champions, the next minute you have glaring weaknesses.
One minute, you are the starting quarterback for a playoff contender. The next minute. you’re released.
That is life in the NFL, which Jerry Glanville once famously referred to as the “Not For Long” league. Right now some players, and some teams, are finding that out the hard way.
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-14. Last week: 32)
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Mission... accomplished? With their blowout loss to the Chicago Bears on Sunday - and the New York Jets’ upset of the Cleveland Browns - the Jacksonville Jaguars have locked up the first-overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. That means the Jaguars are the perceived winners of the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes. Jacksonville started Mike Glennon at quarterback against the Bears, and the veteran QB threw a pair of interceptions in the 41-17 loss. As you will start to hear, Jacksonville might be the most desirable landing spot in the next head coach/general manager hiring cycle. The Jaguars have cap space, a ton of draft capital (six picks in the first 100 selections including a pair of first-round selections) and the keys to Lawrence. This could be a quicker turnaround than people expect.
New York Jets (2-13. Last week: 31)
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The suddenly scorching-hot New York Jets have put together a two-game winning streak. Perhaps to the dismay of their fanbase. With their 23-16 upset of the Cleveland Browns, the Jets are now locked into the second spot in the upcoming NFL draft. While Jets fans were dreaming of Trevor Lawrence a few months ago, now that dream is gone, and the fan base has to consider some other options as they look to the future. However, all should not be lost when you step back and look at things in terms of the big picture. Both Zach Wilson and Justin Fields are solid-to-elite prospects at the quarterback position, with Wilson generating a ton of late buzz as his season came to a close. The team could certainly pick one of those two QBs and be just as happy if the coaching staff does their job. Or, and hear me out, New York could ride one more year with Darnold. Imagine pairing Penei Sewell at one tackle spot with Mekhi Becton? What about adding a top receiver to pair with Denzel Mims? Or would you want a matchup nightmare type of player in Kyle Pitts? You could even trade back, get a haul in return, and still get one of those players. All I’m saying is this: The Jets now have multiple pathways to acquire some impact players through the draft, whether they sit pat at two or trade out. That is usually a good thing. Usually.
Houston Texans (4-11. Last week: 29)
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One of the more exciting games of the weekend was the early back-and-forth affair between a pair of teams with losing records, the Cincinnati Bengals and the Houston Texans. The teams largely traded scores until the final quarter, with the Bengals out-scoring the Texans 13-7 in the fourth to take home a 37-31 win over Houston. Deshaun Watson was strong yet again and remains must-watch football. The quarterback completed 24 of 33 passes for 324 yards and three touchdowns in the loss. But Brandon Allen carved up the Houston defense to the tune of 29 of 37 passing for 371 and a pair of TDs. Furthermore, the Houston offense struggled down in the red zone, which is a perfect way to pay homage to one of the best football personalities there is, John McClain of the Houston Chronicle. John has been covering the NFL for over 40 years, and his Twitter feed and columns are always must-read. But particularly when the Texans are struggling. A smattering of Sunday’s best from John: https://twitter.com/McClain_on_NFL/status/1343302808968245249 https://twitter.com/McClain_on_NFL/status/1343302967919783940 He’s one of the best there is. Now hopefully the team produces to the level he does in the next season.
Atlanta Falcons (4-11. Last week: 30)
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This week on the Touchdown Wire NFL Matchup Podcast, Doug Farrar told me that the Kansas City Chiefs were going to face a bit of a struggle against the Atlanta Falcons. As one might expect, I was rather skeptical. Take your victory lap now, Doug. The Falcons took the Chiefs down to the wire, losing by a final score of 17-14. The Falcons defense pressured Patrick Mahomes at times, forced an interception from him and Sammy Watkins on a trick play early in the game, and held the Chiefs to just 7 points in the first half. But ten points in the final quarter were enough for Kansas City to survive, as Mahomes found Marcus Robinson with under two minutes to go for the game-winning touchdown. Those wondering about Matt Ryan will take note of the veteran quarterback’s day. Ryan completed 27 of 35 passes for 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Ryan, and the offense in general, are not the problem in Atlanta. Calvin Ridley continued his hot run of play, catching five passes for 130 yards in the loss. With some additions on the defensive side of the football, this could be a playoff team sooner than you expect.
Detroit Lions (5-10. Last week: 26)
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The Detroit Lions, like some other teams this season, were put in an incredibly difficult position this weekend when interim head coach Darrell Bevell was ruled out due to COVID-19 protocols, leaving wide receivers coach Robert Prince to take his place Saturday against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This was in the wake of a decision to fire their special teams coach after he went off script and called for a fake punt early in the fourth quarter of last week’s loss to the Tennessee Titans. It’s been a season in Detroit. Thankfully with Matt Patricia gone that probably meant less man coverage against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers on Saturday. Wait, I’m being told there is an update to that statement… Brady carved up the Lions defense en route to a 47-7 shellacking that had quarterback Matthew Stafford resting by halftime. Detroit, particularly on the defensive side of the football, is a mess. The Lions also allowed two deep touchdowns to backup Blaine Gabbert, which is a fine excuse to drag out the best YouTube video ever. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=09oUUhkSxbQ For the Lions, help cannot get here soon enough.
Denver Broncos: (5-10. Last week: 25)
(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
This season for the Denver Broncos almost seems like it was building to this point. A Week 16 meeting against their division rivals, an organization that seems to have at least answered the riddle Denver still seeks to solve: The quarterback position. That riddle looks clearer today depending on your point of view. While Justin Herbert was leading the Chargers to a win and completing 21 of 33 passes for 253 yards and a touchdown, Lock was scuffling. He threw a pair of interceptions, and while the second came on the game’s final play in a Hail Mary situation, the first came in the end zone on Denver’s opening drive and negated a scoring threat. Lock may still end up being the answer to Denver’s quarterback problems, but the Broncos need to give serious thought to a viable Plan B for 2021. As it stands right now Denver is picking outside of the top ten, so grabbing one of the more promising QB prospects in the draft might not be plausible. But the Broncos would be wise to explore a more stable presence on the free agency market to serve as that backstop to Lock’s third NFL season. As it seems like we saw each week with Lock, the promise is there, but time is running short.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-10-1. Last week: 27)
(Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)
For the second-straight week a backup quarterback shined brightly for the Cincinnati Bengals. Last week it was Ryan Finley playing a starring role in an upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers. This week it was Brandon Allen who returned to action, and the backup carved up the Houston Texans to the tune of 29 of 37 for 371 and a pair of touchdowns. Allen was not sacked, nor did he throw an interception, and his NFL passer rating of 126.5 was a career-high mark. What was also impressive about Allen’s performance was the way he spread the football around. Tee Higgings had six catches for 99 yards and a touchdown, Alex Erickson had six catches, Gio Bernard had seven receptions, A.J. Green had four and Samaje Perine had four of his own. The Bengals’ running game also chipped in, with Perine and Bernard combining for 160 yards on their 29 carries. Now, these recent victories have cost the Bengals in one way, as Cincinnati has now slid to the sixth-overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft were that to happen right now. A loss in the final weekend could potentially improve their positioning, but right now the Miami Dolphins (courtesy of the Houston Texans) and the Atlanta Falcons are currently picking in front of them. Perhaps that means the end of Penei Sewell in Cincinnati?
Carolina Panthers (5-10. Last week: 28)
(Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)
Last week it was the Cincinnati Bengals, with nothing to play for, throwing a big wrinkle into the playoff plans of the Pittsburgh Steelers. This week the Carolina Panthers were one team trying that spoiler hat on for size. With the Washington Football Team looking to finally lock down the NFC East division title thanks to the loss earlier in the day by the New York Giants, the Panthers put that celebration on hold. Teddy Bridgewater completed 19 of 28 passes for 197 yards and a touchdown - along with one interception - and Carolina got over 100 yards receiver from Curtis Samuel (106 to be exact) on just five receptions. The defense forced a pair of interceptions from Dwayne Haskins Jr., who was forced to be the bench in favor of Taylor Heinicke who tried to engineer a late comeback. The win hurt Carolina from a draft pick perspective, as the Panthers are now in danger of perhaps even falling out of the top ten depending on how Week 17 shakes out, but that could still put them in range of an elite talent depending on how the board falls. If, however, they want to go the quarterback route then Sunday’s win was perhaps a bit of a mixed result.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-10-1. Last week: 23)
(Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)
Sunday began with Philadelphia Eagles fans dreaming of a longshot playoff bid. It ended with them dreaming of a top-five pick in the draft. Philadelphia’s slim window of hope into the playoffs slammed shut on Sunday evening, as the Eagles dropped a must-win game to the Dallas Cowboys 37-17. Much of the attention will likely focus on rookie quarterback Jalen Hurts, who threw a pair of interceptions and had a pair of fumbles, one of which was lost. All of the turnovers came in the second half when the Eagles were trying to mount a comeback. Making matters worse, all three turnovers came in Dallas territory, with the first interception and the fumble taking place in the red zone. Although to be fair, the fumble was a rather questionable ruling... But blame should also fall at the feet of the Philadelphia defense. Andy Dalton threw for three touchdown passes and the trio of talented Dallas wideouts put on a show. Michael Gallup, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb combined for 13 receptions, 307 yards and three touchdowns, and all three receivers averaged more than 20 yards per reception. If any Eagles fans are reading this, you might want to watch a few cornerbacks before the draft...
New England Patriots (6-9. Last week: 21)
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"The margin for error is so small. There is no room for error." With those words in the first half of Monday night's game Brian Griese summed up the entire season for the New England Patriots. Because of their woes on the offensive side of the football, every game, every half, every drive is a slog. If 1st-and-10 turns into 2nd-and-14, it feels like an offensive possession is over. They just are not good enough right now to overcome their mistakes. Want more proof? Look at their opening possession. They were moving the football and then Josh McDaniels called a trick play at the perfect moment. Cam Newton flipped a toss to Sony Michel who aimed for the right edge, but then pulled up and threw back to Newton behind the line of scrimmage. The quarterback had Damiere Byrd open on a deep crosser inside the Buffalo ten-yard line and the pass was on point. Byrd dropped it. Of course, the focus will remain on the quarterback position. Comments recently from Bill Belichick indicate that the organization is not giving up on Newton for 2020 and even 2021, but Patriots fans are growing impatient.
Los Angeles Chargers (6-9. Last week: 22)
(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
It looked like the Los Angeles Chargers were going to suffer another defeat, Chargers-style. After getting out to a lead against the Denver Broncos, the Chargers saw that lead slowly melt away. A 16-3 lead as the third quarter came to a close turned into a game that hinged on the final play. But when wide receiver Mike Williams came down with Drew Lock’s Hail Mary attempt, Los Angeles avoided a fate that almost seemed their destiny. Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert remained impressive, as he completed 21 of 33 passes for 253 yards and a touchdown, and set a few rookie records in the victory. Herbert’s touchdown pass in the second quarter was his 28th of the season, eclipsing a mark of 27 set by Baker Mayfield back in 2018. More impressive, however, was the scoring drive he engineered to win the game, his third-straight game with such a scoring drive in the closing minutes. When the Broncos knotted the game at 16, the Chargers needed to respond. They did, on a seven-play scoring drive that culminated with a field goal that would prove decisive. On the drive Herbert completed a 23-yard pass to Jalen Guyton, but he will probably want to avoid the discussion about the sack he took prior to the field goal… Still, the Chargers seem to have their answer at quarterback, which is a riddle quite a few teams are still trying to solve.
San Francisco 49ers (6-9. Last week: 24)
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From where I sit, there are two major takeaways from the San Francisco 49ers’ stunning 20-12 win over the Arizona Cardinals on Saturday, from the San Francisco perspective. First there is the win for quarterback C.J. Beathard in his first start in over 700 days, and just over a year to the day that the QB learned of his brother’s death outside of a bar in Nashville. As Beathard put it after the win, “...[y]ou can't write a script any different. I couldn't handpick this to go the way it did.” This was not a case where a reserve QB handed the ball off seventy times to lead his team to a victory, but rather the win saw Beathard complete 13 of 22 passes for 182 yards and three touchdowns. The other story is this: Robert Saleh is going to be a head coach somewhere next year. That has been evident since perhaps last season’s run to the Super Bowl, but with the 49ers going deep into the playoffs Saleh missed out on many of the head coaching interview opportunities. This year, with the 49ers eliminated and Richard Sherman pushing for him to get a job, Saleh is going to get those interview chances. And he’s going to get a job.
New York Giants (5-10. Last week: 19)
(Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports)
The easiest path to the NFC East title - and a playoff berth for the New York Giants - started with a win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16. Early on, it was clear that would not be in the cards for the Giants. Baltimore put together a pair of impressive drives on their first two possessions of the game en route to an early 14-0 lead over the Giants. The first, a 13-play, 82-yard drive was capped off with a six-yard scoring pass from Lamar Jackson to Marquise Brown. The second, a ten-play, 65-yard drive ended with a touchdown run from J.K. Dobbins from just two yards out. By halftime the Ravens had a 20-3 lead, and the Giants had a pair of punts and a field goal to show for their efforts. In the second half, the Ravens pulled away and the Giants would not see the end zone until the fourth quarter, when the game was largely out of reach. Now, New York has to turn to some scoreboard-watching. If things do not break their way, some interesting debates will be had within and around the organization about the future of a few spots, including what to do with quarterback Daniel Jones. The quarterback has not taken the kind of stride in his second season that Giants fans were hoping for, and only time will tell how the organization views him going forward.
Washington Football Team (6-9. Last week: 18)
(Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports)
A strange week in our nation’s capital ended with people putting celebratory plans back on ice. Of course I’m talking about the Washington Football Team, and nothing else at all. After last week’s loss quarterback Dwayne Haskins Jr. was photographed at an event without a mask and the blowback was quick, and harsh. He was fined by the team and stripped of his captaincy. Then more reports surfaced about allegations of sexual harassment against owner Daniel Snyder, including the news that the team settled one such claim against the owner years back. Finally the team had the chance to put at least some of that in the past with a win over the Carolina Panthers, which would clinch the division title. Haskins was given the start, but was sent to the bench after his second interception. The team turned to Taylor Heinicke, who engineered a touchdown drive late in the game to cut into Carolina’s lead, but it was not enough. For Haskins, it would be his last time in a Washington uniform, as he was released on Monday. With the Giants and the Philadelphia Eagles losing, the Football Team still controls their own playoff destiny. A win over the Eagles in Week 17 and they are in. A loss, and the storm clouds over Washington will remain until next season.
Minnesota Vikings (6-9. Last week: 17)
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With that, the Minnesota Vikings were eliminated from playoff contention. Although, if a team gives up 52 points in a must-win Week 16 matchup, you can debate just how close they were to the playoffs they really were. After surrendering the most points since John F. Kennedy Jr. was President the Vikings need to regroup and focus on 2021. Head coach Mike Zimmer stated that this iteration of the Vikings’ defense was not just “bad,” but the “worst one [he’s] ever had.” Thankfully this is a bit of a young group, particularly in the secondary, so some growing pains were expected. The problem with this team is that with a defense that is struggling it becomes necessary for the offense to outscore teams, and this is just not how the Vikings are built. The Vikings have a pair of third-round picks as well as three in the fourth round, so look for some additions on the defensive side of the football as well as some help in the offensive trenches.
Las Vegas Raiders (7-8. Last week: 16)
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The Kansas City Chiefs may have cost the Las Vegas Raiders a playoff spot. A few weeks ago the Raiders lost on a Sunday night to their division rivals when they scored a touchdown late, but with still enough time for Patrick Mahomes to drive right down the field and score the game-winner. Facing a similar situation on Saturday night in a must-win game against the Miami Dolphins, the Raiders chose to work more time off the clock - although perhaps not as much, as on one play the ball was snapped with six seconds left on the play clock - and kick the field goal. As Jon Gruden said after the game: “[w]e scored with 1:15 left and Mahomes went down and beat us. We felt the play was to eliminate all the clock and all the timeouts and put ’em with their back against the wall with 19 seconds left.” The problem? The player they put up against that wall was Ryan Fitzpatrick, who put the Dolphins in position to pull off the miracle win. And now the Raiders are going to be watching the playoffs instead of participating. Questions to ponder as 2021 looms in Las Vegas: How safe is Derek Carr? (Probably pretty safe, although the contract situation makes it a little easier for the team to move on from him should they choose). How can they fix the defense? (That one is going to take some thinking). And perhaps the big one: How safe is Gruden? Remember, he just finished the third year of a ten-year coaching deal...
Dallas Cowboys (6-9. Last week: 20)
(Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports)
They still have a chance… Perhaps the most 2020 ending possible to this NFL season would be seeing the Dallas Cowboys complete a comeback and secure the NFC East title. That remains plausible in the wake of the Cowboys’ 37-17 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. Should the Cowboys win their fourth-straight game of the season next Sunday when they take on the New York Giants, a corresponding loss by Washington to the Eagles would put Dallas into the playoffs, and hosting a game on Wild Card Weekend. Against the Eagles, Andy Dalton was the triggerman. The backup threw for 377 yards and a trio of touchdowns behind a banged-up offensive line. Speaking of trios, the talented set of Dallas wide receivers - Michael Gallup, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb - had a day. They combined for over 300 of those yards and three touchdowns, with each receiver averaging over 20 yards per reception. The three put on a route-running clinic that is worth a watch if you get a chance. With how the quarterback situation is playing out in Washington and the struggles we have seen in the past few weeks from the Giants, you might say the odds are pretty decent that the Cowboys indeed pull this off. Out of the three teams with a chance at the NFC East, which one is playing the best football right now? It's Dallas.
Los Angeles Rams (9-6. Last week: 14)
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According to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), even in the wake of the Los Angeles Rams’ loss to the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday afternoon the Rams have almost a 90% chance at still getting into the postseason. With a win next week over the Arizona Cardinals, or a loss by the Chicago Bears (against the Green Bay Packers), the Rams are in. That fact is probably of little comfort to Rams fans given how the team has played recently, and the status of their quarterback. A week after losing to the New York Jets the Rams again turned in a lackluster performance, scoring just nine points in a 20-9 loss to the Seahawks. In the loss Jared Goff struggled, completing 24 of 43 passes for 234 yards and an interception, for an NFL passer rating of just 61.6. After the game it emerged that Goff had broken his right thumb in the loss, suffering a dislocation in the process, and his status for Week 17 is in jeopardy. Goff’s backup? John Wolford. He has yet to attempt a regular season pass in the NFL. But he did complete 63.1% of his throws fr 1,617 yards and 14 touchdowns, against just seven interceptions, for the Arizona Hotshots of the AAF in that league’s only season of existence. In the season opener he threw for four touchdowns in a win over the Salt Lake Stallions and was named the AAF Offensive Player of the Week. Look. It’s something...
Arizona Cardinals (8-7. Last week: 13)
(Billy Hardiman-USA TODAY Sports)
As we saw last week, sometimes pride can play a role in the fate of NFL teams. Whether it was the Cincinnati Bengals knocking off the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football or the San Francisco 49ers toppling the Arizona Cardinals this weekend, teams that seem to have nothing to play for can be the most dangerous opponents for teams with everything to play for. That was the case in Saturday’s 20-12 loss by the Cardinals. Looking to secure a playoff spot with a win and a loss by the Chicago Bears, Arizona struggled on offense to move the football and could not stop C.J. Beathard, who threw three touchdown passes in the stunning win for the 49ers. Making matters worse is the fact that quarterback Kyler Murray injured his leg late in the game, which could put his status for the season finale in doubt. If - IF - the Cardinals sputter down the stretch and miss the playoffs, there might be room for a debate over the future of Kliff Kingsbury. While the Cardinals making the playoffs this season might be a year ahead of expectations, how the team has fared this season given their 5-2 start does raise some questions. Since that overtime win over the Seattle Seahawks to improve to 5-2 the Cardinals have lost five of eight games, and one of the wins was the Hail Murray miracle over the Buffalo Bills. Head-scratching decisions by Kingsbury in losses to the New England Patriots and on Saturday against the 49ers - such as going for a fourth-down in Arizona territory with 9:04 left in a two-point game - are going to be remembered.
Chicago Bears (8-7. Last week: 15)
(Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports)
Prior to Sunday’s games, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that due to a recent stretch of good play from quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, the Chicago Bears were giving strong consideration to bringing the QB back next season. With wins over the Houston Texans and the Minnesota Vikings, the Bears were at .500 on the season entering Week 16. That, coupled with losses from the Vikings and the Arizona Cardinals on Saturday, meant the Bears’ slim playoff hopes were alive and ticking. Trubisky perhaps rewarded that confidence with a strong performance on Sunday. In a big win over the Jacksonville Jaguars Trubisky completed 24 of 35 passes for 265 yards and a touchdown. While he did throw an interception, the third-straight win for Chicago kept their playoff hopes intact, and with a win next week over the Green Bay Packers, or a loss by Arizona, Chicago is in. One thing to keep in mind, however, is this. Trubisky’s run of good play has come against the Texans, the Vikings and the Jaguars. Those are some of the worst defenses in the league. And when you dive into his game against Jacksonville, some of the reads, throws and decisions do not inspire a ton of confidence. But still, it could be enough to get Chicago into the dance.
Cleveland Browns (10-5. Last week: 5)
The Cleveland Browns entered Week 16 with numerous pathways to the playoffs. Despite missing a number of key players, they would be squaring off with the 1-13 New York Jets. A win coupled with a loss by the Indianapolis Colts, and the Browns would be back in the playoffs. Now, they’re not just missing players, they might be missing out. For the second-straight week the Jets knocked off a potential playoff team as New York stunned Cleveland at MetLife Stadium. The Jets got out to a 13-3 lead at halftime and Baker Mayfield’s 53 passing attempts were not enough to lead the comeback. A costly fourth-down fumble on Cleveland’s final drive by Mayfield was his third of the game, and this one came with the Browns deep in New York territory trailing by one score. The shift in their playoff odds probably tells the story: https://twitter.com/TampaBayTre/status/1343326161095581698 Like we said last week with the Los Angeles Rams, if you lose to the New York Jets in 2020 - even with missing players - you are going to drop in these rankings. These are the rules... The loss was described by “gut-wrenching” by Jeff Risdon, who also noted something interesting about the play-calling from Kevin Stefanski in this piece following the game: “The run/pass split is something Kevin Stefanski will question, and will be questioned of him. Cleveland threw the ball 53 times and ran just 18. With Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt healthy and every wide receiver anyone knows out. Game script certainly dictated some of it, and the lack of effective running early likely played a factor too. But that’s going too far against the culture for the offense.” The Browns can still get in with a win next week over the Pittsburgh Steelers, or a loss by the Colts. But this is one that got away.
Indianapolis Colts (10-5. Last week: 4)
(AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)
The Indianapolis Colts were less than 30 minutes away from dealing the Pittsburgh Steelers a fourth-straight loss and keeping their own playoff destiny in their hands. Now they need help. After building a 24-7 lead early in the second half the Colts surrendered 21 unanswered points to the Steelers, eventually falling by a final score of 28-24. Indianapolis had the ground game working in the first half, as rookie Jonathan Taylor had a pair of touchdown runs in the first two quarters, and a Zach Pascal 42-yard touchdown reception from Rivers helped the Colts build that 21-7 lead. But in the second half the Colts struggled to move the football, and they did not score after a 28-yard field goal from Rodrigo Blankenship on their opening possession of the third quarter. Following that possession, what did the Colts do? Three plays and a punt. Three plays and a punt. Five plays and a punt. An interception. And a turnover on downs on their final possession. Now, just to get into the playoffs, the Colts need to A: Beat the Jaguars, who have the first-overall draft pick locked up so who knows what you’ll see from them and B: Get losses from either Cleveland, Miami or Baltimore to win as the wildcard OR a loss from the Tennessee Titans in Week 17 to clinch the AFC South.
Tennessee Titans (10-5. Last week: 6)
(Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports)
During the Touchdown Wire Week 16 Matchup Podcast Doug Farrar and I discussed how everything pointed to "potential badness" for one of the teams squaring off on Sunday Night Football. We were right about the badness, but wrong about the team. While we expected the Green Bay Packers defense, and specifically their sub packages, to struggle with Derrick Henry instead it was the Titans defense struggling to slow down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' passing attack. Yes, there were some questionable calls that went against the Titans, such as a potential out-of-bounds moment on a touchdown run and a phantom offsides penalty, but this game illustrated a potential fear in Tennessee: When the game script gets away from them a bit and their defense struggles to get stops, they can find themselves in a bad position. That happened against Cleveland a few weeks ago, and it happened on Sunday night. At least there aren't that many great offenses in the AFC right now...
Miami Dolphins (10-5. Last week: 11)
(Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
When an injured Kirk Gibson homered off Dennis Eckersley to win Game 1 of the 1988 World Series, Jack Buck delivered the memorable call on the radio broadcast with the words “I don’t believe what I just saw.” (As an aside, you’re probably getting an urge to watch the at-bat so here’s a link. Don’t forget to look for the taillights of a vehicle leaving the stadium parking lot come on as the driver slams the breaks, likely instantly furious they left early). Anyway, that’s how I felt about the Saturday night tilt between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Miami Dolphins. Brian Flores turned to Ryan Fitzpatrick yet again and the veteran delivered, driving the Dolphins into range for the game-winning field goal on a throw - and penalty - that is pure art: https://twitter.com/MichaelKistNFL/status/1343050016416534528 That’s right. Fitzpatrick completed this pass for a huge gain, the facemask penalty added 15 yards, and it all occurred with just seconds left in the game. After the win Flores indicated that Tua Tagovailoa would be the starter for Miami’s season finale, and there is time to debate that decision. For now, revel in the fact that once again one of the most fun players to watch in the NFL delivered a late holiday season miracle for Miami.
Baltimore Ravens (10-5. Last week: 10)
(Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports)
A few weeks ago the Baltimore Ravens were 6-5, they had lost three-straight games and they looked like a team headed in the completely wrong direction. Now they are winners of four-straight games and control their own playoff destiny. The Ravens picked the right time to come together, as their win over the New York Giants puts them in the driver’s seat for one of the Wild Card spots in the AFC. Right now the Ravens sit in the sixth-spot in the AFC playoff race, thanks to losses by the Cleveland Browns and the Indianapolis Colts. On Sunday against the Giants Lamar Jackson notched a pair of touchdown passes and Gus Edwards led the way with 85 rushing yards on 15 carries. Furthermore their defense stifled the New York offense until the fourth quarter, as the Giants did not find the end zone until the final fifteen minutes of play. Baltimore’s reward? A season finale against the Cincinnati Bengals. Yes, Cincinnati has won two-straight games, but the Ravens seem like that proverbial team “getting hot at the right time” as January approaches.
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3. Last week: 12)
(Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)
Just when everyone had written them off, the Pittsburgh Steelers gave their fans - and the NFL at-large - reasons to believe in them again. Facing their toughest test of the final few weeks after three-straight losses, the Steelers responded with a 28-24 comeback victory over the Indianapolis Colts to stem the bleeding and secure the AFC North division title. Ben Roethlisberger, facing the bulk of the recent criticism, completed 34 of 49 passes for 342 yards and three touchdowns in the win. Another Steeler facing recent criticism, wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, had one of his best recent performances as he caught nine passes for 96 yards and a touchdown. The Colts actually got out to a 21-7 lead at the half and added a field goal to open the third quarter to push their lead to 24-7. But that is when Roethlisberger and company caught fire. Rather than pack things in due to their recent run of play the Steelers put together three-straight touchdown drives to take the lead, with Roethlisberger’s touchdown strike to Smith-Schuster from 25 yards out giving them the lead. An interception from Mike Hilton with six minutes to go, coupled with the Steelers defense forcing a failed fourth-down try on the final Indianapolis possession, sealed the win. The win, coupled with Cleveland’s loss, takes a bit of the shine out of the Week 17 finale. But that is a problem the Steelers are probably rather happy to have given what transpired the past few weeks.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-5. Last week: 9)
(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)
Could the Tampa Bay Buccaneers also be heating up at the exact right moment? Since their bye week a few weeks ago, the Buccaneers have won three-straight games, scoring 26, 31 and now 47 points thanks to their rout of the Detroit Lions on Saturday. The win helped the Buccaneers end the second-longest playoff drought as Tampa Bay secured their first postseason spot since 2007. In the win, Tom Brady threw for four touchdowns as he carved up a Lions secondary that has been bad, if not woeful, this season. Brady completed 22 of 27 for 348 yards and the four scores, the first coming on a perfectly-executed slot fade to Rob Gronkowski. He also connected with Mike Evans on another seam route for a score in the vertical passing game. Now looking ahead, the Buccaneers close their season out with a game against the Atlanta Falcons, a team they dropped 31 points on a week ago. If this offense stays hot, it might be enough in a wide-open NFC.
Seattle Seahawks (11-4. Last week: 8)
(Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports)
It was not pretty, but the Seattle Seahawks clinched the NFC West the hard way, with a tough 20-9 victory over the Los Angeles Rams. Now if you took the time to spin through #SeahawksTwitter around halftime, you might have seen some questions about the offense, the team and even the quarterback. The game was tied at the break and the offense was not their first-half numbers were rather dismal: 35 plays, 111 yards, three punts and two field goals. And a partridge in a pear tree… But in the second half the offense finally broke through. A touchdown scamper from Russell Wilson on the opening drive of the third quarter gave Seattle the lead, and then this happened in the fourth quarter: https://twitter.com/Seahawks/status/1343384927346196480 Wilson hit tight end Jacob Hollister in the back left corner of the end zone for the score, and the division. With the NFC West secured, the Seahawks can now think about positioning. They still have an outside shot at the first-round bye, if they win in Week 17 and the Green Bay Packers and the New Orleans Saints both lose. Oh, and remember Seattle fans, that was a damn good defense that the Seahawks faced Sunday. And yours might just be getting better at the right time.
New Orleans Saints (11-4. Last week: 7)
(Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports)
Yes they hung 52 points on the Minnesota Vikings. Yes, Alvin Kamara scored six touchdowns, tying an NFL record. Yes, Kamara ran for 155 yards. Yes, the New Orleans Saints won the NFC South and clinched a home playoff game on Wild Card Weekend. But there are still things to be worried about if you are a Saints fan. Since returning from his multiple rib fractures, Drew Brees has looked rather human. He completed less than 50% of his passes in his Week 15 return against the Kansas City Chiefs, and while his completion percentage jumped dramatically in Week 16 against the Minnesota Vikings, he still threw a pair of interceptions and did not find the end zone. He was saved from a third interception when a seam route up the left side that was wildly off the mark was broken up by his receiver. To be fair, Brees is coming back from rib fractures which are difficult to play through. This is why the Saints badly need that first-round bye, which means they’ll need a little help from the Tennessee Titans in Week 16 and the Chicago Bears in Week 17.
Buffalo Bills (11-3. Last week: 3)
(Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports)
https://twitter.com/MarkSchofield/status/1343745202591313920 It's like when Happy Gilmore learned to putt. But this season Josh Allen is starting to deliver some moments that leave you scratching your head and wondering how in the word you defend him. Whether it was a seam route throw to Dawson Knox against a spot-drop Cover 3 look that he fit in over the dropping linebacker and in front of the safety, or a scramble drill throw late into the front corner of the end zone that should have been a touchdown, or his touchdown late in the first half to Stefon Diggs that was put on the money, with perfect velocity while the QB had a defender in his face. Those moments where you just throw your notepad across the room and mutter "this freakin' guy." https://twitter.com/BuffaloBills/status/1343745587456454657 Which is exactly what I did during the touchdown from Diggs. Prior to the year the biggest question mark facing the Bills was the quarterback. Now? Now that might be their biggest strength.
Green Bay Packers (12-3. Last week: 2)
Snow. Lambeau Field. Sunday Night Football in Week 16 during the holidays. A game between two of the top teams in their respective conferences with playoff implications. The football gods conspired to give fans perhaps the best of the NFL on Sunday night. Then the game kicked off and the Green Bay Packers looked dominant from there. Aaron Rodgers continued his march towards a potential MVP trophy and Davante Adams remains one of the toughest players in the league to cover in man coverage situations: https://twitter.com/Nate_Tice/status/1343406604838825984 Now, the Packers can focus on locking up Lambeau Field for the playoffs. A win next Sunday against the Chicago Bears and Green Bay secures the first-round bye in the NFC. They can still secure that position with a loss by the Seattle Seahawks, but you can bet the Packers would love to handle business on their own, and potentially boot Chicago from the playoffs in the process.
Kansas City Chiefs (14-1. Last week: 1)
(Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports)
The Kansas City Chiefs secured the top seed in the AFC with a hard-fought 17-14 win over the Atlanta Falcons. Patrick Mahomes struggled in the early going but found Marcus Robinson with under two minutes to go to give the Chiefs’ the go-ahead touchdown. The win, however, again illustrates what could be the potential Achilles’ heel for Kansas City with the playoffs looming. Matt Ryan had a strong day for the Falcons, throwing for 300 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the loss. Kansas City’s defense is good, but can give up some plays in the passing game. That could spell trouble for the Chiefs when they face more complete teams in the playoffs. However, luckily for them they have Mahomes. Even on days when he struggles, he is often still good enough in the end. That was a recipe the Chiefs rode to the Super Bowl last season, and it could still be enough this season.
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