Week 16 Naughty or Nice?
Matt Harmon and Dalton Del Don run through their naughty or nice list for this week's slate of games.
Video Transcript
MATT HARMON: We're gonna give out some naughty or nice. We're gonna put some players on the list here today and decide if over the weekend they're gonna give Fantasy players a beautiful performance or a bunch of coal in their stocking or whatever it is Santa Claus is doing these days. I don't know. Let's start off with the guy that you've been talking to me about all week long here in Dalvin Cook.
[MUSIC PLAYING]
DALTON DEL DON: I didn't get the sweater memo. But I threw on a Santa hat for Trey Lance behind me here for the festive-- festivities here. Dalvin Cook is my first guy. He's been a Fantasy disappointment this year mostly. But he still dominated usage in Minnesota's backfield. The Vikings have struggled to run since trading for TJ Hockenson. But that includes a stretch of incredibly tough run defenses before last week when Cook finished his Fantasy's number two Fantasy back.
He now gets a Giants run defense, allowing an NFL high 5.4 yards per carry and nearly 150 yards from scrimmage per game to running backs. Cook has averaged 110 yards from scrimmage with 6 touchdowns at home this season. In a week filled with low over unders and match ups dealing with poor weather, he plays indoors on a Vikings offense with one of the highest totals on the slate. So I say Cook delivers a nice present for Fantasy managers this week.
MATT HARMON: All right. So people are gonna be feeling pretty good. They walk downstairs. Dalvin Cook's just under the tree. They're gonna feel really good about that, not weird at all. Let's say another running back in the NFL, another big name sitting under the tree in the morning you're not feeling so good about.
DALTON DEL DON: Yeah, Joe Mixon's on the naughty list. He continues to see nice work as a receiver. But he's losing more and more carries to Samaje Perine, who's arguably played better this season. Mixon has averaged more than 125 scrimmage yards at home but fewer than 65 yards on the road.
Meanwhile, New England has allowed the fewest yards per play at home, the second fewest Fantasy points to running backs and an NFL low 6 rushing scores this year. Mixon has only been a top five RB once all season back in week nine. He hasn't put up top 15 numbers in any week since. So again, the target should be there. And I'm not saying to bench Mixon. But expectations need to be tempered in a tough match up.
MATT HARMON: One guy we've definitely juiced up expectations the last couple of weeks after he's been the best running back in Fantasy for two weeks in a row, it's Jerick McKinnon officially on Dalton Del Dan's nice list.
DALTON DEL DON: Oh, yeah. It's crazy. [? Jet ?] has been the top scoring Fantasy back in consecutive weeks while Isaiah Pacheco has also averaged 16 opportunities over that span. McKinnon has quietly been dominating red zone snaps as well as the high value touches in a Kansas City offense, averaging the most yards per play to best-- most EPA per play and the most points per game this season.
Yes, his recent Fantasy production's probably unsustainable. But McKinnon is getting the second most yards per touch this year. And he's seen 17 targets from Patrick Mahomes over the last two games. Casey has easily the highest implied team total this week when Clyde Edwards-Helaire remains out. And the Chiefs will be facing a Seattle team that's allowed the second most rushing touchdowns and the second most Fantasy points to running backs this season. So keep writing McKinnon in your fantasy playoffs.
MATT HARMON: I know I said this to you on the "Stat Nerd" podcast earlier this week, Dalton, like, oh, yeah. Jerick McKinnon used to be Dalvin Cook's backup in Minnesota. Guy was literally Adrian Peterson's backup. He was the guy that we were all like, why isn't Matt Asiata at the goal line, like, in 2014, 2015?
It was insane. I mean, this guy's been around forever. But he is officially on the nice list. You love to see it. The Jerick McKinnon truthers are finally, finally having their day.
Not gonna be a good day for two NFL teams on Sunday, Dalton. I know I just decried the weather early on. But how about you go ahead and put some guys on the naughty-- hey, Santa, no fly zone over these two cities this week.
DALTON DEL DON: Yeah, most involved in the Saints/Browns game. I know, Harmon, you're tired of weather. And we can overrate it at times for sure. But realize last week's game in Buffalo everyone was scared about, that game still had a 45 point over under. This Browns/Saints games total is 32 points, just crazy low.
They're calling for 30 mile per hour sustained winds, gusts up to 50. Supposed to feel like negative 14 degrees at kickoff. Going to be tough to pass.
Deshaun Watson has been one of the league's most inaccurate quarterbacks since his return. You're sitting him here. Amari Cooper, yes, he's at home. But he's battling a hip injury along with the wind. Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry have already both been ruled out. Andy Dalton's prop line is 135 passing yards for this game, the lowest ever.
And finally, I know the Andy Behrens doesn't wanna to hear it. But Alvin Kamara may also bring coal to his Fantasy managers this week despite the plus match up on paper. Kamara has averaged more than 120 yards from scrimmage at home, fewer than 60 on the road this season without any scores. In fact, Kamara has more lost fumbles this year than he has scored touchdowns. And he ran fewer routes than David Johnson last week. So he's another shaky start in this match up with one of the lowest projected totals you'll ever see in the NFL.
MATT HARMON: Hey, Dalton, I know how to read between the lines with you, buddy. All I heard there was 15 Taysom Hill touches coming in this game, which is definitely--
DALTON DEL DON: Exactly.
MATT HARMON: --Fantasy coal.
DALTON DEL DON: [LAUGHS]
MATT HARMON: Yeah, that's Fantasy coal for most people out there. Hey, Dalton, appreciate you, buddy. Thanks so much. Merry Christmas. And happy holidays to you. We'll see you soon.