Week 10 Expected Points: Beating the Wide Receiver Bye Week Blues

Earlier this week, I published my Week 9 Snap Report, highlighting some running backs who saw encouraging snap shares in their season-openers. This expected points column will work somewhat in conjunction with my weekly snap reports.

For those unfamiliar, expected points apply point values to players’ opportunities based on a number of factors such as down, distance, and where they were on the field when they received said opportunities. Players can then score above or below their expected points based on what they do with their opportunities — which we know as fantasy points over expected.

In hopes of pinpointing some deeper plays to make on a week-to-week basis, I’ll utilize what we’ve seen in expected points to highlight some players who could be slept on heading into upcoming weeks.

Under each position, I will also provide tables of expected fantasy points from the previous week, sorted by the most to the fewest expected fantasy points.

Week 10 byes: KC, LAR, MIA, PHI

NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com and RBSDM.com. All scoring is based on full-PPR leagues.

Running Backs

Week 9 Expected Points

Aaron Jones (GB, 20.9 Expected Points)

Fantasy managers holding out for a triumphant return from Aaron Jones got exactly that in Week 9 against the Rams. The Packers' RB1 had been slowed by a hamstring injury suffered in Week 1 against the Bears and was off to a slow start since returning from the team's Week 6 bye.

In Weeks 7 and 8, Jones managed just 103 scoreless yards on 25 opportunities (12.5 opportunities/gm). While the volume was somewhat there, the production we hoped for was a long way off.

That changed in Week 9, when Jones saw 26 opportunities — a season-high, which he converted into 99 total yards and one touchdown, good for 19.8 fantasy points and an RB8 finish on the week.

In weeks when Jones and A.J. Dillon have shared a backfield this season, Jones has handled 49.7 percent of the Packers' running back opportunities. However, it's fair to question whether or not Week 9 was the "most healthy" Jones has been in any of those five games. After exiting with his injury in Week 1, Jones looked like a shell of himself in a Week 4 loss to the Lions, and we know he was limited in Weeks 7 and 8.

Barring any setbacks, the 26 opportunities we saw on Sunday against the Rams are somewhere in the neighborhood of what we can expect going forward. Despite his injuries, Jones is still averaging a robust 5.4 yards per touch to Dillon's 3.9, bringing far more versatility in the passing game. Jones and the Packers get a Steelers defense that has allowed 22.7 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs over the last five weeks. They're also allowing the fourth-highest YCO/ATT (3.00) and the seventh-most yards per carry (4.5).

Another high-volume day from Jones should be more than enough to put him in the conversation as a high-end RB2 in Week 10.

Tony Pollard (DAL, 13.0 Expected Points)

Currently ranked as the RB18 in fantasy points per game, it's safe to say the Tony Pollard experience hasn't been what fantasy managers hoped for when drafting him this offseason.

The Cowboys' unquestioned RB1 ranks seventh among all running backs in expected points (127.4) but has negative 18 fantasy points expected — ranking 122nd among 128 running backs. As his expected points indicate, the opportunity has been there for Pollard. His 32 percent opportunity share is tied for the eighth-highest, and he's handled 41-of-56 running back opportunities in the red zone.

Pollard's fantasy struggles are primarily tied to the Cowboys' scoring woes in the red zone. The team ranks 29th in red zone touchdown rate (43.8 percent), trailing only the Giants, Titans, and Jets — a group no team ever wants to be affiliated with.

With that being said, there's never been a time to play Pollard quite like this week. In addition to facing the Tommy DeVito-led Giants, which should create plenty of offensive possessions for the Cowboys, Pollard also faces a defense allowing the fifth-highest explosive run rate (6.0 percent) and a YPC of 4.6. Their 1.89 yards before contact per touch are also the most of any defense, and they are a week removed from trading defensive end Leonard Williams.

The Cowboys are an insane 16.5-point favorite over the Giants on the Bet MGM sportsbook, which is a nice way of saying there should be plenty of positive game script for Pollard in this one. Averaging a career-low 2.62 YCO/ATT and 6.6 yards per reception, Pollard's efficiency is well off his career numbers. That said, his only two touchdowns of the season came in a Week 1 blowout of the Giants, where he averaged a solid 5.1 yards per touch.

Week 10 is the get-right week Pollard and his fantasy managers need. We hope our magazine cover boy can deliver.

James Cook (BUF, 8.9 Expected Points)

Much like Tony Pollard, James Cook is in a get-right position in Week 10 against the Broncos. The biggest threat to Cook could be Leonard Fournette, so if Fournette is active, play Cook at your own risk.

However, any running back who sees significant run against a run defense that's allowing the most rushing yards per game (154.1), the second-most yards after contact per attempt (3.30), and the third-most yards before contact per attempt (1.60), needs to take advantage of this blowup spot.

Among running backs averaging 10 or more rush attempts per game, Cook ranks 15th in explosive run rate (4.6 percent), has the fifth-lowest stuff rate (39.8 percent), and has the fifth-highest yards per carry (5.3). He's struggled to create after contact as of late but is also among the league leaders in yards before contact per attempt (2.14). His lack of receiving upside in recent weeks is hurting him, as he's averaged just two targets per game over the last month, but Cook can still gouge opponents on the ground.

Things haven't been great for Cook as of late, but he's still seen 14 or more touches in three of his last four games, with last week's negative game script throwing things out of whack. He'll be a boom-or-bust RB2 against a defense that's allowed 23.6 points per game to running backs over the last five weeks.

Wide Receivers

Week 9 Expected Points

Tank Dell (HOU, 19.0 Expected Points)

Texans rookie Tank Dell had one of the most impressive college profiles of any receiver entering the draft. With a career YAC/REC of 6.0 and a YPRR of 2.57, Dell proved to be an explosive rookie during his time at the University of Houston and was the preferred pick of quarterback C.J. Stroud during the 2023 NFL Draft.

A concussion sidelined Dell for Week 6, but through the first five weeks, he had totaled 19-324-2 on 28 targets (5.6 trgs/gm) and had three games of 57 or more receiving yards. A 5-145-1 line in Week 3 against the Jaguars was the breakout performance we all hoped to see after taking late-round flyers on him all offseason.

Last week against a lousy Buccaneers' pass defense, Dell was funneled a season-high 11 targets, which he turned into 6-114-2, scoring the game-winning touchdown in the Week 9 shootout.

While he's not quite a target hog, Dell's 0.21 targets per route run are neck-and-neck with WR1 Nico Collins' 0.22 TPRR. He's deployed both out wide (66.7 percent) and in the slot (31.9% percent) and is currently seventh amongst qualified receivers (min. five trgs/gm) with 16.2 YPR.

The efficiency we saw from Dell in college has flashed through his first seven pro games, as he's currently top-30 in YAC/REC (4.10), aDOT (14.2), and YPRR (2.26). Being tethered to one of the best rookie quarterbacks of the last decade certainly helps.

This week, fantasy managers are down Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle — to name a few. With so many elite options out, Dell will be on the fantasy radar as a high-end WR2 in another exciting matchup against the Bengals.

Demario Douglas (NE, 11.0 Expected Points)

With Kendrick Bourne out in Week 9 against the Commanders, Demario Douglas stepped up to catch five passes for 55 yards on seven targets — tying for the team lead. I mentioned Douglas last week, saying he'd be hard to trust as anything more than a WR4, but he turned in high-end WR3 numbers (10.5 fantasy points) and finished as the overall WR27 on the week.

As I previously mentioned, with so many high-end wide receivers out this week, there's a chance for other lower-end receivers to play more meaningful roles in Week 10.

Douglas should once again have fringe WR3 upside this weekend against the Colts. His 11.0 expected points from last week ranked 20th on the week, and his 35.6 EP over the last three weeks is good for 22nd — narrowly edging out guys like Tyler Lockett, Mike Evans, and Jakobi Meyers. All three receivers have played the same number of games as Douglas over that span.

Douglas gets a Colts defense allowing the ninth-most receiving yards per game (255.7) and facing the eighth-most targets (298). They're middle-of-the-road in both EPA per dropback (0.001) and dropback success rate (45.2 percent). With DeVante Parker already ruled out for the game, Douglas should have a chance to lead the team in targets once again, establishing a low but reliable fantasy floor.

Curtis Samuel (WAS)

This one's a bit of a deep cut, but hear me out. Again, we are trying to get through a week that's lacking receiver depth up top.

For starters, Samuel missed Week 9 against the Patriots with a toe/foot injury. He's been limited in each of the first two practices to start this week and is trending toward playing. If he is out, take this portion of the article as a Jamison Crowder out, as Crowder filled in for Samuel and had 10.6 EP in last week's win.

Operating as the primary slot receiver for the Commanders, Samuel (71.1 percent slot rate) has been targeted on 19.2 percent of his routes and is averaging 5.4 targets per game. Playing in a pass-heavy offense that's been willing to air it out regardless of down, situation, or game script (8.6 PROE), Samuel and the Commanders face a defense that's been targeted in the slot at a 36.6 percent rate — the fifth-highest in the league.

Samuel should have some WR3/WR4 upside in deep PPR leagues if he's healthy and playing.

Tight Ends

Week 8 Expected Points

Taysom Hill (NO, 24.3 Expected Points)

See Taysom pass. See Taysom run. See Taysom catch. The do-it-all gadget player who retained tight end eligibility in the majority of leagues hit a new high in Week 9 against the Bears when he led all Saints players with a 27 percent opportunity share.

Four straight weeks as a top-12 fantasy tight end has left Hill's fantasy managers with no choice but to start him until the usage/luck runs out.

Hill faces a Vikings defense that's allowed 16.1 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends over the last five weeks, but it's hard to quantify how that impacts Hill, who is far from the traditional "tight end."

This season, Hill has 49 rush attempts — Browns tight end Harrison Bryant is next closest with three. His 2.8 targets rival the likes of Noah Gray, Connor Heyward, and Mike Gesicki, who aren't worth rostering in fantasy. Alas, it matters not because Hill is not like them.

He is the inexplicably good gimmick that regularly pays off, and at a position already so thin at fantasy points, those who have him can't afford not to play him in Week 10 against the Vikings. Among players with at least 40 rush attempts, Hill's 5.2 yards per carry is tied for fifth with Breece Hall, and his 3.16 YCO/ATT is 10th, narrowly behind the likes of Derrick Henry, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Bijan Robinson.

Hill is currently the TE4 in expected fantasy points (97.3). Those ahead of him are names you know.

With eight weeks left in the fantasy season, it's fair to question whether or not Hill's production is sustainable. All I know is we must ride the wave until it runs out or washes us up on the shore of a fantasy championship.

Dalton Schultz (HOU, 20.0 Expected Points)

When Dalton Schultz is good, he's good. The Texans' TE1 has four complete duds on his 2023 resumé but has also turned in four top-12 weeks. When he's not making fantasy managers regret starting him, Schultz is averaging 19.5 fantasy points per game and peaked at 29 fantasy points last week against the Buccaneers.

Despite his high-variance weeks, Schultz currently ranks ninth among tight ends in targets (50), 11th in receptions (33), and 12th in receiving yards (350). His four touchdowns are good for fourth-most at the position.

The Texans, who have been relatively run-heavy, turned in the fifth-highest early-down pass rate in Week 9 against the Buccaneers (62.8 percent), which led to a 10-130-1 day for Schultz on 10 targets. The game script was ripe for fantasy scoring, as the Texans and Buccaneers went back and forth all afternoon, but a similar shootout could be on tap in Week 10 against the Bengals.

The Bengals have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends (16.7) over the last five weeks, although the likes of George Kittle and Dalton Kincaid inflate that by a substantial amount. Still, fantasy managers questioning whether or not they should buy last week's outburst can safely put him on their fantasy radar this week.