Week 1 Start 'Em or Sit 'Em
You’ve seen it before in the fantasy community, but Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is a new weekly in-season column I’ll be handling here at Rotoworld this season. I’ll dive into the matchups and pick out a handful of players that I like and dislike from each of the four skill positions. It’s a pretty self-explanatory concept that doesn’t need much introduction and is geared toward redraft leagues but can also be used for setting DFS lineups. Now, I’m not going to sit here and waste your time telling you to start the Andrew Lucks, Rob Gronkowskis, and Le’Veon Bells of the world this season because you guys and gals already know this. I’ll dive a little deeper than that. But I am going to avoid the Thursday night game each week. So, without further ado, let’s get to Week 1’s starts and sits. It feels good to be back.
QUARTERBACK
Start of the Week Matt Ryan vs. Eagles — This game has the highest projected over-under of the week at 55 points, and Atlanta is the underdog. If we’re to trust Vegas — and I’m one that does — Ryan will be throwing the ball a ton. The Eagles are also the highest-paced offense in football, which should lead to more plays for Ryan and the Falcons. Home in the Georgia Dome where the “weather” will be as perfect as it gets, Ryan will be in his most comfortable environment. The Eagles have a strong front-seven, but are still sorting out the back end, particularly at corner behind Byron Maxwell.
Starts
Sam Bradford at Falcons — The Bradford hype is at an all-time high after his 13-of-15 passing for 156 yards and three touchdowns preseason coming off back-to-back torn ACLs. The game total is projected at 55 points with the Eagles expected to be the highest-scoring team of the weekend at 29 points. Bradford has the best receiving corps of his career in Philadelphia. The Falcons hired ex-Seahawks DC Dan Quinn as coach, but he has a lot of work to do with this defense. Atlanta allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season and don’t have much of a pass rush. Bradford also gets the luxury of playing in a dome.
Carson Palmer vs. Saints — Palmer played just five full games last season before tearing his ACL. From the great Rich Hribar’s Week 1 Worksheet, Palmer’s finishes in those five starts were QB5, QB16, QB13, QB10, and QB7. Palmer has a tendency to turn the ball over, but he also has explosive offensive weapons in John Brown, Michael Floyd, and Andre Ellington in addition to sure-handed veteran Larry Fitzgerald. The Saints will be without top corner Keenan Lewis (hip) and FS Jairus Byrd (knee). Brandon Browner will have to act as the No. 1 corner and can’t stop speed receivers like Brown. Arizona is projected to be one of the highest-scoring teams of the week at 25.5 points.
Eli Manning at Cowboys — The Giants ran the fourth-most plays in the league last season and passed the ball a ton toward the end of it. They’ll probably try to even go a little bit faster in the second year of OC Ben McAdoo’s offense. And the passing game is what butter’s their bread. In two games against Dallas last season, Manning completed 50-of-73 (68.4 percent) throws for 586 yards (8.02 YPA) and a 6:1 TD:INT ratio. Seventy-three passes across two games is an astronomical number, and with an over-under of 51.5 and the Giants as six-point underdogs, Manning will have to uncork a boatload of passes again.
Ryan Tannehill at Redskins — This game doesn’t have a high projected total at just 43 points, but the Dolphins are 3.5-point favorites on the road and have the 11th-highest team total at 23.25 points, which is an above-average mark. The Redskins’ run defense projects to be better with the additions of NT Terrance Knighton, LE Stephen Paea, and rotational DL Ricky Jean-Francois, but the back end could still be a mess with a new safety tandem of FS Dashon Goldson and SS Duke Ihenacho added to what remains a weak cornerback group led by free-agent addition Chris Culliver. The Redskins also lost stud pass rusher Junior Galette to a torn Achilles’. Tannehill has had his best offseason to date and is expected to take the next step in his development. He also gives you rushing yards.
Sits
Colin Kaepernick vs. Vikings — The 49ers are 2.5-point underdogs at home in a game with a very low over-under of 41 points. San Francisco has the fifth-lowest projected team total of Week 1 at a measly 19.25 points. Kaepernick worked on his mechanics with Kurt Warner during the offseason, and Warner really preached using his lower body to Kaepernick. Still, I want to see it before I believe it. If the preseason was any indication, Kaepernick remains an extremely-low floor passer. He’s going up against one of the more underrated secondaries in football led by emerging RCB Xavier Rhodes. Veteran Terence Newman was signed to man left corner, and rookie Trae Waynes and veteran slot corner Captain Munnerlyn will come on in sub-packages. Harrison Smith roams centerfield.
Kirk Cousins vs. Dolphins — Cousins has plenty of supporters around the league, and coach Jay Gruden named him his Week 1 starter after the third preseason game. But if Cousins has shown anything at the NFL level, it’s that he’s a turnover machine. He’ll get his yards, but the interceptions have come fast and furious. This Miami defense should absolutely wreak havoc on the Redskins’ offense, especially DT Ndamukong Suh and LE Cameron Wake vs. rookie RG Brandon Scherff and second-year RT Morgan Moses. I could easily see Washington being shutout at home. And Vegas isn’t on the Redskins’ side with a projected team total of 19.75 points.
Teddy Bridgewater at 49ers — I truly love Bridgewater as a real-life football player, but his fantasy season will surely be a mixed bag of results. With Adrian Peterson back in the fold and being backed up by talented Jerick McKinnon and short-yardage specialist Matt Asiata, the Vikings will likely be a run-oriented offense. And heading out onto the road against an NFC West team that preaches defense, I’m not a fan of this spot for Bridgewater and the Vikings’ passing attack. The game has the third-lowest over-under of the week at 41 points and will likely be dominated by both running games.
Alex Smith at Texans — Smith is rarely a suggested quarterback option, and this week definitely isn’t one of those rare occasions. Kansas City-Houston has the second-lowest over-under of the week at 40.5 points, and the Texans are stockpiled at the cornerback position with Johnathan Joseph, Kareem Jackson, and first-round rookie Kevin Johnson. J.J. Watt should also eat RT Eric Fisher and LT Donald Stephenson for lunch, while Jadeveon Clowney (hopefully) makes his return from microfracture surgery to play some pass-rushing snaps opposite Watt. The Chiefs are projected to score under 20 points, and Jamaal Charles will likely have to do all of the heavy lifting.
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RUNNING BACK
Start of the Week Eddie Lacy at Bears — If there’s one player I’m building DFS cash-game lineups around this week, it’s Lacy. He’s my favorite play of opening weekend. The Bears gave up 4.25 YPC and 11 touchdowns to opposing running backs last season and are going through a transition phase to a 3-4 defense for which they really don’t have the personnel. Jared Allen is being asked to play 3-4 outside linebacker for the first time in his life, and NT Jeremiah Ratliff is suspended to start the season. Lamarr Houston is coming off a torn ACL. It’s basically Pernell McPhee and a bunch of spare parts. The game script sets up very favorably for Lacy to get all he can eat carries-wise. The Packers are 6.5-point favorites on the road and projected to score the fourth-most points of the week (27.75).
Starts
Chris Ivory vs. Browns — Ivory is another running back with an extremely favorable Week 1 game script. New OC Chan Gailey won’t be afraid to let Ryan Fitzpatrick throw the ball around this season, but the strength of the Browns is their pass defense led by No. 1 CB Joe Haden and ballhawking FS Tashaun Gipson. Gailey will likely try to ride the running game to victory. Ivory was the clear-cut lead dog of the Jets backfield during the preseason, handling all of the early-down work with the first-team offense. The Browns were torched by running backs last season, giving up the second-most fantasy points to the position. First-round NT Danny Shelton should help Cleveland’s cause, but Ivory is a tackle-breaking rolling ball of butcher knives. He should threaten 18-20 carries Sunday.
Jonathan Stewart at Jaguars — Fantasy owners have had a hard time getting behind Stewart because of his lengthy injury history, and it made him a value pick at his fourth-round ADP. With DeAngelo Williams gone, it’s Stewart’s backfield. He had a quiet preseason, but the main takeaway was he stayed healthy. The Jaguars gave up a ton of yards (1,756) to running backs and 14 touchdowns last season, but they actually performed pretty well considering their defense faced the second-most carries (433) on the year. With Kelvin Benjamin (knee) done for the season and rookie Devin Funchess not ready to handle No. 1 duties, look for the Panthers to slow-play it on offense with Stewart, Mike Tolbert, and Cam Newton running the ball and trying to win behind the strength of their defense. The Panthers are three-point favorites on the road with a game total of 41.
Doug Martin vs. Titans — This will likely be one of, maybe the only, games Tampa Bay is favored this season. At home against the second-worst team from 2014, the Bucs are three-point favorites in a game with an over-under of 41 points. This sets up nicely for Martin to be able to get his carries and not have the Bucs lean on rookie Jameis Winston and the passing game. Martin is in a contract-year, coming off a very strong camp and preseason after dropping weight in the offseason, and ready to roll as the lead back. The only concern in Tampa Bay is the weak offensive line, but the Titans’ front isn’t strong enough to cause a severe mismatch. Tennessee allowed 21 total touchdowns, 4.4 YPC, and the most fantasy points to opposing running backs last season.
DeMarco Murray at Falcons — I’ve been beating the DeMarco Murray drum for the better part of the past month over in Twitter land. We took plenty of heat for having Murray as our No. 1 overall player in the Rotoworld Draft Guide most of summer before making some adjustments. I was still on board, however, and believed Murray was well worthy of the second pick in fantasy drafts behind Le’Veon Bell. Most sites had Murray ranked in the twenties as an RB2. You all obviously don’t need me to tell you to start Murray against the Falcons, but I think there’s a real chance he ends up as the top-scoring running back of Week 1. This Eagles offense can fully support both a passing game and running game. They ran the most plays in the league last season and want to dial it up even faster if the referees will let them. Atlanta gave up a league-high 19 rushing touchdowns to running backs in 2014. Some point to Murray not being behind the Cowboys’ league-best offensive line, but the Eagles’ one isn’t far behind. Murray could run for over 100 yards and visit the end zone twice Monday night.
Sits
Isaiah Crowell at Jets — Crowell has long frustrated the Browns’ coaching staff. He doesn’t run with much power despite his 225-pound frame nor does he catch the football well out of the backfield. The Browns have been looking for ways to either light a fire under him or take him off the field. While third-round rookie Duke Johnson hasn’t practiced much due to hamstring and brain injuries, he was cleared of a concussion Wednesday and coach Mike Pettine immediately said Johnson could play a big role against the Jets. Crowell will probably handle a lot of early-down work, but this Jets defense is ferocious up front, even without suspended LE Sheldon Richardson. And the Browns are projected to score the fewest points (18.25) of Week 1. They could easily get shutout on the road.
Alfred Morris vs. Dolphins — I avoided Morris like the plague in fantasy drafts this summer. I really don’t think the coaching staff likes him that much, and third-round rookie Matt Jones ran circles around Morris in the preseason. Jones was handpicked by the new regime, while Morris is a Shanahan & Son creation. Morris will open the season as the starter, but beat writers keep hinting at Jones getting plenty of work and possibly even splitting duties with Morris. Also working against Morris is Robert Griffin III no longer being the quarterback. It’s no secret Morris has a much better YPC average with RGIII under center as opposed to new starter Kirk Cousins. The Week 1 matchup against the Dolphins doesn’t get much tougher. Miami went out and signed the most dominant player from last season’s No. 1 run defense in DT Ndamukong Suh, and he’ll be matched up with rookie RG Brandon Scherff plenty on Sunday. I could see something like a 13-30 rushing line from Morris.
T.J. Yeldon vs. Panthers — Both Jacksonville and Carolina project to run the ball plenty on Sunday, and working in Yeldon’s favor is the strong possibility Panthers star DT Star Lotulelei (foot) misses the game. That would leave veteran journeyman Kyle Love as the starter next to Kawann Short on the inside. Yeldon has a plus offensive line blocking for him, but this Panthers defense remains strong at the first and second levels. The concern here is the Jaguars’ offense as a whole may not put Yeldon in position to score a touchdown, and I’m also interested in just what kind of workload Yeldon will see after missing a ton of preseason action with a finger injury. Denard Robinson and Toby Gerhart could steal work. Jacksonville is a three-point underdog at home and projected to score just 19.25 points.
Carlos Hyde vs. Vikings — I’m avoiding the entire 49ers offense at all costs Monday night. And while I don’t love playing D/ST units on the road, I’m actually streaming the Vikings in my one redraft league that still uses kickers and defenses. Hyde averaged 5.8 YPC in the preseason and was the lone bright spot on offense, but he’s not a special talent and is running behind a putrid offensive line that has lost RT Anthony Davis to retirement, LG Mike Iupati to the Cardinals, and projected C Daniel Kilgore to injury. Newcomers RG Jordan Devey and RT Erik Pears make up the strong side of the 49ers’ line and were two of the worst linemen in the league last season. Vikings DT Sharrif Floyd was one of the top interior run defenders last season, and fellow front-seven teammates DT Linval Joseph, SLB Anthony Barr, and LB Gerald Hodges are also well above-average against the run.
WIDE RECEIVER
Start of the Week Julio Jones vs. Eagles — As long as he stays healthy, Jones should be in for maybe his best season as a pro. Locked into X receiver duties in OC Kyle Shanahan’s offense that funnels targets to its No. 1 receiver, Jones is a candidate to finish WR1 overall. Matt Ryan might throw it 30-40 times Monday night in what projects to be the highest-scoring game of the week. Jones will likely see a lot of new Eagles No. 1 corner Byron Maxwell, but Jones is going to move around the formation plenty under Shanahan after exclusively lining up to the left under ex-OC Dirk Koetter. The Eagles’ Nos. 2 and 3 corners Nolan Carroll and Eric Rowe have been trouble spots this summer. Atlanta will do everything it can to get Jones the ball, and he should push for upwards of a dozen targets. The expectation this season is that Jones also sees an uptick in red-zone looks.
Starts
Davante Adams at Bears — Adams will probably be the highest-owned receiver in DFS this week. Following Jordy Nelson’s season-ending torn ACL in the preseason, Adams is locked into an every-down role next to Randall Cobb. The Packers spent much of the offseason talking up Adams, and it’s a perfect time for him to deliver Week 1 against a soft Bears defense. The Bears are trotting out veteran journeymen Alan Ball and Tracy Porter at cornerback behind last year’s first-rounder Kyle Fuller, who struggled mightily as a rookie. Adams and Cobb should walk these dogs all day. The Packers are projected to score the fourth-most points this week, and Adams should be a lock for six-plus targets. He has vise-grip hands and runs great routes.
Jordan Matthews at Falcons — As I stated above, this Eagles offense can support many of its weapons, especially in a game where they’re in a dome and projected to be the second-highest scoring team of the week. Sam Bradford loved to target slot WR Danny Amendola in their time together with the Rams. Matthews fills the slot role for the Eagles and just so happens to be the team’s best receiver and a preferred red-zone option. He and Bradford showed a real rapport at training camp, which should translate over into the season. Matthews is a mismatch out of the slot at 6’3/212 and should draw plenty of Falcons CB Robert Alford (5’10/186) on Monday night.
Stevie Johnson vs. Lions — Let go by the 49ers for salary-cap reasons, Johnson quickly landed on his feet in San Diego. And our own Evan Silva almost-immediately started beating the drum for Johnson Week 1 against Detroit. Johnson is a crisp route runner and immediately started hitting it off with Philip Rivers. The suspension of Antonio Gates for the first four games only made Johnson more appealing, and now Gates’ replacement, Ladarius Green, is being evaluated for a concussion that could sideline him for the opener. With the Lions being so stout against the run, this projects as a game that will be put on the plate of the Chargers’ passing attack. Johnson will see snaps out of the slot and out wide and should run a good amount of his routes against Lions journeyman slot CB Josh Wilson. He was near the bottom of Pro Football Focus’ coverage ratings last season.
John Brown vs. Saints — “Smokey” has quickly become Carson Palmer’s favorite receiver, and the two even lived and trained together in the offseason. In Palmer’s six starts last season, Brown averaged six targets per game and caught three of his five touchdowns. The two have wonderful chemistry and get to tee off against a Saints defense that will be without No. 1 CB Keenan Lewis (hip) and FS Jairus Byrd (knee), forcing Brandon Browner into No. 1 corner duties and CFL transplant rookie Delvin Breaux to No. 2. Browner really struggles to turn his hips against speed demons like Brown, so there should be a number of opportunities for Palmer and Brown to hook up deep. The Cardinals are projected to put up 25.5 points in a close game. Their strength is their pass game.
Sits
Torrey Smith vs. Vikings — Smith inked a five-year, $40 million pact with the 49ers in the offseason to serve as the field stretcher Colin Kaepernick so badly needed on the outside. He’ll mainly be tasked with running clear-out routes to free up Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis over the middle. With the 49ers expected to be one of the heavier run teams when they can be, that won’t leave a ton of targets for Smith. This projects as one of those games that will be close enough for the 49ers to run the ball as much as they’d like. And with San Francisco projected to be one of the lowest-scoring teams of Week 1, there isn’t much confidence in this passing game. Smith will be running his routes at budding star RCB Xavier Rhodes and wily veteran LCB Terence Newman.
Mike Wallace at 49ers — Wallace will have his days this season. The matchup looks good on paper from a Wallace vs. 49ers CB perspective, but I just don’t see enough passes being thrown by Teddy Bridgewater to be able to support both Wallace and No. 1 receiver Charles Johnson. I’d much prefer Johnson in this one. Vikings-49ers has a game total of 41 points, and both Minnesota and San Francisco are projected to be under the league average of 22 points as a team.
Sammy Watkins vs. Colts — Talent-wise, Watkins is one of the better young receivers in the league. He’s unfortunately stuck in the worst quarterback situation. Tyrod Taylor winning the job was probably the best outcome for everyone involved since he’ll be able to suck some of the defense to the line due to his running ability, but OC Greg Roman isn’t going to dial up enough passes for any of the Bills receivers to be consistent fantasy contributors. Watkins is the best bet for WR3 numbers this season, but he’s going to see a lot of shutdown CB Vontae Davis on Sunday.
Brandon Marshall vs. Browns — Marshall is one of the bigger bounce-back candidates in the league this season following his injury-riddled 2014 with the Bears. OC Chan Gailey loves to spread the offense out and work out of three- and four-wide sets. Marshall and Eric Decker have been cross-training in the slot, and it’ll likely be Marshall’s home for the much of the year. But word out of Cleveland is that No. 1 CB Joe Haden will be shadowing Marshall this week. Haden has had his troubles in the past, particularly against Antonio Brown, but he’s not one we want to pick on. With the Jets as home favorites and the Browns’ strength being their pass defense, this should be a game dominated by Chris Ivory and the Jets’ rushing attack.
TIGHT END
Start of the Week Greg Olsen at Jaguars — Following Kelvin Benjamin’s season-ending torn ACL and rookie Devin Funchess’ delayed progression, Olsen figures to dominate targets in Carolina. Corey Brown and Ted Ginn are the starters at receiver by default, but are nothing more than situational deep threats in a good receiving corps. In the Panthers’ regular-season dress rehearsal third preseason game, Cam Newton targeted Olsen a whopping eight times in the first half. We took it as a sign of things to come for Olsen, who is coming off career highs in catches and yards last season. Olsen could see close to 50 percent of Newton’s targets Week 1 and throughout the season.
Starts
Martellus Bennett vs. Packers — I liked Bennett a lot more before Alshon Jeffery (calf) returned to practice Wednesday. While it sounds like Jeffery should play, I still like Bennett at a weak tight end position. The Bears will be playing catch-up in a game they’re 6.5-point underdogs with a high over-under, meaning Jay Cutler is going to have to throw the ball. Bennett is the healthiest receiver he has and a notoriously fast-starter. Bennett has scored a touchdown each of the past three Week 1 games. Bennett went 9-134 and 2-45 in two meetings against the Packers last season.
Delanie Walker at Bucs — Walker is one of the more underrated tight ends heading into the season. He’s a do-it-all tight end and runs routes that play to rookie QB Marcus Mariota’s strengths in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field. The Bucs allowed the third-most catches (92) and seventh-most yards (921) to opposing tight ends last season. Coach Lovie Smith’s Tampa-2 defense plays its safeties deep, leaving the middle of the field open for tight ends.
Larry Donnell at Cowboys — With Victor Cruz (calf) set to miss Week 1 and potentially even more time after that, it opens the door for the other Giants’ pass catchers to make some noise. Donnell got off to a blistering start last season, coming out of nowhere, but really saw his numbers dip over the second half of the year. He did, however, had a 7-90 game against Dallas in Week 7. And the Cowboys surrendered the third-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends, while giving up the most catches (109) and second-most yards (1,052) in addition to 10 touchdowns.
Sits
Jordan Cameron at Redskins — Cameron was an exciting addition to Ryan Tannehill’s arsenal when he bolted the Browns in favor of the Dolphins, but he ended up having a really quiet training camp and preseason. In exhibition action, Cameron ran 29 pass routes but was targeted just three times, catching two of them for a meager six yards. Jarvis Landry projects to simply dominate the middle of the field for the Dolphins and even became Tannehill’s preferred red-zone option in the preseason. The Redskins were pitiful against tight ends last season, but Cameron’s preseason worries me.
Dwayne Allen at Bills — There’s no way one can advise sitting Andrew Luck ever, but if there was a week to do it, this would maybe be the one. The Bills are extremely tough at home and have an intimidating pass rush, while the Colts’ offensive line looks like one of the worst groups on paper. That could mean Allen has to stick in to block even more than he normally does this week. Even if he runs his normal routes, Allen and Coby Fleener cancel each other out too much to fully trust one or the other. The addition of Andre Johnson as the No. 2 receiver should also take targets away from Allen and Fleener. Allen is too touchdown-dependent and averaged just 3.9 targets per game in 2014.
Vernon Davis vs. Vikings — Davis allegedly recommitted himself to football in the offseason after sitting out part of the offseason program last season, but we still didn’t read much on the 31-year-old to get us excited for a potential bounce-back year. It’ll be near impossible for Davis to have a worse season than he did last year, but Week 1 against the Vikings won’t be when I’ll be jumping back on the bandwagon. Minnesota held tight ends in check last season, allowing the 10th-fewest points to the position. The 49ers are also expected to be one of the lower-scoring teams for Week 1.
