Washington State game is a true ‘prove it’ moment for USC football
The USC Trojans are nearly a two-touchdown favorite against the Washington State Cougars this Saturday in the Los Angeles Coliseum, which might suggest to the public that this game shouldn’t be especially close. That is not the right way to think about the game. That line should be several points lower than it currently is.
That point aside, this next statement needs to be emphasized and underlined heading into Week 6: This isn’t just another game on USC’s schedule; it’s arguably the most important game of the whole season.
Wait a minute, you might say, isn’t the Utah game the truly important game of 2022 for the Trojans? We’ll explain why the Washington State game actually means more:
UTAH REALITY
Here’s why the Washington State game is more important than Utah: If USC loses, it has to win at Utah to stay in the Pac-12 title race. If USC wins here against the Cougars, it can lose at Utah and still feel great about its chances of making the Pac-12 Championship Game.
BIG PICTURE
USC beating Washington State allows USC to lose to Utah and not fall behind the pack in the conference title chase. This means that if USC and Utah have a rematch in the Pac-12 Championship Game, USC would be in position to gain revenge, which is generally a good way to enter an important late-season contest. Beating WSU significantly increases the odds of winning the Pac-12 this year.
KINGS OF THE COLISEUM
USC, by winning every remaining game in Los Angeles this season, would guarantee at least 10 wins and would increase the odds of winning 11, given that one of its two non-L.A. games left on the schedule is a trip to Tucson to face Arizona on Oct. 29.
NOVEMBER
USC doesn’t leave the city of Los Angeles in November. Getting through this game moves the Trojans closer to the softer part of their schedule, unscathed.
10 WINS
If USC wins this game, it’s very hard to see the Trojans not winning at least 10 games in 2022. They have Arizona, Cal, and Colorado left on the slate. If they move to 6-0, they have three likely wins left. That makes nine. If they lose two out of three to Utah, UCLA and Notre Dame, they still have 10 wins. Beat Wazzu, and USC will win at least 10 if not 11.
8-1 PAC-12 RECORD
No Pac-12 team has ever gone 9-0 in conference play. 8-1 is the goal. USC will have a hard time winning in Utah, so the true goal is to win all the other non-Utah games to get to 8-1. That very much includes Washington State. With Arizona, Cal and Colorado coming up later in the season, it’s reasonable to say that a win here would make it very likely that USC will enter the Nov. 19 UCLA game with a 7-1 Pac-12 record.
SCHEDULE CRUNCH
Oregon still has to play UCLA, Oregon State, Utah, and Washington.
Washington State still has to play Oregon State, Utah, and Washington.
Washington still has to play Oregon State and Oregon.
Utah still has to play Washington State, Oregon and — this Saturday — UCLA.
Other teams are going to lose Pac-12 games. USC getting by Washington State would noticeably improve the Trojans’ standing in the conference.
REST AND RECOVERY
USC’s banged-up offensive line needs to get to the off week — Week 8, on Oct. 22 — with no more than one loss. Beating Washington State secures that goal. USC should be a lot better after the off week, when the O-line has a chance to get healthier.
MORE ON THE OFF WEEK
Put it this way: There aren’t many nightmare scenarios left for USC this season, but here’s the big one: losing to both Wazzu and Utah before the off week on Oct. 22. That’s really the one nightmare scenario for the Trojans. Beating Washington State eliminates that possibility. This is why the WSU game matters so much.
FORGET THE ALAMO
If USC wants to avoid the Alamo Bowl and shut up the critics who still think the Trojans will lose three games this season, this WSU game is a huge proving ground:
NEW YEAR'S SIX
Playing in a New Year’s Six bowl every year is the standard the Trojans intend to set under Lincoln Riley. Very simply: Beating Washington State makes it almost certain that USC will get an NY6 game this year. The Trojans should get an NY6 bowl if they win 10 games. If they beat Wazzu, they should hit 10, as explained earlier.
